Irelands PDs are no more-Today the party votes itself out of existence

A special conference of the Progressive Democrats has voted for the party to go out of existence, after the leadership stated it was no longer politically viable.
Delegates voted by holding voter registration cards aloft. The final tally was 201 votes to 161 against a motion to continue with the party.

The PDs were founded in 1985 following a split in the Haughey led FF party. This split had its genesis in the arms trial of 1970. This was an opportune time to found a new political party in Ireland as the economy was struggling.
FF TDs Desmond O’Malley, Mary Harney, Bobbie Molloy and Pearse Wyse left to form the new political party. They were joined by FG TD Michael Keating. Michael McDowell (not a TD at this time) also left FG to join the new party.

The PDs took on the mantle of tax cutters and proclaimed themselves as liberal on social issues. O’Malley and Harney when members of FF staunchly supported the disastrous FF Manifesto which swept FF to power in the 1977 general election. This give away manifesto was a major causative factor of Irelands economic problems in the 1980s. It was the brainchild of Martin O’Donoghue who also joined the new PD party. In the 1987 general election the PDs won 14 seats mainly at the expense of FG. Indeed FG never fully recovered from the PD threat until the 2007 general election.

The party’s strongholds were: Waterford city, Cork city, Limerick, Galway and parts of South Dublin.

In reality the party was an uneasy amalgam of anti- Haugheyite FFers, independents, carpetbaggers , political opportunists and extreme right wingers, many of whom failed to progress in FG and FF. It frequently in its initial stages poached FF and FG members. It never became a fully-fledged national political party. In reality the strongholds were personal fiefdoms. In most parts of Ireland, PDs were as scarce as icebergs in the Sahara. In contrast FF and FG have members in every parish. These are the eyes and ears of those parties. The PDs once proposed to remove God from the constitution-further emphasizing their lack of the common touch.

After the highs of the 1987 general election the new party gradually lost popular support. It fell into decline in Waterford and Cork. In Waterford PD TD Martin Cullen defected to FF. It lost Pat Cox following a divisive leadership contest involving Mary Harney and Cox. In its initial phase it put tax cuts and competition on the agenda. Frequently these were delivered in a cynical manner. The revenue foregone was recovered by means of Stealth Taxes.

Fortuitously for the PDs the party managed to secure the election of sufficient TDs to go into coalition with FF on four separate occasions. In essence the party became FF’s mudguard. However it had many apologists in the media.

In the 21st century the party had dispensed with any pretensions to radicalism. It binned any real commitment to tax cuts. It cynically supported FFs huge public expenditure splurges in the run in to the 2002 and 2007 general elections. In the 2002 general election it fared reasonably well by securing eight seats with a miniscule share of the vote. Some FG supporters switched to the PDs to prevent an overall FF majority. When Michael McDowell replaced Mary Harney as leader he became more FF than FF itself. McDowell continued to savagely attack FG. This was political folly as he had secured election largely with loaned FG votes. Mary Harney ran into serious difficulties as Minister for Health.

The electorate finally administered the coup de grace in the 2007 general election. The PDs returned with just two TDs- Mary Harney and Noel Grealish. The party lost high profile TDs such as McDowell, Liz O’Donnell, Tim O’Malley and Tom Parlon. It was fatally wounded even though once more it joined FF and the Greens in coalition.

Since the 2007 general election the party has continued to haemorrhage support. PD TD Noel Grealish intended to join FF.
Mercifully today the party was put out of its misery. Mary Harney intends to function as an independent whilst Fiona O’Malley and Noel Grealish will join FF. Party leader Ciaran Cannon may join FG. FG is the party, which stands to gain most as the PDs-though an FF splinter party- managed to siphon off support mainly from FG.

Fine Gael beats FF into second place in RedC/Sunday Business Post poll

The Red C poll in tomorrow's Sunday Business Post shows that for the first time since polling began, Fine Gael is 7% ahead of FF.

This public opinion poll however comes with a health warning. Red C carried out their monthly poll for the newspaper on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday - at the height of the medical card controversy. In addition opposition to education cutbacks had begun to gain momentum. The IFA has begun a campaign against cutbacks in agriculture whilst the closure of army barracks has spawned further opposition. Unemployment has risen sharply and will continue to rise in the immediate future. The increase in health charges is highly unpopular. VHI charges will also rise as a consequence of budget decisions. The underfunding of local authorities will cause a sharp rise in rates and water rates. In addition a supplementary budget cannot be ruled out- probably after next Summers Local Elections.

A fall in support for FF is not unexpected. However the scale of the fall is rather surprising. The party is down 10% to 26%.FF has shown a capacity to recover in the run in to General Elections. However the harsh decisions required to put the economy on a firm footing may sap the party's energy somewhat. The results are hugely encouraging for FG and Labour. However both parties must convert this support into votes at the ballot box. FG will underestimate FF at its peril. Prior to the 07 General Election FG rose sharply in the polls but fell back in the final week of the campaign.

• Fine Gael 33% (+5%)
• Fianna Fail 26% (-10%)
• Labour 15% (+6%)
• Greens 6% (-1%)
• Sinn Fein 10% (+1%)
• PDs 2%(-1%)
• Independents/Others 8% (+0%)

Just 23% of those polled said they were confident the Government could manage the public finances out of the recession, down 19% since last month, while 59% said they were not confident and 21% said they did not know.

Sunday Business Post/RedC Poll (for June) : FF and FG down 2% on General Election of 2007

• FF 40% (No change)


• FG 25% (-3%)


• Labour 10% (No change)


• Sinn Fein 10% (+1%)


• Greens 7% (+2%)


• PDs 2% (No Change)


• Independents 6% (No change)

Changes since the last poll are in brackets.

Both FF and FG are down 2% on their General Election results. FF has lost a referendum so 40% is quite a good result for it. Successful spinning by the FF Party leader Brian Cowen where he alleged unfairly that FG had not worked hard enough in the campaign has partially insulated FF. In addition Cowen is still in a honeymoon period.

FG has taken a hammering in the media especially in the Irish Times. In addition on last Monday nights Questions and Answers programme FF supporter Noel Whelan launched an unfair verbal assault on FG MEP Maighread McGuinness in relation to the referendum on the Lisbon Treaty. This had an impact on public opinion. Also FF had two speakers on Questions and Answers.
In addition stupid comments from FG MEP Gay Mitchell on TV served to deflect blame onto FG and away from FF for the referendum defeat. Mitchell needs to think before he speaks. He ended up doing FF’s dirty work for it. Many FF front benchers kept a low profile on the referendum issue.
FG leader Enda Kenny has suffered from a prolonged media assault.

Sinn Fein has benefited from its role in the No campaign and is up 3% on the General Election.

The Greens are up 2% on their General Election result benefiting form support for the Lisbon Treaty and from Patricia McKenna’s opposition.

The PDs at 2% are down almost 1% on their General Election result.

Independents at 6% remain unchanged since last Sunday Business Post poll.

Answers to opinion polls appear increasingly influenced by spin. It will be interesting to analyse the impact of the developing recession on Party fortunes. Unemployment has risen over the 200,000 mark last month whilst a huge deficit is opening up in the exchequer finances. Will the resulting pain for the electorate swamp spin from the Government spin machine?
The poll also confirms that the No voters in the referendum were strongly influenced by the abortion and neutrality issues. Also fear of the loss of influence and threats to Irelands taxation regime were major reasons for the No vote.

The latest Sunday Business Post/Red C opinion poll shows major parties support on a par with 2007 General Election Result

• STATE OF THE PARTIES (Since the last poll)

• Fianna Fáil 40% (+2)
• Fine Gael 28% (-1)
• Labour 10% (no change)
• Greens 5% (-3)
• Sinn Féin 9% (+2)
• PDs 2% (no change)


• Inds 6% (no change)

This poll confirms that FF has recovered support since the accession of Brian Cowen as leader. It is now just 1.6% short of its 07 General Election result.
This is statistically insignificant and within the margin of error. Similarly FG at 28% is 0.7% above the 07-election result. This is again within the margin of error. Labour at 10% has the same level of support as that obtained in the 07 election. The Green Party is just 0.3% above its 07-election result

Essentially the four parties now hold the same level of support as at the 07 General Election.
Sinn Fein bucks the trend and is 2% above its 07 General Election result. This may be a temporary bounce fuelled by the oxygen of publicity afforded by the parties leading role in the referendum campaign.

The PDs at 2% are 0.7% below their vote in 07 General Election. The party is becalmed.
The Irish electorate is essentially conservative. Will the developing economic downturn alter this mentality?

Bertie Ahern resignation a political bombshell which rocks Irish political scene

The decision of Bertie Ahern to resign as Taoiseach and as leader of FF has certainly caught political observers by surprise. Ahern's decision is typical of the man. He has always jelled with the electorate and was certainly a man of the people in the sense that the general public always found him approachable. Nevertheless he is somewhat of an enigma. It can truthfully be said that not even front bench members could decipher his intentions on certain issues. He was closest to his Drumcondra friends.

His travails at the Mahon Tribunal and the evidence of Grainne Carruth effectively sealed his fate. Increasingly government ministers were preoccupied fending off questions on Mr Ahern’s evidence. It is obvious that the pressure had begun to take its toll on him, as he appeared to have aged immeasurably in recent months.
Undoubtedly a failure to resign could have impacted seriously on the referendum on the Lisbon Treaty.
The verdict of the Mahon Tribunal will play a major role in determining his place in Irish political history.

Clearly his Governments have failed to resolve the health crisis. In addition prior to the 2002 and 2007 General Elections public expenditure escalated out of control. This undoubtedly contributed to the feel good factor which ensured electoral success. In addition in parts of Dublin and Limerick there are major problems with crime gangs. Nevertheless he has had some noticeable achievements to his credit. To this observer the six outlined below are his greatest:

• He championed social partnership.


• He united the warring Reynolds and Haughey factions on assuming leadership of FF.


• He led FF to three successive General Election victories.


• He played a major role in the Good Friday Agreement.


• He was partly responsible for the development of the Celtic Tiger. The Rainbow Government's decision to introduce a 12.5% Corporation Tax rate also contributed enormously.


• He successfully assembled coalition governments with the Greens and PDs

Clearly he has done FF some service.

Ireland-Red C poll for March shows FF down 6.6% on the last General Election

This Red C poll taken for the Sunday Business Post shows relatively minor changes since the last poll taken in February. The changes are within the statistical margin of error.

% Support for each Party:

FF 35 (-2 )

FG 30 ( -1 )

LAB 11 (+1)

SF 9 (+1)

GN 8 (+1)

PD 1 (-1)

OTH 7 (+1)

However FF is down 6.6% on its 2007 General Election showing. There are several causative factors. Bad publicity emanating from the Mahon Tribunal has damaged Bertie Ahern and FF. However major difficulties in the health service, rising unemployment and high inflation have sapped FFs popularity. Much of this loss in support is probably temporary and will undoubtedly return in any General Election situation.


FG is up 2.7% on its General Election showing. However it needs to consolidate this gain and attempt to push its support towards the 35% mark. It must attempt to wrest more conservative support from FF.

Labour support is up 1.9% on its General Election showing. However it faces stiff opposition from Sinn Fein for left wing votes.

Sinn Fein is up 2.1% on its General Election showing. It is probably a temporary abode for some unhappy FF voters.

Similarly the Green Party is up 3.3% on its General Election outcome. It is probably a temporary resting place for disaffected FF voters.

The PDs are down from 2.7% in the General Election to 1%. They appear to have no future. Sensible PD public representatives will now join FG or FF.

Others at 7% are up 1%. This group includes Independents and the Socialist Party. Votes cast for Others represented 6.9% of the total votes cast in the 2007 General Election.

Harney and Gormley seek a statement of clarification from Bertie Ahern on Mahon Tribunal evidence - no threat to the Government

Today PD Senator- and candidate for the party leadership- Fiona O’Malley called on Bertie Ahern to clarify his sworn testimony to the Mahon Tribunal. Her comments must be seen against the background of the PD leadership race. It is generally believed that Cllr Ciaran Cannon is ahead in the race. This was a nice stroke by O’Malley to garner soft publicity. In making the statement she had nothing to lose.

Later Mary Harney was asked by journalists to clarify her position on the issue. In a carefully crafted answer she agreed with O’Malley’s statement but referred to her good working relationship with Bertie Ahern. She was especially careful not to dump too heavily on the Taoiseach. She said she had confidence in all members of the cabinet. The PDs have signed on for the duration of this Government. They have no intention of withdrawing from the government. They are window dressing. This should not be too surprising as they come from the FF gene pool and have never supported any other major party in Government. A PD apologist speaking to Damian O’Reilly on RTE today waxed lyrical about Harney’s courage. A formula of words is not courage. Withdrawal from Government would indicate serious disquiet.

Green Party leader John Gormley has said Taoiseach Bertie Ahern should make a clarifying statement following the latest evidence at the Mahon Tribunal. Mr Gormley said such a statement would be in the best interest of the Taoiseach and the country at large and could be made at the Tribunal. Mr Ahern is not due to appear at the Tribunal for two months. Both Harney and Gormley were especially careful in their choice of words. Since the formation of this Government they have consistently stated that it is the tribunal's function to make judgements. Today’s comments from Gormley and Harney mark a change in emphasis designed to buy time and mollify party supporters. They mean little else. The PDs and Greens have no intention of withdrawing from Government.

Aspiring FF leadership candidate Dermot Ahern said that FF would look after its own business. That comment is open to several interpretations. Undoubtedly pressure on Bertie Ahern has begun to increase from within FF with several councillors expressing concern. The Taoiseach is due to address the Joint Houses of the US Congress on April 30th so a leadership heave appears unlikely within the next two months. One thing is certain. This Government will remain in power for the next four years. The PDs and the Greens have the political clout of a butterfly.

Red C poll shows little change in party strength.

A new opinion poll shows that half of those surveyed no longer trust Taoiseach Bertie Ahern to run the country after hearing his evidence to the Mahon Tribunal.
Those saying they will vote in favour of the Lisbon Treaty outnumber opponents by two to one, with 46% saying the will vote yes, 23% saying they will vote no and 31% undecided.


According to the Red C for the Sunday Business Post the state of the political parties has changed little since the last poll a month ago.
· Fianna Fáil 37% (+1%)
· Fine Gael 31% (-1%)
· Labour is at 10%
· Green Party 7%
· Sinn Féin 8% (-1%)
· PDs 2%.
· Independents and others 6% (+2%)


Looking at the 2007 General Election FF is down 4.6% whilst FG is up 3.7%. Labour is unchanged. The Greens are up 2.3%. Sinn Fein is up 1% and PDs are down 0.7%.

Statistically these changes in political party support-since the last poll- are insignificant and within the margin of error. FF appears to have halted the slide. FF politicians and media supporters have fought a strong rear guard action and have emphasized the necessity to tackle the current economic problems. This resonates with the electorate, which is Tribunal weary. In addition the increase in Green Party support is probably temporary. It is in all probability soft FF support which will return to the party in the course of any General Election campaign.

Some FG politicians have placed too great an emphasis on the Mahon Tribunal. FG has introduced a Private Members' motion on broadband in the Dail. The significance of Simon Coveney’s proposals was drowned out in a flood of political recriminations on Mahon. How many voters realise that FG has produced such a comprehensive policy? Similarly the import of the FG Private Members Motion on Autistic Children was soon obscured. An over emphasis on Mahon will not put bread and butter on the table. Voters have other priorities. Also if FG is to progress further Enda Kenny must place a greater emphasis on the economy with concise sharp questioning. In addition the opposition erred in pressurising Brian Cowen on Ahern’s travails. Why should the opposition attempt to bring the FF leadership issue to the boil. This only favours FF. Sensible oppositions allow governments to stew.

The Labour Party is hamstrung by the level of Sinn Fein support in working class areas of Dublin. Labour must attempt to take on Sinn Fein.

Ireland-Green Party wobble??

According to Newstalk Green Party Senator Dan Boyle has said that he would prefer if the Taoiseach's legal challenge to the Mahon Tribunal didn't happen.
Speaking to Lunchtime with Eamon Keane on Newstalk Senator Boyle added that his opinion would be the general feeling among his party.
He was also indicated that it might be time for Bertie Ahern to set a date for when he plans to leave office.

This indicates unease within the Green Party. The comments of Boyle may be significant as he was one of the negotiators of the Programme for Government. He also comes from an FF background. However it is possible to read too much into these utterances.
There is a subtle distancing of the Greens from Bertie Ahern's difficulties at the Mahon Tribunal. This tried and trusted formula served the PDs well on many occasions. Huff and puff but do little else.

It is highly significant that no Green Party TD or Minister has expressed such opinions. Bertie Ahern has very little to fear. The Greens have no intention of walking. John Gormley berated the opposition. He claimed that it was inconsistent.

Last May Green Party leader Trevor Sargent described the Taoiseach Bertie Ahern as a political "dead man walking." He stated that no party would be willing to serve in a coalition government led by him.
Is the Green Party consistent?

Ireland-The PDs a rudderless party in search of a leader

At a meeting of PDs General Council in Dublin today, it was agreed to amend party rules so as to enable senators, county councillors and other party members contest the leadership. Up until now only TDs could stand.

The party entered the 2007 General Election with 8 TDs and returned with two. Immediately Michael McDowell resigned. Defeated TDs Liz O’Donnell and Tom Parlon have moved on to pastures new.
Since the resignation of Michael McDowell the party has lurched from crisis to crisis. It has been unable to select a new leader as neither of its two TDs -Mary Harney and Noel Grealish- is interested in the post.

In an act of political desperation it prevailed upon Mary Harney to function as acting leader. Mary Harney has indicated that she has no intention of contesting the next General Election. Noel Grealish TD comes from the FF gene pool and has been quite supportive of Bertie Ahern at the Mahon Tribunal.
He has had secret negotiations with FF with a view to jumping ship. He is essentially a conditional PD.


The PD party grew out of the split in FF in 1985. This essentially resulted from personality differences between Desmond O'Malley and Charles Haughey. There were also major differences on Northern Ireland. At the root of these differences were the convulsions, which engulfed the FF Party in the wake of the arms crisis. Haughey never forgave the Lynch wing of the party. The PDs consisted of anti Haugheyites, a ragbag of independents, some disillusioned FGaelers, carpetbaggers and extreme right wingers. Many of its founders-as FF members -supported the disastrous FF Manifesto of 1977 which was a major cause of Ireland economic difficulties in the 1980s. Chief among these were Desmond O’Malley Martin O’Donoghue and Bobby Molloy. They were political opportunists who saw a gap in the market. They targeted the right wing of the FG Party. They have long been a parasitic party.


The party espoused low taxation and liberal policies. Their liberalism on social issues was phoney. The overwhelming majority of party supporters were conservative on social policy.
Income tax rates were reduced through shifting the burden to indirect taxation. Taxation as a percentage of GNP is rising in Ireland. From 2002 to 2005 the burden of personal taxation has risen. The FF/PD Governments have relied heavily upon stealth taxes and indirect taxation to plug gaps in public expenditure. The PD input in the last FF/PD Government was negligible. The PDs were masters of the political three-card trick. They have consistently formed coalition governments with FF. Prior to the 2002 General Election they strongly supported Charlie McCreevy’s huge public expenditure splurge. Similarly in 2007 they supported a 13% rise in public expenditure in the run in to the General Election. So much for fiscal rectitude. Haughey and O'Malley have departed the political stage. There are no major ideological differences between FF and the PDs. The PDs no longer have a raison d'etre. This Coalition Government is an FF/Green Party government. There were no meaningful negotiations between the PDs and FF in the wake of the 2007 General Election. The PDs just make up the numbers.


Senator Ciaran Cannon comes from the FF gene pool. He lacks the political gravitas to lead a political party.-especially a party which no longer has any core beliefs. He will use the leadership campaign as a vehicle to increase his public profile and thereby increase his prospects of winning a seat in East Galway.
From 2002-2007 Fiona O’Malley has consistently taken up policy positions at variance with government policy. She has often adopted a semi-independent role. Much of her thinking is muddled.
Today General Secretary John Higgins announced his resignation. This is apposite
The PDs stand on the edge of the political precipice. It is time to wind up the party.

Ireland-Red C/Sunday Business Post poll shows FF down 6% on its General Election result

The Last Red C/Sunday Business Post poll took place in November 2007. Such polls are taken monthly-with the exception of December. This is the first poll in the series for 2008. Its results are quite similar to those of the Irish Times/ TNS mrbi poll published earlier this week.


It is a more fruitful exercise to compare Red C poll results with the ’07 General Election outcome.

According to Red C, FF support has increased by four points -since the last poll at the end of November -to 36%. Nevertheless the party is down 6% on its General Election result.


Fine Gael is up by one point to 32% on November. It is up 5% on its General Election result.

However the Labour Party is down three points on the November poll to 10%. Labour also secured 10% of the vote in ‘07 General Election.


The Green Party is down two points to 7%- but up 2% on its General Election result.

Sinn Féin stands at 9% -2% higher than its General Election result.


The PDs are unchanged at 2% but down 0.7% on the General Election result


Independents and others drop two points to 4%-down 2.6% on the General Election.

Asked if they believed Bertie Ahern's evidence to the Mahon Tribunal, a clear majority, 54% said they did not, an increase of 12% since last September.

This is a poor poll result for FF as the party secured 42% in the General Election. Much of the soft FF support has moved to Sinn Fein and the Greens. This will in all probability return in the course of any future General Election campaign. It is unlikely that FF would secure anything less than 39% in a General Election. The poll probably understates the real level of FF support. Some FF supporters for obvious reasons are unwilling to indicate their real voting intentions. In the privacy of the ballot box no such inhibitions exist.

The FG performance is impressive as it is up 5% on the ’07 General Election. The party must endeavour to hold this new support with clear-cut policy positions on a wide variety of issues. Fine Gael has been rejuvenated by the influx of ambitious new TDs. It now has a strong front bench, which is more than a match for its FF counterparts. In some polls prior to the 07 General Election FG secured 31% of the vote but fell back to 27% in the actual election. This is soft support. Nevertheless FG appears to be returning to the support levels, which it obtained, in the early 1980s.

The Labour Party is stagnant. It is under pressure from Sinn Fein on the left. It has serious organizational problems in many constituencies. It must wrest working class support from FF if it is to make progress.

Sinn Fein may take some encouragement from the 2% rise in support from the ’07 Election. In all probability it a temporary abode for unhappy FF supporters who will return to their natural party in the course of the next General Election.

Similarly the Greens would be unwise to read too much into the 2% rise in support since ’07 General Election. The Green Party is a temporary rest home for some unhappy FF supporters. The Greens having already sold out on many of their core principles may face retribution from the electorate – a la the PDs.

The PD performance is abysmal. Looks like the good ship PD is heading for the rocks.

Irish Times poll shows FF down 8% on 2007 General Election

According to the latest Irish Times/ TNS mrbi poll satisfaction with the Government, as a whole, has fallen by 2 points to 35 per cent. The poll was conducted last Monday and Tuesday among a representative sample of 1,000 voters in interviews at 100 sampling points in all constituencies.
The poll shows :
· Fianna Fáil on 34 %
· Fine Gael 31 %.
· Labour 12 %
· Sinn Fein 8 %
· PDs 3 %
· Greens 6 %
· Independents 6 %

The results of the 2007 General Election were as follows:

· Fianna Fáil 41.6%
· Fine Gael 27.3%
· Labour 10.1%
· Sinn Fein 6.9%
· PDs 2.7%
· Greens 4.7%
· Independents 6.6 %

FF is down almost 8% on the 2007 General Election whilst FG has gained almost 4% since the 07 Election.

Labour has gained 2%. Sinn Fein is up 1%. The Greens are up 1.3%. The PDs are becalmed on 3%.

This catastrophic drop in FF support stems from unfavourable publicity for Bertie Ahern at the Mahon Tribunal and the economic downturn which is gaining momentum. The rosy picture painted by FF during the General Election campaign has dissipated. The electorate is not amused. This is a repeat of the scenario which unfolded in the wake of the 2002 General Election. However this poll comes with a health warning. Some FF supporters may have hidden their true intentions and indicated support for other parties. At present it is not considered chic to indicate support for FF. Many of these supporters will return to the FF fold in a General Election situation.

The rise in support for FG is impressive. FG must continue to improve its organisation and develop a clear cut identity. The FG Bill - which gives crime victims rights in law for the first time - is most comprehensive and must not be opposed by the Government.

The Labour Party faces competition from Sinn Fein on its left flank. It must endeavour to siphon off support from FF in working class constituencies.

The PDs are becalmed. Their minuscule organization is crumbling. They are indistinguishable from FF. Noel Grealish TD is a cheer leader for FF whilst Mary Harney will retire at the next General Election.

The Green Party has reneged on most of its core principles. It has become FFs mudguard. In public opinion polls the party is a temporary abode for some unhappy FF supporters.

Similarly some FF supporters will indicate support for Sinn Fein in public opinion polls. In the secrecy of the ballot box they will vote FF.

Tonight on the TV3 Nightly News Vincent Brown programme there was a shallow superficial analysis of the poll. The spin from the panel was that FF performed strongly. This "shamnalysis" bodes ill for the future of the programme.

Journalist Eamonn Delaney spouted nonsense about FFs impressive performance. What planet is he on? A drop in FF support of 8% is impressive??? Is it too much to ask panelists to do a little homework ?

Ireland- A Government of contradictions.

The Government is glued together by the elixir of power. Nevertheless it is a Coalition beset by contradictions.

Noel Grealish PD TD for Galway West launched an attack on the Mahon Tribunal on Morning Ireland this morning. Loyal FF supporters were no doubt highly impressed. Noel continues to foster the illusion that the PDs exist as a meaningful party. Meanwhile he engages in negotiations with FF to smooth the path for an eventual return to FF. Noel comes from the FF gene pool so FF is his natural home.
Mary Harney acting PD leader-who will retire at the next General Election- refused to lend support to Grealish's utterances but then sought to divert attention by introducing red herrings about the opposition. The PDs are no longer a meaningful political party. In most constituencies PDs are as scarce as Eskimos in the Sahara.

The Green party in opposition strongly opposed the redrafted EU Constitution. In Government Green Party Ministers will urge a yes vote in the referendum. Will the rank and file members jettison Green Party policy? The Greens have consistently opposed the use of Shannon Airport by the US military. In Government they have acquiesced in its use.
In opposition they opposed incineration. In Government they have accepted that incineration will be a cornerstone of waste disposal.

In Government the Greens have adopted the same policy as FF on the Tribunals. Namely that there should be no rush to judgement until the Tribunals report. In opposition they condemned FF. John Gormley did state that he had full confidence in the Mahon Tribunal.

Up to seven FF Ministers have come out and lambasted the Tribunal. Yet John Gormley and Mary Harney have expressed confidence in the Mahon Tribunal.
FG intends to introduce a motion of confidence-in the Dail- in the Mahon Tribunal
How will Government Ministers square the circle?

Former PD Cllr Mary Mitchell O'Connor joins the Fine Gael Party

The PDs have long fostered the illusion that they were a distinct party. In reality they were a loose coalition of carpetbaggers, independents,anti Haughey FFers and some discontented FGaelers. They adopted the mantle of tax cutters.

Their main strongholds were Galway, Cork City , Waterford City, Limerick and parts of Dublin south of the Liffey. Throughout most of the country PDs were as scarce as icebergs in the Sahara.Gradually PD support melted away in Waterford Cork and even Limerick-home of PD founder Desmond O'Malley. The PDs resorted to drafting in high profile personlities to stand for the party. This damaged the slight prospects the party had of organic growth in some constituencies. The departure of Charlie Haughey removed another obstacle to future reunification with FF.

It is glaringly obvious that the PD party has been in terminal decline since the 2002 General Election. It got a temporary reprieve in 2002 when FG fought a very uncoordinated campaign. In desperation some FG voters drifted to the PDs to stymie FF efforts to secure an overall majority. After the election much nonsense was spouted by some journalists about a reverse take over of FG by the PDs.

To all intents and purposes Ireland was ruled by an FF government from 2002 to 2007. Both Harney and McDowell brought the party closer to FF. Prior to the 2002 General Election the PDs were part of a government, which cynically ratcheted up expenditure to unsustainable levels. This was the party, which supposedly favoured curbs on public expenditure and low taxation. After the 2002 General Election the FF/PD government introduced Stealth Taxes and failed to index tax bands and allowances. They supported the huge rises in public expenditure again in 2006 and 2007.-prior to the 2007 General Election. The FF/PD Government (2002- 2007) presided over huge waste in public expenditure. PPARs and the electronic voting fiasco are monuments to waste. The PD input was nil. FF had killed the PDs with kindness.

In the 2007 General Election the PDs dropped from 8 seats to 2. Party leader Michael McDowell- having replaced Harney as leader- lost his seat. Once more Mary Harney assumed the leadership in a temporary capacity. The party has been unable to find a credible leader. Ex TDs Liz O’Donnell and Tom Parlon saw the writing on the wall and departed.
Mary Harney will not stand in the next General Election and Noel Grealish has already had contact with FF. The PDs are now rudderless. Thoughtful PD councillors will move swiftly to join FF or FG . This would ensure that many of them would hold their seats in the Local Elections of 2009. The decision of Cllr Mary Mitchell O’Connor (Dun Laoghaire) to join FG was inevitable.

Ireland-FF crashes in Sunday Business Post/Red C poll

FF support has collapsed in the latest Sunday Business Post/Red C poll. It is now down 11% on its general election result and 7% on the last Red C poll.

STATE OF THE PARTIES:

• Fianna Fail 32% (-7)
• Fine Gael 31% (+4)
• Labour 13% (+3)
• Greens 9% (+2)
• Sinn Fein 7% (-1)
• PDs 2% (no change)
• Inds 7% (-1)

There are a number of reasons for the decline in FF support:

• The large pay rises awarded to the Taoiseach and government ministers have ignited public indignation. They have undermined the governments moral authority as it seeks public pay restraint and attempts to control public expenditure.
• The cancer debacle at Portlaoise General Hospital has shocked the general public. The HSE which was set up by the last FF/PD government to streamline the health service has failed abysmally to get to grips with the problems. The general public is now apportioning blame to the FF and PD parties.
• Unemployment has begun to rise. There is an incipient crisis in building and construction with forecasts that new house starts may drop from 90,000+ in 2007 to 50,000-60,000 in 2008. There have been lay offs in the building and manufacturing industries. Job losses at Waterford Crystal are the latest.
• Government finances are deteriorating sharply with a likely deficit of €1.3 billion for 2007.
• The collapse of share prices on the stock market has further fueled a feeling of insecurity.
• House prices are falling. So there is now a fear of negative equity.
• There is a perception that the Government misled the electorate on the state of the economy-prior to the election

It is probable that the rise in Green Party support is temporary. Some disillusioned FF supporters may have moved their support to the Greens. This is likely to return to FF in any General Election.

FG support has risen sharply on the back of a strong performance by the new front bench. James Reilly, Charlie Flanagan, Richard Bruton and Brian Hayes amongst others have performed very strongly. The party must consolidate this support and continue to expand its organization. It must aim to replace FF as the largest party.

Labour has also performed strongly. However Eamon Gilmore realises that much more is required.

The PDs are becalmed. Realistically the party has little future. Sensible PD councillors will melt back into FF or join FG.

The drop in support for Sinn Fein and Independents is within the statistical margin of error.

TNSmrbi Poll-FF support collapses

• Fianna Fáil 33% - 9%
• Fine Gael 31%, + 4%
• Labour 15%+5 %
• Sinn Féin 7% +0%
• PDs 2% -1%
• the Greens 5% +0%
• Independents and others 7%+0%
  On satisfaction ratings, 37% feel the Government is doing a good job, down 15 points on the last comparable poll.

These results mirror feeling on the ground.The Government's attempt to tighten restrictions on some provisional licence holders and the announcement of big pay hikes for the Taoiseach and his ministers smack of a Government beginning to lose touch with reality.

The attempt to clamp down on provisional licence holders -whilst correct in principle-was ill conceived and unjust. If implemented it would have triggered a massive revolt. Many drivers faced the prospect of ignoring the law if they wished to continue in employment. The tentacles of this law would have extended into most households in the country. Young children, the old and the seriously ill would also have been affected through a lack of transport. It is highly unlikely that waiting lists for driving tests will have been removed in eight months. Expect another u-turn in June 2008.

The pay hikes further cemented the feeling that the Government was impervious to public opinion. Its moral authority has been dented. Ministers who have benefited from large pay hikes cannot with any semblance of credibility seek public expenditure cuts.

Luckily for the Government the next General Election will probably take place in 2012. The electorate may vent its spleen in the Euro and Local Elections in 2009. FF fared so poorly in the 2004 Local Elections that it can hardly fare much worse in 2009.

The challenge for FG is to consolidate its support. It must win 30%-32% of the vote in the next General Election if it wishes to smash the FF grip on power. In this poll it is just 2% behind FF. However it is unlikely that FF will drop to 33% in the next General Election. FG must wrest support from both the Greens and FF if it wishes to lead the next Government. Labour must take support from Sinn Fein and the Greens. The support for the Greens has remained at 5% because they are in a honeymoon period. It may soon wither away.The PD support is abysmal. PD county councillors may begin to jump ship and join FF and FG in an effort to save their political careers.