Cowen to be next leader of FF and Taoiseach

With a procession of Ministers and backbenchers proclaiming support for Brian Cowen from early morning, his accession to the top was assured. Only Noel Dempsey had reserved his position. However he has now decided to support Cowen. Ministers such as Micheal Martin, Dermot Ahern and Mary Hannifin have parked their ambitions.
Aged 48 Brian Cowen could conceivably survive as FF leader for ten years or more.
If such a scenario unfolds Ministers such as Micheal Martin will have missed the boat.

Cowen has served in a wide variety of ministries and as such has plenty of experience. He is conservative in outlook. His tenure in the various ministries was not marked by many radical initiatives. He referred to the Health Ministry as Angola and was glad to leave the Department.
Fortunately for him he is departing from the Department of Finance at a time when there has been a serious deterioration in the public finances. The Department of Finance will be a poisoned chalice for the foreseeable future.


Cowen is talented and does not suffer fools gladly. However his command of the finance brief was not quite as comprehensive, as is assumed by his admirers.
He generally adopts a more bellicose approach than Bertie Ahern. He once showed his contempt for the PDs by stating, “When in doubt leave them out”
Enda Kenny and Eamon Gilmore must reshape their strategies if they hope to dent Cowen's prospects in the next General Election. They cannot allow Cowen to browbeat them in Dail exchanges. Cowen will adopt a contemptuous and strident tone in an effort to deflect criticism. Kenny and Gilmore must think quickly on their feet to score direct hits. Opportunities abound for the opposition parties. High inflation,rising unemployment, a ramshackle health service, a serious property crisis and myriad other problems will provide suitable targets for direct hits. Any opposition leader worthy of the name should dent Cowen's confidence.

Harney and Gormley seek a statement of clarification from Bertie Ahern on Mahon Tribunal evidence - no threat to the Government

Today PD Senator- and candidate for the party leadership- Fiona O’Malley called on Bertie Ahern to clarify his sworn testimony to the Mahon Tribunal. Her comments must be seen against the background of the PD leadership race. It is generally believed that Cllr Ciaran Cannon is ahead in the race. This was a nice stroke by O’Malley to garner soft publicity. In making the statement she had nothing to lose.

Later Mary Harney was asked by journalists to clarify her position on the issue. In a carefully crafted answer she agreed with O’Malley’s statement but referred to her good working relationship with Bertie Ahern. She was especially careful not to dump too heavily on the Taoiseach. She said she had confidence in all members of the cabinet. The PDs have signed on for the duration of this Government. They have no intention of withdrawing from the government. They are window dressing. This should not be too surprising as they come from the FF gene pool and have never supported any other major party in Government. A PD apologist speaking to Damian O’Reilly on RTE today waxed lyrical about Harney’s courage. A formula of words is not courage. Withdrawal from Government would indicate serious disquiet.

Green Party leader John Gormley has said Taoiseach Bertie Ahern should make a clarifying statement following the latest evidence at the Mahon Tribunal. Mr Gormley said such a statement would be in the best interest of the Taoiseach and the country at large and could be made at the Tribunal. Mr Ahern is not due to appear at the Tribunal for two months. Both Harney and Gormley were especially careful in their choice of words. Since the formation of this Government they have consistently stated that it is the tribunal's function to make judgements. Today’s comments from Gormley and Harney mark a change in emphasis designed to buy time and mollify party supporters. They mean little else. The PDs and Greens have no intention of withdrawing from Government.

Aspiring FF leadership candidate Dermot Ahern said that FF would look after its own business. That comment is open to several interpretations. Undoubtedly pressure on Bertie Ahern has begun to increase from within FF with several councillors expressing concern. The Taoiseach is due to address the Joint Houses of the US Congress on April 30th so a leadership heave appears unlikely within the next two months. One thing is certain. This Government will remain in power for the next four years. The PDs and the Greens have the political clout of a butterfly.

Ireland-Who will be the next leader of FF?

Today in the Dail Enda Kenny and Eamon Gilmore attacked Bertie Ahern’s evidence to the Mahon Tribunal. Brian Cowen’s defence was interesting to say the least. He concentrated his fire mainly on FG and Enda Kenny. He gave qualified support to Bertie Ahern. He stated that Mr. Ahern had the support of the Dail and the FF party. He also emphasized that Mr Ahern would continue to lead while he holds that confidence. Cowen’s defence left few hostages to fortune.

Ever since Bertie Ahern announced that he intended to stand down as leader, aspiring candidates for the leadership have begun to prepare the ground for the impending contest. Bertie Ahern’s decision to anoint Cowen as his successor has not deterred Micheal Martin, Dermot Ahern and Noel Dempsey. It has fueled some thinly disguised resentment among likely leadership candidates.

The assumption amongst most media commentators and cognoscenti is that Cowen is home and dry. Nevertheless there is many a slip twixt cup and lip.
Cowen was a strong supporter of Albert Reynolds and belonged to the country and western wing of the party. Superficially he has huge support within the party. Nevertheless much of this support is soft and could desert Cowen. Micheal Martin had links with the Haughey wing. To a certain extent the Haughey and country and western wings still exist within FF. Martin will have huge support from Munster TDs and Senators and from many in the Haughey/Ahern wing. He cannot be ruled out.

In addition Dermot Ahern is able and could be a dark horse.

A vigorous leadership contest has the potential to reopen old animosities. If such a scenario were to unfold Brian Lenihan could emerge as a compromise leader.

Ireland-Celtic Tiger Is Constipated

The famous Celtic Tiger appears to be suffering from a dose of constipation brought on by over gorging on public expenditure.
The Government has turned an anticipated surplus of €1.8 billion into a deficit of €800 million.
Stamp Duty, Capital Gains Tax and VAT, the main taxes affected by the property boom collectively, are running €721 million below expectations.
Spending is growing at 17.5% - three times the 5.5% rate of growth of Revenue. Next year Minister Cowen plans to plug the hole by borrowing. Prior to the General Election a succession of FF Ministers including Brian Cowen and Dermot Ahern savaged FG proposals. They managed to convince the electorate that FG proposals were improperly costed. Their analysis of FG policies was fatally flawed.
The folly of over reliance on taxes from the property sector to fund public expenditure is exposed for all to see. The Government was warned by opposition politicians and some economists over recent years to change direction. This it singularly failed to do. It was more important to ratchet up public expenditure to unsustainable levels to win the election.
The Celtic Tiger urgently needs a laxative in the form of prudent financial management and tighter public expenditure. It does not require excessive borrowing.
According to Richard Bruton FG Finance Spokesman "The silky pre-election assurances offered by Minister Cowen proved to be no more than a 'Dance of the Seven Veils' to conceal the reality underneath. We see a boom squandered; high spending without reform; and big increases in bureaucracy, and with poor delivery at the front line.
"Now that the election is over, Minister Cowen has admitted to a massive €5,000 million black hole in the tax projections on which he based his Manifesto commitments. All of the glossy promises will be shelved. The Taoiseach is calling for wage restraint.
"This diagnosis may be correct for the economy, but Minister Cowen won't take his own medicine. The final insult must surely be the cavalier decision by Government Ministers to award themselves a massive pay increase. What sort of leadership is this? Do they take the public for complete fools?
"The Minister is pretending that this year will bring budgetary reform. This too is an illusion. "

Dermot Ahern opens Fianna Fail leadership campaign

The Fianna Fail leadership campaign has begun in earnest. Dermot Ahern -in a side swipe at the Taoiseach Bertie Ahern-stated that Bertie had jumped the gun in nominating Brian Cowen as his successor.



The fact that Dermot Ahern would express his opinions in such a trenchent manner is a clear indication that Bertie's authority is beginning to wane. This is reminiscent of Tony Blair in the UK. It was interesting to watch the smile on Mary Hanafin's face as Dermot made his statement.

It is by no means a foregone conclusion that Brian Cowen would win an FF leadership battle. Micheal Martin backed by a huge block of Munster TDs and Senators could mount a formidable challenge.

It is known that Noel Dempsey fancies his chances. Possibly Mary Hanafin could stand.

If the party splits a compromise candidate such as Brian Lenihan could emerge. Interesting times ahead for FF.