Bertie Ahern resignation a political bombshell which rocks Irish political scene

The decision of Bertie Ahern to resign as Taoiseach and as leader of FF has certainly caught political observers by surprise. Ahern's decision is typical of the man. He has always jelled with the electorate and was certainly a man of the people in the sense that the general public always found him approachable. Nevertheless he is somewhat of an enigma. It can truthfully be said that not even front bench members could decipher his intentions on certain issues. He was closest to his Drumcondra friends.

His travails at the Mahon Tribunal and the evidence of Grainne Carruth effectively sealed his fate. Increasingly government ministers were preoccupied fending off questions on Mr Ahern’s evidence. It is obvious that the pressure had begun to take its toll on him, as he appeared to have aged immeasurably in recent months.
Undoubtedly a failure to resign could have impacted seriously on the referendum on the Lisbon Treaty.
The verdict of the Mahon Tribunal will play a major role in determining his place in Irish political history.

Clearly his Governments have failed to resolve the health crisis. In addition prior to the 2002 and 2007 General Elections public expenditure escalated out of control. This undoubtedly contributed to the feel good factor which ensured electoral success. In addition in parts of Dublin and Limerick there are major problems with crime gangs. Nevertheless he has had some noticeable achievements to his credit. To this observer the six outlined below are his greatest:

• He championed social partnership.


• He united the warring Reynolds and Haughey factions on assuming leadership of FF.


• He led FF to three successive General Election victories.


• He played a major role in the Good Friday Agreement.


• He was partly responsible for the development of the Celtic Tiger. The Rainbow Government's decision to introduce a 12.5% Corporation Tax rate also contributed enormously.


• He successfully assembled coalition governments with the Greens and PDs

Clearly he has done FF some service.

Ireland-Red C poll for March shows FF down 6.6% on the last General Election

This Red C poll taken for the Sunday Business Post shows relatively minor changes since the last poll taken in February. The changes are within the statistical margin of error.

% Support for each Party:

FF 35 (-2 )

FG 30 ( -1 )

LAB 11 (+1)

SF 9 (+1)

GN 8 (+1)

PD 1 (-1)

OTH 7 (+1)

However FF is down 6.6% on its 2007 General Election showing. There are several causative factors. Bad publicity emanating from the Mahon Tribunal has damaged Bertie Ahern and FF. However major difficulties in the health service, rising unemployment and high inflation have sapped FFs popularity. Much of this loss in support is probably temporary and will undoubtedly return in any General Election situation.


FG is up 2.7% on its General Election showing. However it needs to consolidate this gain and attempt to push its support towards the 35% mark. It must attempt to wrest more conservative support from FF.

Labour support is up 1.9% on its General Election showing. However it faces stiff opposition from Sinn Fein for left wing votes.

Sinn Fein is up 2.1% on its General Election showing. It is probably a temporary abode for some unhappy FF voters.

Similarly the Green Party is up 3.3% on its General Election outcome. It is probably a temporary resting place for disaffected FF voters.

The PDs are down from 2.7% in the General Election to 1%. They appear to have no future. Sensible PD public representatives will now join FG or FF.

Others at 7% are up 1%. This group includes Independents and the Socialist Party. Votes cast for Others represented 6.9% of the total votes cast in the 2007 General Election.

Harney and Gormley seek a statement of clarification from Bertie Ahern on Mahon Tribunal evidence - no threat to the Government

Today PD Senator- and candidate for the party leadership- Fiona O’Malley called on Bertie Ahern to clarify his sworn testimony to the Mahon Tribunal. Her comments must be seen against the background of the PD leadership race. It is generally believed that Cllr Ciaran Cannon is ahead in the race. This was a nice stroke by O’Malley to garner soft publicity. In making the statement she had nothing to lose.

Later Mary Harney was asked by journalists to clarify her position on the issue. In a carefully crafted answer she agreed with O’Malley’s statement but referred to her good working relationship with Bertie Ahern. She was especially careful not to dump too heavily on the Taoiseach. She said she had confidence in all members of the cabinet. The PDs have signed on for the duration of this Government. They have no intention of withdrawing from the government. They are window dressing. This should not be too surprising as they come from the FF gene pool and have never supported any other major party in Government. A PD apologist speaking to Damian O’Reilly on RTE today waxed lyrical about Harney’s courage. A formula of words is not courage. Withdrawal from Government would indicate serious disquiet.

Green Party leader John Gormley has said Taoiseach Bertie Ahern should make a clarifying statement following the latest evidence at the Mahon Tribunal. Mr Gormley said such a statement would be in the best interest of the Taoiseach and the country at large and could be made at the Tribunal. Mr Ahern is not due to appear at the Tribunal for two months. Both Harney and Gormley were especially careful in their choice of words. Since the formation of this Government they have consistently stated that it is the tribunal's function to make judgements. Today’s comments from Gormley and Harney mark a change in emphasis designed to buy time and mollify party supporters. They mean little else. The PDs and Greens have no intention of withdrawing from Government.

Aspiring FF leadership candidate Dermot Ahern said that FF would look after its own business. That comment is open to several interpretations. Undoubtedly pressure on Bertie Ahern has begun to increase from within FF with several councillors expressing concern. The Taoiseach is due to address the Joint Houses of the US Congress on April 30th so a leadership heave appears unlikely within the next two months. One thing is certain. This Government will remain in power for the next four years. The PDs and the Greens have the political clout of a butterfly.

Ireland-Green Party wobble??

According to Newstalk Green Party Senator Dan Boyle has said that he would prefer if the Taoiseach's legal challenge to the Mahon Tribunal didn't happen.
Speaking to Lunchtime with Eamon Keane on Newstalk Senator Boyle added that his opinion would be the general feeling among his party.
He was also indicated that it might be time for Bertie Ahern to set a date for when he plans to leave office.

This indicates unease within the Green Party. The comments of Boyle may be significant as he was one of the negotiators of the Programme for Government. He also comes from an FF background. However it is possible to read too much into these utterances.
There is a subtle distancing of the Greens from Bertie Ahern's difficulties at the Mahon Tribunal. This tried and trusted formula served the PDs well on many occasions. Huff and puff but do little else.

It is highly significant that no Green Party TD or Minister has expressed such opinions. Bertie Ahern has very little to fear. The Greens have no intention of walking. John Gormley berated the opposition. He claimed that it was inconsistent.

Last May Green Party leader Trevor Sargent described the Taoiseach Bertie Ahern as a political "dead man walking." He stated that no party would be willing to serve in a coalition government led by him.
Is the Green Party consistent?

Ireland's Green Mouse

Ireland is home to a very special Green Mouse. I speak of course about the political Green Mouse. It hides and hides and hides. Green Mouse is now so coy. It has lost much of its nutritious food. Its diet of co-location terror and ethical foreign policy is no longer available. It now feeds on less nutritious roughage of incineration and tar and chips. Haggard and gaunt it manages a little squeak from time to time. Today the little Green rodent peeped out and squeaked and squeaked. -Just avoiding the FF tom cat.


The sound was barely audible. "Give me a little taste of Mahon. Give me a little taste of Mahon. Not too much, not too much. I love red herrings, red herrings, red herrings. I love hypocrisy, hypocrisy, and hypocrisy".
Green Mouse has now scampered back to its little political hellhole a pale shadow of its former self.

What a sad tale.

Ireland- A Government of contradictions.

The Government is glued together by the elixir of power. Nevertheless it is a Coalition beset by contradictions.

Noel Grealish PD TD for Galway West launched an attack on the Mahon Tribunal on Morning Ireland this morning. Loyal FF supporters were no doubt highly impressed. Noel continues to foster the illusion that the PDs exist as a meaningful party. Meanwhile he engages in negotiations with FF to smooth the path for an eventual return to FF. Noel comes from the FF gene pool so FF is his natural home.
Mary Harney acting PD leader-who will retire at the next General Election- refused to lend support to Grealish's utterances but then sought to divert attention by introducing red herrings about the opposition. The PDs are no longer a meaningful political party. In most constituencies PDs are as scarce as Eskimos in the Sahara.

The Green party in opposition strongly opposed the redrafted EU Constitution. In Government Green Party Ministers will urge a yes vote in the referendum. Will the rank and file members jettison Green Party policy? The Greens have consistently opposed the use of Shannon Airport by the US military. In Government they have acquiesced in its use.
In opposition they opposed incineration. In Government they have accepted that incineration will be a cornerstone of waste disposal.

In Government the Greens have adopted the same policy as FF on the Tribunals. Namely that there should be no rush to judgement until the Tribunals report. In opposition they condemned FF. John Gormley did state that he had full confidence in the Mahon Tribunal.

Up to seven FF Ministers have come out and lambasted the Tribunal. Yet John Gormley and Mary Harney have expressed confidence in the Mahon Tribunal.
FG intends to introduce a motion of confidence-in the Dail- in the Mahon Tribunal
How will Government Ministers square the circle?

Ireland-Mahon Tribunal Sunday Newspaper Coverage

Interesting to note variations in newspaper coverage of Bertie Aherne's appearance at the Mahon Tribunal.
The Sunday Independent as befits a staunch FF paper takes a strong pro Bertie line.
The front page headline is "All-out war:Ahern takes on Tribunal." Willie O 'Dea has an article strongly supporting the Taoiseach under the heading "There isn't a scintilla of evidence to suggest Ahern did any wrong." Brendan O Connor's article is titled "How dare they treat our elected Taoiseach in this outrageous way". Jody Corcoran's article appears under the heading " The rattle of a simple , lonely separated man". The editorial is headed "Ahern cash trail may be troubling but not corrupt" . John Drennan in the article "Murder at the tribunal as Bertie's sums don't add up" hedges his bets. Ronald Quinlan has "Bertie's achievements will count for nought if he goes down as the last FF flawed hero" and is largely sympathetic.
Interesting to see a nonsensical article on FG from John Drennan where he vents his usual anti FG spleen. We can expect more of the same from John.
Gene Kerrigan in his Soapbox adopts a different tone from other Sunday Independent contributors.

The Sunday Tribune is more critical. The front page heading to an article by Mick Clifford is "The Incredibles".The sub heading is "Larkin, Ahern, Wall claim victim status but fail to follow the money". Inside in an article by Mick Clifford the heading is "Bertie, Man of the people vs Bertie, the €1/2 m in cash man" In Kevin Rafter's Inside Politics the caption is "Hit the road Bertie-politics is better off without you". The editorial is headed "Once more the victim, Ahern explains nothing".

The Sunday Times -in a front page article by Stephen O Brien - carries the following heading " Ahern may face a huge bill for costs". Inside there is a two page spread by Stephen O Brien captioned "Just follow the money". Matt Cooper's article has "You try excusing the muddle of Bertie's finances to a foreigner.."

In the Sunday Business Post Pat Leahy has "Tide is turning for Ahern" and concludes with "from now on it' s just a matter of how quickly the tide goes out for him [Bertie]" and Ian Kehoe has "Broadside raises more questions than answers" ." Last Thursday morning , the Taoiseach made a 15-minute statement of robust intent. But the discrepancies it contained may be his undoing". Vincent Browne leads with "Ahern's numbers game just doesn't add up".