Ireland: Reasons why Greens should not leave Government at a NAMA Conference

It is scarcely surprising that-as of now- four Green Party constituency organisations have passed motions calling for a special convention on NAMA, the “bad bank” being set up by the Government to buy toxic loans from lenders.
A convention will be held by the Greens before the legislation goes into the Dáil on September 16th if a similar motion is passed by one more constituency organisation.

The party suffered a shattering reverse in the June local government elections and now holds only three seats nationwide. This was exacerbated by the abysmal performance of Dan Boyle and Deirdre De Burca in the Euro elections. Independent Patricia McKenna-who left the party- secured a higher vote than the official Green candidate Deirdre De Burca in the Dublin Euro Constituency. Party fortunes are at a low ebb.

Some observers suspect that the Green Party may be searching for an exit strategy. Such a conference might offer such a possibility. Superficially this might appear to be an attractive option. However if considered at a deeper level it would be- in all probability -highly unwise for the following reasons:
(1) In general, electorates tend to punish small political parties, which precipitate elections.
(2) The electorate would view such a move with the utmost cynicism. The Greens would be perceived as being more interested in saving their own political skins.
(3) They would be viewed as a party unsuitable for government and incapable of taking unpopular decisions. Greens would be labelled cowards. A vote for a Green TD would be a wasted vote.
(4) An immediate election would cost the party its full complement of seats.
(5) Remaining in Government ensures that the party has 6 TDs and 2 Senators until the 2012 General Election and offers it some prospect of surviving.
If it loses its TDs in an early election it is FINISHED as a political force. No doubt party leader John Gormley is well aware of the hostile reception awaiting Green and FF candidates at the doorsteps in an early election campaign. It is a case of hang together or hang separately. Would turkeys vote for Christmas? The Greens are now trapped in government by the need for self preservation.

Ireland- Euro Elections: Can Burke,Crowley and Sinnott hold Munster seats?

The Euro election campaign in Munster is now in full swing. FG candidates - outgoing MEP Colm Burke and Sean Kelly former president of the GAA have put together two strong campaign teams. Colm Burke has been subjected to some unfair criticism in relation to his profile. It is well to remember that he has been MEP for only two years. He is articulate and hard working. He has been active on the issue of EU aid for Dell workers and secured concessions which benefited the Hasbro toy factory in Waterford. Colm Burke has been vocal on agriculture and fishing issues also.
Both Colm Burke and Independent MEP Kathy Sinnott were interviewed on Waterford Local Radio today. The two candidates were impressive. Colm Burke came across as quite a strong candidate.

Sean Kelly has a very high profile based on his time as president of the GAA where he was instrumental in the opening up of Croke Park to rugby and soccer internationals. He is generally regarded as one of the best presidents of the GAA. He has strong positions on major issues such as agriculture, health, unemployment and fishing. 500 people attended the launch of his impressive website. He should poll very well.

Independent Kathy Sinnott has been quite active since her election as an MEP. She is strong on such issues as health, disability and life. She has a high profile.

FF has two candidates running. Sitting MEP Brian Crowley has been an MEP for 15 years. He should hold his seat. He is joined by Ned O'Keeffe. It is rumoured that Brian Crowley is interested in the presidency of Ireland. If Crowley were elected president Ned O'Keeffe could take his seat as first substitute. Ned O'Keeffe is no sacrificial lamb and sparks may fly.

Alan Kelly from Tipperary is the Labour Party candidate. Over the last year he has been active on radio and television and has been gradually building a profile. He will hope to take the third seat.

Toireasa Ferris from Kerry is the Sinn Fein candidate. She will hold the republican vote but lacks sufficient profile to win a seat. She will also be damaged by the fact that there is another female candidate in the race and by the fact that the Labour Party is resurgent.

The Green Party candidate is Senator Dan Boyle . He is unlikely to win a seat.

It is too early to call the outcome as campaigns are in their initial stages. FF will win one seat, FG will win one. The third seat could be a dogfight between the second FG candidate, Kathy Sinnott and Alan Kelly.

Ireland-Green Party wobble??

According to Newstalk Green Party Senator Dan Boyle has said that he would prefer if the Taoiseach's legal challenge to the Mahon Tribunal didn't happen.
Speaking to Lunchtime with Eamon Keane on Newstalk Senator Boyle added that his opinion would be the general feeling among his party.
He was also indicated that it might be time for Bertie Ahern to set a date for when he plans to leave office.

This indicates unease within the Green Party. The comments of Boyle may be significant as he was one of the negotiators of the Programme for Government. He also comes from an FF background. However it is possible to read too much into these utterances.
There is a subtle distancing of the Greens from Bertie Ahern's difficulties at the Mahon Tribunal. This tried and trusted formula served the PDs well on many occasions. Huff and puff but do little else.

It is highly significant that no Green Party TD or Minister has expressed such opinions. Bertie Ahern has very little to fear. The Greens have no intention of walking. John Gormley berated the opposition. He claimed that it was inconsistent.

Last May Green Party leader Trevor Sargent described the Taoiseach Bertie Ahern as a political "dead man walking." He stated that no party would be willing to serve in a coalition government led by him.
Is the Green Party consistent?