Ireland: Reasons why Greens should not leave Government at a NAMA Conference

It is scarcely surprising that-as of now- four Green Party constituency organisations have passed motions calling for a special convention on NAMA, the “bad bank” being set up by the Government to buy toxic loans from lenders.
A convention will be held by the Greens before the legislation goes into the Dáil on September 16th if a similar motion is passed by one more constituency organisation.

The party suffered a shattering reverse in the June local government elections and now holds only three seats nationwide. This was exacerbated by the abysmal performance of Dan Boyle and Deirdre De Burca in the Euro elections. Independent Patricia McKenna-who left the party- secured a higher vote than the official Green candidate Deirdre De Burca in the Dublin Euro Constituency. Party fortunes are at a low ebb.

Some observers suspect that the Green Party may be searching for an exit strategy. Such a conference might offer such a possibility. Superficially this might appear to be an attractive option. However if considered at a deeper level it would be- in all probability -highly unwise for the following reasons:
(1) In general, electorates tend to punish small political parties, which precipitate elections.
(2) The electorate would view such a move with the utmost cynicism. The Greens would be perceived as being more interested in saving their own political skins.
(3) They would be viewed as a party unsuitable for government and incapable of taking unpopular decisions. Greens would be labelled cowards. A vote for a Green TD would be a wasted vote.
(4) An immediate election would cost the party its full complement of seats.
(5) Remaining in Government ensures that the party has 6 TDs and 2 Senators until the 2012 General Election and offers it some prospect of surviving.
If it loses its TDs in an early election it is FINISHED as a political force. No doubt party leader John Gormley is well aware of the hostile reception awaiting Green and FF candidates at the doorsteps in an early election campaign. It is a case of hang together or hang separately. Would turkeys vote for Christmas? The Greens are now trapped in government by the need for self preservation.

Democrats Dilemma as Obama moves closer to nomination

The outcomes of the North Carolina and Indiana primaries have further weakened Clinton's prospects of securing the Democratic party nomination.

The Party is now on the horns of a dilemma. Obama is winning in terms of the popular vote and delegate count. As North Carolina is a larger state than Indiana, Obama has moved further ahead in the delegate count and popular vote.

However there is increasing antipathy towards him amongst a large section of the white Democratic electorate throughout the US, which has plumped increasingly for Clinton. The Rev Jeremiah Wright issue has severely damaged Obama.

The 30% African American electorate in North Carolina has to some extent blunted Clinton's success and handed the state to Obama.
Obama’s victory in North Carolina is a major blow to Clinton who had hoped to secure knock out successes in both states. Such an outcome would have rocked the super delegates and possibly stampeded them into the Clinton camp.

Obama’s success does not alter the fact that if he secures the Democratic nomination-as is highly probable- he is likely to lose a sizeable section of Reagan Democrats to John McCain.
It is probable that Clinton as Democratic candidate would hold a higher proportion of the conservative Democrat vote. She will target super delegates with this message in a final effort to detach them from Obama. It is important to remember that Clinton has adopted an increasingly conservative posture to win white working class votes. This has camouflaged her liberal policies. It is a political stunt, which has worked well for her.

She will also endeavour to secure voting rights for the Michigan and Florida delegates. Will the Democratic nominee be chosen by only 48 of the 50 states?
A resolution of this issue could help Clinton.

If the super delegates were to move towards Clinton and deprive Obama of the nomination the Democratic Party would be torn asunder as African Americans walked out at the Convention. This is unlikely to happen.

Delegates are damned if they do and damned if they don’t. This is music to the ears of John McCain who needs every break that he can get.


Today McCain reassured conservative voters on the issue of the appointment of conservative judges. This is an astute move, which will appeal to Reagan Democrats and will help consolidate GOP support.

Clinton prepares for Democratic Convention Bloodbath as huge split looms-The Lady is not for turning

In an interview with Greta Van Susteren tonight -on Fox News- Clinton was strong on aspirations but weak on solutions. She had something for every one in the audience. She used all the usual soothing sound bytes designed to woo the electorate. She talked about a strong middle class and then outlined a wish list, which if brought to fruition would cripple the middle class -by higher taxation. When challenged to outline her policy on job creation she hinted at curtailing free trade. Protectionism is a recipe for American stagnation. She failed dismally to outline a clear strategy on wealth creation. In short she has no credible economic policies. A Clinton Presidency will usher in a period of rocketing taxation.

Once more she refused to admit that she told untruths in relation to her trip to Bosnia. As far as she was concerned it was an honest mistake. Unfortunately for Clinton the TV footage tells another story.

In relation to the nomination she outlined her determination to take the fight to the convention floor. She stated that there was ten more states -with millions of votes- to be counted. She consistently emphasised the right of Michigan and Florida voters. She declared that the Florida/Michigan votes would be counted one way or another at the convention. In other words there will be a fire fight on the convention floor if necessary. She consistently blamed Obama for the impasse. Clinton is prepared to fracture the Democratic Party if necessary to get the nomination. The lady is not for turning. The Democratic Party is on the precipice of self-destruction propelled by a ruthless ambitious woman. This is music to the ears of the GOP.

Clinton fights for her political life.

Hillary Clinton is now fighting for her political life. Since Super Tuesday the Obama campaign has continued to build momentum. Barack Obama easily defeated Clinton in the Wisconsin primary last night. He also won the Hawaii caucus decisively. In recent days Clinton has increasingly used negative campaigning. Referring to Obama she has said. "It's time that we move from good words to good works, from sound bites to sound solutions.

Mr Obama has defeated Clinton in ten successive contests since Super Tuesday two weeks ago. Most disconcerting for Clinton is the fact that many blue collar voters, females and the elderly -for long the mainstay of her campaign- have begun to drift towards Obama. The problem for Clinton is that Obama’s support is now well balanced amongst whites, blue-collar workers and the elderly as well as the youth. Obama is no longer over reliant on African Americans.

It is estimated that Obama has the support 1,335 delegates to Clinton’s 1,251.
Sen. Barack Obama has opened up a 14% lead over Hillary Clinton in a national presidential preference telephone survey conducted by Zogby International for Reuters.

The Ohio and Texas primaries will be held on 4 March, together with the smaller states of Vermont and Rhode Island.
Clinton will expect strong Hispanic support in Texas. She was a strong favourite to win Texas . However a CNN poll has shown both candidates are now neck and neck. Even in Texas support for Clinton appears to be ebbing away.
The war of words between both candidates can be expected to intensify. An increasingly desperate and shrill Clinton may drive more voters into the Obama camp. Can the legendary Clinton machine snatch victory from the jaws of defeat?

If Clinton loses Ohio and Texas she is effectively finished as a serious prospect for the nomination. If she wins one, the fight will in all probability go to the convention floor. Hillary and Bill will then endeavour to sway the super delegates by emphasizing that she is the more experienced candidate. If this transpires the ensuing bloodletting could tear the Democratic Party asunder. The issue of the Florida and Michigan delegates has yet to be resolved. Is it likely that only 48 states will choose the Democratic nominee? Clinton will fight furiously to ensure that delegates from Florida and Michigan can vote.
These delegates-if allowed to vote at convention- could exercise a major influence on the outcome.

A Super Tuesday for McCain and Huckabee, a Black Tuesday for Romney

Super Tuesday has copper fastened John McCain’s position as the strong favourite to secure the GOP nomination. He has c700 delegates. He needs 1,191 to win the nomination at the convention in St. Paul, Minn. He won the most states and scored impressive victories in the delegate-rich states of California, New York and Illinois. In general McCain did best amongst Republican moderates. Voters who said they were most concerned about the economy, the Iraq war or terrorism tended to favour McCain.

Whilst a week is a long time in politics it would take a major political faux pas to deprive him of the nomination. McCain has risen phoenix like from the ashes of political irrelevancy. Six months ago his campaign- bereft of finance-was on the verge of collapse. Campaign staff was laid off. Political analysts considered McCain a busted flush. His victory in New Hampshire was the catalyst, which ignited his fight back. Independents and moderate Republicans provided the necessary support to buttress his campaign. This was particularly significant in New Hampshire and Florida. Victory in Florida ensured that he was now the front-runner on Super Tuesday.


He still faces major difficulties. Campaign finance is scarce. However victory on Super Tuesday should alleviate the problem. Donors like winners.He faces problems from the extreme right wing of the Republican Party. Rush Limbaugh and Anne Coulter have been particularly critical. Some extreme right wing elements are likely to abstain. Anne Coulter has stated that she would vote for Hillary Clinton in preference to John McCain. She argues that Clinton is more conservative than McCain. Of course this is utter nonsense. McCain is a moderate conservative whilst Clinton is a Socialist. McCain favours a balanced budget. He strongly opposes abortion and he is strong on national security -all good conservative issues. There is increasing evidence that most conservatives within the GOP are preparing to rally to the McCain cause.The extreme right is blinded by a rigid ideology. Many are further to the right than Barry Goldwater.McCain must endeavour to compensate for the loss of some elements on the right by appealing to the centre and to conservative Democrats.

Super Tuesday has been an unmitigated disaster for Mitt Romney. Romney has 260 delegates. This is a very poor return on the massive financial outlay. He secured most support from more right wing conservatives and from those strongly opposed to illegal immigration. Romney told his supporters in Boston that the Republican race would continue. "One thing that's clear is, this campaign's going on!" he said to cheers. Of course Romney can continue to the convention in the forlorn hope that he may yet secure the nomination. He has a personal fortune of $250 million. Romney in the interests of the GOP should withdraw and accept the inevitable.

Mike Huckabee whose campaign has been hamstrung by a chronic lack of funding scored stunning victories in Alabama, Arkansas, Tennessee, West Virginia, and Georgia, the biggest Southern state to vote Tuesday. The charismatic Huckabee would make a strong vice presidential candidate. He could face competition from Newt Gingrich for the vice presidential slot. So far he has 190 delegates to the convention.