Democrats Dilemma as Obama moves closer to nomination

The outcomes of the North Carolina and Indiana primaries have further weakened Clinton's prospects of securing the Democratic party nomination.

The Party is now on the horns of a dilemma. Obama is winning in terms of the popular vote and delegate count. As North Carolina is a larger state than Indiana, Obama has moved further ahead in the delegate count and popular vote.

However there is increasing antipathy towards him amongst a large section of the white Democratic electorate throughout the US, which has plumped increasingly for Clinton. The Rev Jeremiah Wright issue has severely damaged Obama.

The 30% African American electorate in North Carolina has to some extent blunted Clinton's success and handed the state to Obama.
Obama’s victory in North Carolina is a major blow to Clinton who had hoped to secure knock out successes in both states. Such an outcome would have rocked the super delegates and possibly stampeded them into the Clinton camp.

Obama’s success does not alter the fact that if he secures the Democratic nomination-as is highly probable- he is likely to lose a sizeable section of Reagan Democrats to John McCain.
It is probable that Clinton as Democratic candidate would hold a higher proportion of the conservative Democrat vote. She will target super delegates with this message in a final effort to detach them from Obama. It is important to remember that Clinton has adopted an increasingly conservative posture to win white working class votes. This has camouflaged her liberal policies. It is a political stunt, which has worked well for her.

She will also endeavour to secure voting rights for the Michigan and Florida delegates. Will the Democratic nominee be chosen by only 48 of the 50 states?
A resolution of this issue could help Clinton.

If the super delegates were to move towards Clinton and deprive Obama of the nomination the Democratic Party would be torn asunder as African Americans walked out at the Convention. This is unlikely to happen.

Delegates are damned if they do and damned if they don’t. This is music to the ears of John McCain who needs every break that he can get.


Today McCain reassured conservative voters on the issue of the appointment of conservative judges. This is an astute move, which will appeal to Reagan Democrats and will help consolidate GOP support.

Pennsylvania Primary: Clinton engages in the politics self delusion-Obama is still odds on favourite for Democratic Party nomination

Whilst Hillary Clinton may have won the Pennsylvania primary by a margin of 10% (55%-45%) and kept her hopes of securing the Democratic Party nomination alive, the outcome only marginally improves her delegate count vis a vis Obama. Barack Obama will fall from a lead of 161 in elected delegates to about 145.

Obama holds a massive financial advantage, with $41 million raised in March and $42 million available to spend against Clinton this month.Clinton raised $20 million in March and had $9 million for the primary available at the beginning of April. However she has debts of $10.3 million, putting her in the red.

There are nine pre-convention contests remaining.It is anticipated that Clinton will win in West Virginia and Kentucky, whilst Obama is expected to take North Carolina, Oregon and South Dakota. Indiana and Montana are at this stage too close to call.
It is important to remember that Independents can vote in the Indiana and North Carolina primaries. The demographics of both are somewhat different from Pennsylvania-both have a younger age profile. Both of these factors may aid Obama.
The Guam caucus is insignificant whilst the Puerto Rico Primary is unlikely to give Clinton a huge delegate bonus. There are some indications of a growth in support for Obama here.

It is highly unlikely that either candidate will have the required 2,025 elected delegates necessary to secure the nomination.
However Obama will lead in terms of the popular vote and the number of elected delegates.
The thorny issue of Michigan and Florida has yet to be resolved.
It is probable that pressure will increase on Clinton to withdraw from the race with the conclusion of the primaries. The super delegates may come under pressure from Al Gore, Nancy Pelosi, Howard Dean and John Edwards to declare support for Obama. This could put Obama over the top.

If the issue is not finalised before the Democratic Convention- in August- the implications for the party are serious. The Clintons will utilize every strategy and stratagem to secure the nomination. If the super delegates were to deprive Obama of the nomination the party would be torn asunder. African Americans would walk. Clinton would lose to John McCain.
Obama is odds on favourite. It will take a political earthquake to deprive him of the nomination.

Clinton prepares for Democratic Convention Bloodbath as huge split looms-The Lady is not for turning

In an interview with Greta Van Susteren tonight -on Fox News- Clinton was strong on aspirations but weak on solutions. She had something for every one in the audience. She used all the usual soothing sound bytes designed to woo the electorate. She talked about a strong middle class and then outlined a wish list, which if brought to fruition would cripple the middle class -by higher taxation. When challenged to outline her policy on job creation she hinted at curtailing free trade. Protectionism is a recipe for American stagnation. She failed dismally to outline a clear strategy on wealth creation. In short she has no credible economic policies. A Clinton Presidency will usher in a period of rocketing taxation.

Once more she refused to admit that she told untruths in relation to her trip to Bosnia. As far as she was concerned it was an honest mistake. Unfortunately for Clinton the TV footage tells another story.

In relation to the nomination she outlined her determination to take the fight to the convention floor. She stated that there was ten more states -with millions of votes- to be counted. She consistently emphasised the right of Michigan and Florida voters. She declared that the Florida/Michigan votes would be counted one way or another at the convention. In other words there will be a fire fight on the convention floor if necessary. She consistently blamed Obama for the impasse. Clinton is prepared to fracture the Democratic Party if necessary to get the nomination. The lady is not for turning. The Democratic Party is on the precipice of self-destruction propelled by a ruthless ambitious woman. This is music to the ears of the GOP.