Wednesday, May 7, 2008

Democrats Dilemma as Obama moves closer to nomination

The outcomes of the North Carolina and Indiana primaries have further weakened Clinton's prospects of securing the Democratic party nomination.

The Party is now on the horns of a dilemma. Obama is winning in terms of the popular vote and delegate count. As North Carolina is a larger state than Indiana, Obama has moved further ahead in the delegate count and popular vote.

However there is increasing antipathy towards him amongst a large section of the white Democratic electorate throughout the US, which has plumped increasingly for Clinton. The Rev Jeremiah Wright issue has severely damaged Obama.

The 30% African American electorate in North Carolina has to some extent blunted Clinton's success and handed the state to Obama.
Obama’s victory in North Carolina is a major blow to Clinton who had hoped to secure knock out successes in both states. Such an outcome would have rocked the super delegates and possibly stampeded them into the Clinton camp.

Obama’s success does not alter the fact that if he secures the Democratic nomination-as is highly probable- he is likely to lose a sizeable section of Reagan Democrats to John McCain.
It is probable that Clinton as Democratic candidate would hold a higher proportion of the conservative Democrat vote. She will target super delegates with this message in a final effort to detach them from Obama. It is important to remember that Clinton has adopted an increasingly conservative posture to win white working class votes. This has camouflaged her liberal policies. It is a political stunt, which has worked well for her.

She will also endeavour to secure voting rights for the Michigan and Florida delegates. Will the Democratic nominee be chosen by only 48 of the 50 states?
A resolution of this issue could help Clinton.

If the super delegates were to move towards Clinton and deprive Obama of the nomination the Democratic Party would be torn asunder as African Americans walked out at the Convention. This is unlikely to happen.

Delegates are damned if they do and damned if they don’t. This is music to the ears of John McCain who needs every break that he can get.

Today McCain reassured conservative voters on the issue of the appointment of conservative judges. This is an astute move, which will appeal to Reagan Democrats and will help consolidate GOP support.

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