Sunday, May 25, 2008

The latest Sunday Business Post/Red C opinion poll shows major parties support on a par with 2007 General Election Result

  • STATE OF THE PARTIES (Since the last poll)
  • Fianna Fáil 40% (+2)
  • Fine Gael 28% (-1)
  • Labour 10% (no change)
  • Greens 5% (-3)
  • Sinn Féin 9% (+2)
  • PDs 2% (no change)

  • Inds 6% (no change)

This poll confirms that FF has recovered support since the accession of Brian Cowen as leader. It is now just 1.6% short of its 07 General Election result.
This is statistically insignificant and within the margin of error. Similarly FG at 28% is 0.7% above the 07-election result. This is again within the margin of error. Labour at 10% has the same level of support as that obtained in the 07 election. The Green Party is just 0.3% above its 07-election result

Essentially the four parties now hold the same level of support as at the 07 General Election.
Sinn Fein bucks the trend and is 2% above its 07 General Election result. This may be a temporary bounce fuelled by the oxygen of publicity afforded by the parties leading role in the referendum campaign.

The PDs at 2% are 0.7% below their vote in 07 General Election. The party is becalmed.
The Irish electorate is essentially conservative. Will the developing economic downturn alter this mentality?

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