Sunday, May 25, 2008

Lisbon Treaty: Sunday Business Post/Red C poll on Referendum indicates an electorate in a state of flux

  • STATE OF THE REFERENDUM (Since last poll)
  • Yes 41% (+3)
  • No 33% (+5)
  • Don’t Know 26% (-8)

The high level of dont knows indicates a large degree of confusion amongst a sizeable segment of the electorate. However this may not be the whole story. Increasingly there is unease within the country with what is perceived as meddling by EU bureaucrats in the internal affairs of Ireland. There is a suspicion that the EU will tamper with the 12.5.% Corporation Profits Tax. There is a fear that abortion will be foisted on the country. The WTO threat to Irish farming is a huge issue. There may be a temptation to make a protest vote. Many of the don’t knows may be unwilling to declare their real intentions of voting no. This would be a nightmare scenario for the Yes campaign.

It might be helpful if pollsters attempted to elicit more information from the don’t knows. The Yes campaign powered by FF, FG and Labour will in all probability succeed in convincing the electorate to accept the Lisbon Treaty. However many voters are highly suspicious. The electorate wants clear-cut answers on the range of issues alluded to above. Failure to address the electorate's concerns could be very costly for the Yes campaign

Luckily for the Yes campaign the Anti campaign has failed to use articulate spokes persons such as Caroline Simons very effectively.

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