Original Video: Wonderous Stories - Yes (1977)

Ireland: Posters of Yes and No campaigns-Lisbon Treaty Referendum

Irish No vote:Unhelpful comments from Mandelson and d’Estaing hinder resolution of difficulties

Today the King of spin EU Farm Commissioner Mandelson made a slashing attack on the Irish Yes campaign. He said in reference to the debate in Ireland “All of those fears should have been addressed all those misrepresentations should have been corrected. Frankly, the untruths that were put out by some of the propagandists should have been rebutted right at the beginning of this campaign. [By the Yes campaign]
If you don't defuse it and demolish it instantly, it gets its skates on and it's around the country and everyone is assuming it's right before the other side get up on their soapbox."

Peter Mandelson should look closer to home. His behaviour at the WTO talks triggered a massive rural backlash and protest vote at the polls. This came not alone from farm families but from small businessmen dependent on farming and food processing workers. Has he forgotten the destruction of the sugar beet industry? He appears well on the way to destroying Irish agriculture. Spin Mr Mandelson does not put bread and butter on the table.
Mandelson could show his bona fides at the WTO talks and desist from lecturing the Irish electorate.

Today former French President Valery Giscard d'Estaing said that Ireland must either hold a second referendum on the EU reform treaty or negotiate a special accord with the European Union in the wake of its No vote last Thursday.
Giscard d'Estaing was the chairman of the Convention that drafted the EU constitution, which collapsed when French and Dutch voters rejected the text in 2005.
He said in an interview to RTL radio. "A country that represents 0.7 percent of the European population...cannot decide for the others." Once more he is dictating to the Irish.
This intervention is unhelpful and displays arrogance typical of an out of touch liberal. This is par for the course with d’Estaing who was critical of “mistakes” made by French and Dutch voters when they rejected the EU Constitution in referenda.

Whether elitists like it or not a large segment of the Irish electorate has major concerns with the Lisbon Treaty. It is time to address them now. Cast iron guarantees from the EU on Corporation Profits Tax, neutrality and abortion-with no loopholes Mr d’Estaing- are essential, allied to a change in policy by Mandelson or his successor at the WTO talks. Otherwise this crisis will persist. It is time to put d’Estaing and Mandelson out to pasture.

Ireland's Voters Have Rejected the Lisbon Treaty-(Reasons why)

Firstly this is a vote against the Lisbon Treaty and not a vote against the EU as such. However it indicates a strong concern at the direction in which the EU is moving. This concern exists amongst voters not alone in Ireland but in countries such as France, Holland, Denmark and Sweden. There is a strong belief that Eurocrats are following their own agenda and are not in tune with the views of the voters. As the EU enlarges it runs the risk of disintegrating under the pressure of its own contradictions.

It is noticeable that Working Class areas voted strongly against the Treaty whilst more Middle Class areas were more in favour. In general rural voters leaned against the Treaty. The combined strength of FF, FG and Labour and the political establishment was unable to secure a Yes vote.

Reasons for Ireland’s No vote:

(1) Voters were not prepared to accept a loss of influence- particularly the loss of a Commissioner.

(2) Fear of the development of a European army- many women feared that their sons could be sent to war.

(3) Interference from Jose Manuel Barroso and threats from French politicians that Ireland would suffer angered voters.

(4) A fear that Europe is becoming increasingly bureaucratic and a pent up anger at high levels of bureaucracy.

(5) Anger in rural areas with Peter Mandelson, EU Trade Commissioner and a fear that the EU is determined to sacrifice farmers at the WTO. Agriculture is under enormous pressure. The destruction of Ireland's sugar beet industry is fresh in the minds of farmers.

(6) Fishing communities are under extreme economic pressure. They have protested strongly in the ballot box.

(7) Working class voters vented their anger at high inflation and increasing unemployment especially in building and construction.

(8) Many voters did not understand the Treaty.

(9) Respected businessmen such as Ulick McEvaddy and Declan Ganley-leader of Libertas- came out against the Treaty. In addition the NO campaign had excellent media performers such as Caroline Simons.

(10) Fear that Ireland’s 12.5% Corporations profits Tax would disappear.
A feeling that the EU Commission is undemocratic and is unprepared to listen to ordinary voters.

(11) Fear that abortion could be legalised.

(12) Some newspapers such as the Sunday Times opposed the Treaty. Shane Ross- business editor of the Sunday Independent- outlined arguments against the Treaty in a very influential article.

(13) Some voters wished to protest against the Government.

(14) The Government campaign was in all probability too slow getting off the ground.

(15) The NO campaign - a loose coalition of Libertas, some businessmen, Sinn Fein, some unions,the Socialist Party tapped into the mood of discontent which has been heightened by bleak economic news. Many voters are fearful for their future economic prospects.

Red C Poll:Yes marginally ahead with the No side gaining

The last Red C/Sunday Business Post opinion poll on the Lisbon Treaty -before the referendum- shows Yes at 42% a gain of 1% and No at 39% a gain of 6% since the last Red C poll.

The poll also found that among those who say they are certain to vote, the Yes side is even further ahead. However the Red C and the Irish Times/TNS polls have now shown large rises in support for the No campaigners. Dont knows stand at 19% down 7%. Of those very likely to vote-50% of total- Yes stands at 46% and No at 37%.

This referendum is wide open and could go either way. The fact that the number of Dont knows stands at 19% less than a week before the referendum indicates major uncertainty amongst a large segment of the electorate.

Irish Times/TNS mrbi poll shows Lisbon Treaty heading for shock defeat

"The Lisbon Treaty is heading towards a shock defeat with the No side now in the lead, according to the findings of the latest Irish Times/TNS mrbi poll.

It will take an unprecedented swing in the last week of the campaign for the Treaty to be carried.
The poll shows the number of people intending to vote No has almost doubled to 35 per cent (up 17 points) since the last poll three weeks ago, while the number of the Yes side has declined to 30 per cent (down 5 points).
The number of undecided voters is still a significant 28 per (down 12 points) cent, while 7 per cent won’t vote.

The massive increase by the No vote since the last poll has mainly come through gains among undecided voters but, even more ominously for the Yes side, it has lost some support to the No camp.

While the final outcome is still in the hands of undecided voters, the clear momentum is now with the No campaign, and it will take a dramatic shift in public attitudes over the next few days for the Yes side to win.

The swing to the No camp has not been prompted by domestic considerations, with just 5 per cent of those opposed to the Treaty saying they are influenced by a desire to protest against the Government.
The reason most often cited by No voters is that they don’t know what they are voting for or they don’t understand the Treaty, with 30 per cent of No voters listing this as the main reason for their decision. ......................................." Read full story at Irish Times

Lisbon Treaty: Sunday Business Post/Red C poll on Referendum indicates an electorate in a state of flux

• STATE OF THE REFERENDUM (Since last poll)

• Yes 41% (+3)
• No 33% (+5)
• Don’t Know 26% (-8)

The high level of dont knows indicates a large degree of confusion amongst a sizeable segment of the electorate. However this may not be the whole story. Increasingly there is unease within the country with what is perceived as meddling by EU bureaucrats in the internal affairs of Ireland. There is a suspicion that the EU will tamper with the 12.5.% Corporation Profits Tax. There is a fear that abortion will be foisted on the country. The WTO threat to Irish farming is a huge issue. There may be a temptation to make a protest vote. Many of the don’t knows may be unwilling to declare their real intentions of voting no. This would be a nightmare scenario for the Yes campaign.

It might be helpful if pollsters attempted to elicit more information from the don’t knows. The Yes campaign powered by FF, FG and Labour will in all probability succeed in convincing the electorate to accept the Lisbon Treaty. However many voters are highly suspicious. The electorate wants clear-cut answers on the range of issues alluded to above. Failure to address the electorate's concerns could be very costly for the Yes campaign

Luckily for the Yes campaign the Anti campaign has failed to use articulate spokes persons such as Caroline Simons very effectively.