Ireland: Posters of Yes and No campaigns-Lisbon Treaty Referendum

Hysterical Reaction to Ireland's rejection of Lisbon Treaty begins to die down

Over the weekend there has been a hysterical reaction amongst some Irish, German and French politicians and media organs to Ireland's No vote in the Lisbon Treaty referendum. However today the reaction of EU Foreign Ministers-in Luxembourg-to Micheal Martin was conciliatory. There was no finger pointing. Finnish Foreign Minister Alexander Stubb and Britain's David Miliband were particularly helpful.

Quite frankly I cannot understand what all the panic is about. The Dutch and French voted No in an EU referendum. Were those countries ostracised? Of course not.

Ireland needs cast iron guarantees on several issues such as Corporation Profits Tax, Neutrality, Social Issues and the loss of a Commissioner. It is essential that the 12.5% Tax rate is safeguarded. Otherwise the country will become an industrial desert. It is pointless being good Europeans if we sell out on these issues.

Watertight guarantees on Neutrality and Social Issues should not be beyond the bounds of diplomatic ingenuity.

The office of Junior Commissioner could be created for countries losing a Commissioner.

Greater understanding from the EU on Ireland difficulties in the fields of agriculture and fishing would generate goodwill in rural communities and help seal the deal.

It is time for solutions.

Red C Poll:Yes marginally ahead with the No side gaining

The last Red C/Sunday Business Post opinion poll on the Lisbon Treaty -before the referendum- shows Yes at 42% a gain of 1% and No at 39% a gain of 6% since the last Red C poll.

The poll also found that among those who say they are certain to vote, the Yes side is even further ahead. However the Red C and the Irish Times/TNS polls have now shown large rises in support for the No campaigners. Dont knows stand at 19% down 7%. Of those very likely to vote-50% of total- Yes stands at 46% and No at 37%.

This referendum is wide open and could go either way. The fact that the number of Dont knows stands at 19% less than a week before the referendum indicates major uncertainty amongst a large segment of the electorate.

Lisbon Treaty: Sunday Business Post/Red C poll on Referendum indicates an electorate in a state of flux

• STATE OF THE REFERENDUM (Since last poll)

• Yes 41% (+3)
• No 33% (+5)
• Don’t Know 26% (-8)

The high level of dont knows indicates a large degree of confusion amongst a sizeable segment of the electorate. However this may not be the whole story. Increasingly there is unease within the country with what is perceived as meddling by EU bureaucrats in the internal affairs of Ireland. There is a suspicion that the EU will tamper with the 12.5.% Corporation Profits Tax. There is a fear that abortion will be foisted on the country. The WTO threat to Irish farming is a huge issue. There may be a temptation to make a protest vote. Many of the don’t knows may be unwilling to declare their real intentions of voting no. This would be a nightmare scenario for the Yes campaign.

It might be helpful if pollsters attempted to elicit more information from the don’t knows. The Yes campaign powered by FF, FG and Labour will in all probability succeed in convincing the electorate to accept the Lisbon Treaty. However many voters are highly suspicious. The electorate wants clear-cut answers on the range of issues alluded to above. Failure to address the electorate's concerns could be very costly for the Yes campaign

Luckily for the Yes campaign the Anti campaign has failed to use articulate spokes persons such as Caroline Simons very effectively.