Red C Poll:Yes marginally ahead with the No side gaining

The last Red C/Sunday Business Post opinion poll on the Lisbon Treaty -before the referendum- shows Yes at 42% a gain of 1% and No at 39% a gain of 6% since the last Red C poll.

The poll also found that among those who say they are certain to vote, the Yes side is even further ahead. However the Red C and the Irish Times/TNS polls have now shown large rises in support for the No campaigners. Dont knows stand at 19% down 7%. Of those very likely to vote-50% of total- Yes stands at 46% and No at 37%.

This referendum is wide open and could go either way. The fact that the number of Dont knows stands at 19% less than a week before the referendum indicates major uncertainty amongst a large segment of the electorate.

Shane Coleman in Sunday Tribune compares FF and FG support in opinion poll

In today's Sunday Tribune-in an otherwise good article- Shane Coleman states: "FF is at 42% in the opinion polls...... Fine Gael has slipped back to a core vote of 20%. Why is Coleman comparing FF's share of the vote -after the redistribution of dont knows- with FGs share of the vote prior to redistribution of dont knows.

After redistribution of dont knows FF is on 42%, FG is on 26%. FG is down just 1% on the 2007 General Election result.

Undecided voters stood at 15% in the Irish Times/MRBI poll of 16th May. This makes interpretation hazardous.