Ireland: Posters of Yes and No campaigns-Lisbon Treaty Referendum

New York Times-Roger Cohen attacks the Irish electorate's rejection of Lisbon Treaty in "The Muck of the Irish"

The following are some excerpts from his article in the New York Times titled The Muck of the Irish (Which I rebut):

"…But when it comes to sheer electoral crassness, it’s hard to beat what the Irish have just done. I can’t think of a country that’s benefited from European Union membership more than Ireland. It has catapulted itself in a few decades from beer-soaked backwater to the Celtic Tiger whose growth rates, foreign investment and rags-to-riches story were the envy of every languishing small nation with a thirst for a makeover.

Enormous E.U. farm subsidies, access for foreign investors to the E.U. market, and the liberation from a Britain complex afforded by new European horizons all contributed to the rebranding of Ireland. Dublin was suddenly hip; the peat bogs were passé. No wonder the Irish adopted the euro with élan while the British shrunk from “the Continent” and stuck with sterling.

Yet here we have the Irish, in a fit of Euro-bashing pique worthy of the worst of little-Englandism, rejecting the renegotiated Lisbon treaty essential for the functioning of an expanded 27-member E.U. Biting the hand that feeds you does not begin to describe this act of bloody-mindedness………………………………"

Comment:

To put it mildly this article is insulting and reeks of condescension and ignorance. It is written from a distance and is littered with half-truths. The use of the term beer-soaked backwater is a cheap shot. There is an element of the Paddy bashing about it often heard in British upper class circles. Sure Ireland has benefited from EU membership. Certainly we have access to the huge EU markets. Sure farmers have benefited from EU subsidies. This was not a vote to leave the EU. It was a vote for an improved version of the Treaty.

Cohen makes no effort to investigate possible causes for the defeat of the referendum. Rural Ireland revolted against the oppressive burden imposed by EU bureaucracy. Un-elected Commissioners have made decisions, which have severely worsened the quality of life in rural communities. Mountains of bureaucracy and quotas hamstring farming and fishing. EU agriculture Commissioner Peter Mandelson is viewed as a second Cromwell who is prepared to sell out EU farmers at the WTO. EU Commission restrictions on turf cutting proved the last straw for many. Rural Post Offices are closing because of EU competition rules in the postal service. Often the postman is the only visitor to the isolated homestead of an elderly person.

Fishermen watch as Irish waters are denuded of fish by EU trawlers. Ireland with 16% of the EU sea area has only 4% of the fish quotas. EU trawlers have taken at a conservative estimate €50 billion-€60 billion worth of fish. Some estimates are as high as €120 billion. Ireland is in all probability a net contributor to the EU.

Many small businessmen dependent on farmers and fishermen voted No.
Other businessmen voted No fearing that the 12.5% Corporation Profits Tax is under threat. And it certainly is.

Working class communities in Waterford, Cork, Limerick, Dublin and other cities came out against the Treaty fearing that paid employment has become a race to the bottom under pressure from EU decisions on workers rights and immigrants.
Others assessed correctly that the EU Commission is undemocratic.
There are fears that the EU courts will legalise abortion in Ireland.

Also there is the fear that an EU army would compromise Ireland’s neutrality. Many female voters feared that their sons could be sent to war.

Stupid comments from some French and German politicians and from Jose Manuel Barroso angered the electorate. So you see Mr Cohen your diatribe failed to detect the reality on the ground. In short you are out of touch.

Ireland- A net contributor to EU?

There has been criticism of Ireland's decision to reject the Lisbon Treaty especially in France and Germany. Much of this is patronising and insulting. It is accompanied by references to Ireland’s alleged ingratitude to the EU. Undoubtedly Ireland has much to be grateful for-especially the access to huge EU markets and financial transfers which aided the development of infrastructure et al.

However there are also transfers from Ireland to the EU.
Ireland, controls 16% of EU waters, yet has only 4% of the EU fish quota. Some Irish fishing sources estimate that EU countries have taken €120 billion worth of fish since Irish membership in 1973. A conservative estimate is €50 billion to €60 billion. Many species of fish such as cod are on the verge of extinction in Irish waters thanks to over fishing by foreign trawlers.
It is not unlikely that Ireland is a net contributor to the EU. Time for answers from our politicians.

Ireland:Cowen's Downfall-What happened after referendum on Lisbon Treaty went down (Comedy)

Per Damien Mulley

Very funny comedy. Brian Cowen goes to war with the the middle class, working class, farmers, Dick Roche, Brian Lenihan, Micheal Martin, Enda Kenny, Eamon Gilmore, Patricia McKenna and Sinn Fein.

Ireland’s No vote on Lisbon Treaty blows French attack on Ireland’s Corporation Profits Tax out of the water

Today Shane Ross has an excellent article on this topic in todays Sunday Independent.
France will assume the EU presidency in July from Slovenia. It will chair all meetings of the EU finance ministers at the Council of Ministers. The European Commission plans to introduce a common consolidated corporate tax base (CCCTB). The plan to introduce this proposal was delayed until after the Irish referendum to avoid damage to the Yes campaign. This plan will result in the imposition of harmonised corporate tax rates on EU states contrary to Commission denials. The Commission has Ireland’s 12.5% Corporation Profits Tax in its sights-contrary to denials. France is a strong supporter of (CCCTB).

Prior to Irelands referendum on the Lisbon Treaty Christine Lagarde, French Finance Minister was determined to push ahead with the proposal under the French Presidency. Shane Ross alludes to this. According to last Thursdays Financial Times Christine Lagarde, French Finance Minister, said "that while the proposal for a common consolidated corporate tax base had not been abandoned altogether, Paris would no longer press other governments to back it over the next six months.
"It is on the agenda, but we are not pushing it," said Ms Lagarde in an interview. "It is alive, but not kicking very much."
She is basically admitting that The EU intends to dismantle Ireland's tax advantages by stealth. It is prepared to hold off until a second referendum on the Lisbon treaty is held in Ireland. As Shane Ross points out the No vote has stopped the French in their tracks.

So this plan has been parked temporarily. Now is the time for Ireland to ensure that all threats to Irelands 12.5% Corporation Profits Tax are removed. The threat lies dormant for the present. This is a matter of life and death for Irish industry as Ireland is on the periphery of Europe and consequently industry sufferers from higher transport costs to key EU markets. France and Germany do not suffer from this handicap. The 12.5% helps to compensate for this disadvantage. Removal will devastate Irish industry.

Hands off the 12.5% Corporation Profits Tax. If this issue is not satisfactorily resolved it will emerge with greater intensity in any second vote on the Lisbon Treaty.

Sunday Business Post/RedC Poll (for June) : FF and FG down 2% on General Election of 2007

• FF 40% (No change)


• FG 25% (-3%)


• Labour 10% (No change)


• Sinn Fein 10% (+1%)


• Greens 7% (+2%)


• PDs 2% (No Change)


• Independents 6% (No change)

Changes since the last poll are in brackets.

Both FF and FG are down 2% on their General Election results. FF has lost a referendum so 40% is quite a good result for it. Successful spinning by the FF Party leader Brian Cowen where he alleged unfairly that FG had not worked hard enough in the campaign has partially insulated FF. In addition Cowen is still in a honeymoon period.

FG has taken a hammering in the media especially in the Irish Times. In addition on last Monday nights Questions and Answers programme FF supporter Noel Whelan launched an unfair verbal assault on FG MEP Maighread McGuinness in relation to the referendum on the Lisbon Treaty. This had an impact on public opinion. Also FF had two speakers on Questions and Answers.
In addition stupid comments from FG MEP Gay Mitchell on TV served to deflect blame onto FG and away from FF for the referendum defeat. Mitchell needs to think before he speaks. He ended up doing FF’s dirty work for it. Many FF front benchers kept a low profile on the referendum issue.
FG leader Enda Kenny has suffered from a prolonged media assault.

Sinn Fein has benefited from its role in the No campaign and is up 3% on the General Election.

The Greens are up 2% on their General Election result benefiting form support for the Lisbon Treaty and from Patricia McKenna’s opposition.

The PDs at 2% are down almost 1% on their General Election result.

Independents at 6% remain unchanged since last Sunday Business Post poll.

Answers to opinion polls appear increasingly influenced by spin. It will be interesting to analyse the impact of the developing recession on Party fortunes. Unemployment has risen over the 200,000 mark last month whilst a huge deficit is opening up in the exchequer finances. Will the resulting pain for the electorate swamp spin from the Government spin machine?
The poll also confirms that the No voters in the referendum were strongly influenced by the abortion and neutrality issues. Also fear of the loss of influence and threats to Irelands taxation regime were major reasons for the No vote.

Irish No vote:Unhelpful comments from Mandelson and d’Estaing hinder resolution of difficulties

Today the King of spin EU Farm Commissioner Mandelson made a slashing attack on the Irish Yes campaign. He said in reference to the debate in Ireland “All of those fears should have been addressed all those misrepresentations should have been corrected. Frankly, the untruths that were put out by some of the propagandists should have been rebutted right at the beginning of this campaign. [By the Yes campaign]
If you don't defuse it and demolish it instantly, it gets its skates on and it's around the country and everyone is assuming it's right before the other side get up on their soapbox."

Peter Mandelson should look closer to home. His behaviour at the WTO talks triggered a massive rural backlash and protest vote at the polls. This came not alone from farm families but from small businessmen dependent on farming and food processing workers. Has he forgotten the destruction of the sugar beet industry? He appears well on the way to destroying Irish agriculture. Spin Mr Mandelson does not put bread and butter on the table.
Mandelson could show his bona fides at the WTO talks and desist from lecturing the Irish electorate.

Today former French President Valery Giscard d'Estaing said that Ireland must either hold a second referendum on the EU reform treaty or negotiate a special accord with the European Union in the wake of its No vote last Thursday.
Giscard d'Estaing was the chairman of the Convention that drafted the EU constitution, which collapsed when French and Dutch voters rejected the text in 2005.
He said in an interview to RTL radio. "A country that represents 0.7 percent of the European population...cannot decide for the others." Once more he is dictating to the Irish.
This intervention is unhelpful and displays arrogance typical of an out of touch liberal. This is par for the course with d’Estaing who was critical of “mistakes” made by French and Dutch voters when they rejected the EU Constitution in referenda.

Whether elitists like it or not a large segment of the Irish electorate has major concerns with the Lisbon Treaty. It is time to address them now. Cast iron guarantees from the EU on Corporation Profits Tax, neutrality and abortion-with no loopholes Mr d’Estaing- are essential, allied to a change in policy by Mandelson or his successor at the WTO talks. Otherwise this crisis will persist. It is time to put d’Estaing and Mandelson out to pasture.

Video-Stormy debate on Irish rejection of Lisbon Treaty at European Parliament

Hysterical Reaction to Ireland's rejection of Lisbon Treaty begins to die down

Over the weekend there has been a hysterical reaction amongst some Irish, German and French politicians and media organs to Ireland's No vote in the Lisbon Treaty referendum. However today the reaction of EU Foreign Ministers-in Luxembourg-to Micheal Martin was conciliatory. There was no finger pointing. Finnish Foreign Minister Alexander Stubb and Britain's David Miliband were particularly helpful.

Quite frankly I cannot understand what all the panic is about. The Dutch and French voted No in an EU referendum. Were those countries ostracised? Of course not.

Ireland needs cast iron guarantees on several issues such as Corporation Profits Tax, Neutrality, Social Issues and the loss of a Commissioner. It is essential that the 12.5% Tax rate is safeguarded. Otherwise the country will become an industrial desert. It is pointless being good Europeans if we sell out on these issues.

Watertight guarantees on Neutrality and Social Issues should not be beyond the bounds of diplomatic ingenuity.

The office of Junior Commissioner could be created for countries losing a Commissioner.

Greater understanding from the EU on Ireland difficulties in the fields of agriculture and fishing would generate goodwill in rural communities and help seal the deal.

It is time for solutions.

Reflections on Ireland's rejection of the Lisbon Treaty-Some lessons for EU Commission

Just been listening to Newstalk’s discussion on Ireland’s rejection of the Lisbon Treaty.
Journalist Michael O’Regan took a very hard line on some of the No voters. However I thing that it is necessary to delve into the mindset of NO voters.

Critics of the No vote in common with the major political parties and the EU Commission have failed to get the message been sent out by voters in countries such as Ireland, France and Holland.
The No vote is not a rejection of the EU. However it is a message to integrationists to slow down. Many in Ireland see the EU Commission as remote undemocratic and at times dictatorial. Comments from Jose Manuel Barroso, President of the European Commission and some French politicians cemented this view.

Farmers labouring under increased EU induced bureaucracy and quotas have begun to realise that their way of life is under serious threat. The destruction of the Irish Sugar beet industry by the EU Commission has alarmed farmers and struck a psychological blow. Whilst it may have slipped from public consciousness it was at the back of many farmers minds. The fear is that the dairying, beef, poultry and pig farming sectors will disappear in a similar manner.

Yet the Commission is perceived in rural Ireland as not taking a hard line with on foreign food imports which lack traceability. EU Trade Commissioner Peter Mandelson’s antics at the WTO negotiations where he appears prepared to sell out agriculture struck terror into farmers. There is a feeling that Commissioners are too powerful and not accountable to the electorate.

As farming declines large numbers of small businesses dependent on farming are under pressure. Many small businessmen, shopkeepers et al voted No for this reason.
Many workers in food processing voted No fearful for their jobs.
As EU inspired liberalisation of the postal service comes about the rural Post Offices have come under increasing threat.
The coastal communities hammered by EU regulation-specifically fishermen- are on the verge of revolt.

The reality that much of the productive sector in rural Ireland is increasingly hampered by EU Commission induced regulation.
Many people’s backs are to the wall. Elites in the Pale have failed to take cognisance of the the economic stresses building up in rural Ireland

Others voted No because the 12.5% Corporation Profits Tax is under threat. This is not a groundless fear. France and Germany appear determined to destroy Ireland’s competitive advantage. Ireland must defend this tax rate at all costs. There can be no surrender on this issue.
There is a strong fear that the EU Court of Human Rights would impose abortion on Ireland.
Working class voters-many of whom had begun too see living standards rise- have seen a rise in unemployment.

In summary the EU Commission has scored an own goal. It comes across as arrogant and out of touch not just to many Irish voters but many voters in France, Germany, Holland and Sweden. It needs to listen. It must be made more accountable. It must become more democratic. If it persists in ignoring large numbers of EU voters it runs the risk of spawning new extreme right wing and left wing parties.

Cast iron guarantees on issues such as Corporation Profits Tax, Social legislation and Irish agriculture are a sine qua non in any new negotiations to salvage the Lisbon Treaty. A little humility from the EU Commission mightn’t go amiss either.

Ireland's Voters Have Rejected the Lisbon Treaty-(Reasons why)

Firstly this is a vote against the Lisbon Treaty and not a vote against the EU as such. However it indicates a strong concern at the direction in which the EU is moving. This concern exists amongst voters not alone in Ireland but in countries such as France, Holland, Denmark and Sweden. There is a strong belief that Eurocrats are following their own agenda and are not in tune with the views of the voters. As the EU enlarges it runs the risk of disintegrating under the pressure of its own contradictions.

It is noticeable that Working Class areas voted strongly against the Treaty whilst more Middle Class areas were more in favour. In general rural voters leaned against the Treaty. The combined strength of FF, FG and Labour and the political establishment was unable to secure a Yes vote.

Reasons for Ireland’s No vote:

(1) Voters were not prepared to accept a loss of influence- particularly the loss of a Commissioner.

(2) Fear of the development of a European army- many women feared that their sons could be sent to war.

(3) Interference from Jose Manuel Barroso and threats from French politicians that Ireland would suffer angered voters.

(4) A fear that Europe is becoming increasingly bureaucratic and a pent up anger at high levels of bureaucracy.

(5) Anger in rural areas with Peter Mandelson, EU Trade Commissioner and a fear that the EU is determined to sacrifice farmers at the WTO. Agriculture is under enormous pressure. The destruction of Ireland's sugar beet industry is fresh in the minds of farmers.

(6) Fishing communities are under extreme economic pressure. They have protested strongly in the ballot box.

(7) Working class voters vented their anger at high inflation and increasing unemployment especially in building and construction.

(8) Many voters did not understand the Treaty.

(9) Respected businessmen such as Ulick McEvaddy and Declan Ganley-leader of Libertas- came out against the Treaty. In addition the NO campaign had excellent media performers such as Caroline Simons.

(10) Fear that Ireland’s 12.5% Corporations profits Tax would disappear.
A feeling that the EU Commission is undemocratic and is unprepared to listen to ordinary voters.

(11) Fear that abortion could be legalised.

(12) Some newspapers such as the Sunday Times opposed the Treaty. Shane Ross- business editor of the Sunday Independent- outlined arguments against the Treaty in a very influential article.

(13) Some voters wished to protest against the Government.

(14) The Government campaign was in all probability too slow getting off the ground.

(15) The NO campaign - a loose coalition of Libertas, some businessmen, Sinn Fein, some unions,the Socialist Party tapped into the mood of discontent which has been heightened by bleak economic news. Many voters are fearful for their future economic prospects.

Red C Poll:Yes marginally ahead with the No side gaining

The last Red C/Sunday Business Post opinion poll on the Lisbon Treaty -before the referendum- shows Yes at 42% a gain of 1% and No at 39% a gain of 6% since the last Red C poll.

The poll also found that among those who say they are certain to vote, the Yes side is even further ahead. However the Red C and the Irish Times/TNS polls have now shown large rises in support for the No campaigners. Dont knows stand at 19% down 7%. Of those very likely to vote-50% of total- Yes stands at 46% and No at 37%.

This referendum is wide open and could go either way. The fact that the number of Dont knows stands at 19% less than a week before the referendum indicates major uncertainty amongst a large segment of the electorate.

Irish Times/TNS mrbi poll shows Lisbon Treaty heading for shock defeat

"The Lisbon Treaty is heading towards a shock defeat with the No side now in the lead, according to the findings of the latest Irish Times/TNS mrbi poll.

It will take an unprecedented swing in the last week of the campaign for the Treaty to be carried.
The poll shows the number of people intending to vote No has almost doubled to 35 per cent (up 17 points) since the last poll three weeks ago, while the number of the Yes side has declined to 30 per cent (down 5 points).
The number of undecided voters is still a significant 28 per (down 12 points) cent, while 7 per cent won’t vote.

The massive increase by the No vote since the last poll has mainly come through gains among undecided voters but, even more ominously for the Yes side, it has lost some support to the No camp.

While the final outcome is still in the hands of undecided voters, the clear momentum is now with the No campaign, and it will take a dramatic shift in public attitudes over the next few days for the Yes side to win.

The swing to the No camp has not been prompted by domestic considerations, with just 5 per cent of those opposed to the Treaty saying they are influenced by a desire to protest against the Government.
The reason most often cited by No voters is that they don’t know what they are voting for or they don’t understand the Treaty, with 30 per cent of No voters listing this as the main reason for their decision. ......................................." Read full story at Irish Times

Lisbon Treaty: Sunday Business Post/Red C poll on Referendum indicates an electorate in a state of flux

• STATE OF THE REFERENDUM (Since last poll)

• Yes 41% (+3)
• No 33% (+5)
• Don’t Know 26% (-8)

The high level of dont knows indicates a large degree of confusion amongst a sizeable segment of the electorate. However this may not be the whole story. Increasingly there is unease within the country with what is perceived as meddling by EU bureaucrats in the internal affairs of Ireland. There is a suspicion that the EU will tamper with the 12.5.% Corporation Profits Tax. There is a fear that abortion will be foisted on the country. The WTO threat to Irish farming is a huge issue. There may be a temptation to make a protest vote. Many of the don’t knows may be unwilling to declare their real intentions of voting no. This would be a nightmare scenario for the Yes campaign.

It might be helpful if pollsters attempted to elicit more information from the don’t knows. The Yes campaign powered by FF, FG and Labour will in all probability succeed in convincing the electorate to accept the Lisbon Treaty. However many voters are highly suspicious. The electorate wants clear-cut answers on the range of issues alluded to above. Failure to address the electorate's concerns could be very costly for the Yes campaign

Luckily for the Yes campaign the Anti campaign has failed to use articulate spokes persons such as Caroline Simons very effectively.

Bertie Ahern resignation a political bombshell which rocks Irish political scene

The decision of Bertie Ahern to resign as Taoiseach and as leader of FF has certainly caught political observers by surprise. Ahern's decision is typical of the man. He has always jelled with the electorate and was certainly a man of the people in the sense that the general public always found him approachable. Nevertheless he is somewhat of an enigma. It can truthfully be said that not even front bench members could decipher his intentions on certain issues. He was closest to his Drumcondra friends.

His travails at the Mahon Tribunal and the evidence of Grainne Carruth effectively sealed his fate. Increasingly government ministers were preoccupied fending off questions on Mr Ahern’s evidence. It is obvious that the pressure had begun to take its toll on him, as he appeared to have aged immeasurably in recent months.
Undoubtedly a failure to resign could have impacted seriously on the referendum on the Lisbon Treaty.
The verdict of the Mahon Tribunal will play a major role in determining his place in Irish political history.

Clearly his Governments have failed to resolve the health crisis. In addition prior to the 2002 and 2007 General Elections public expenditure escalated out of control. This undoubtedly contributed to the feel good factor which ensured electoral success. In addition in parts of Dublin and Limerick there are major problems with crime gangs. Nevertheless he has had some noticeable achievements to his credit. To this observer the six outlined below are his greatest:

• He championed social partnership.


• He united the warring Reynolds and Haughey factions on assuming leadership of FF.


• He led FF to three successive General Election victories.


• He played a major role in the Good Friday Agreement.


• He was partly responsible for the development of the Celtic Tiger. The Rainbow Government's decision to introduce a 12.5% Corporation Tax rate also contributed enormously.


• He successfully assembled coalition governments with the Greens and PDs

Clearly he has done FF some service.

Ireland-Green Party leadership rebuffed on Lisbon Treaty

Green Party members -at today's special conference-have voted in favour of supporting the Lisbon Treaty in the forthcoming referendum. However the party leadership failed to secure required two thirds majority.
Members are now free to support whichever side they wish.
Of the 318 delegates eligible to vote at today's conference, 195, or 63%, voted to support the Treaty, while 117 (27%) were opposed.

This is a stinging rebuke for party leader John Gormley who has failed to carry his party with him. Conversely the donkey and cart wing -ably marshalled by Patricia McKenna -has been reinvigorated. The leadership may argue that it came close to a two thirds majority. Nevertheless its position is more perilous than may appear at first sight. Many of those who voted to support the Treaty -today- have strong reservations but did not wish to embarrass John Gormley. In the privacy of the ballot box a large percentage will vote against the Treaty.

Patricia McKenna has claimed that the vote will strengthen the party leadership in its dealings with FF. She is whistling past the graveyard. Bertie Ahern has skilfully neutered the Green Party. Its input into the Programme for Government is minimal. The leadership has sold out on many of its core principles such as co-location, the use of Shannon by the US military and incineration. The government will continue in power irrespective of whether the Greens remain in government or not. Green Party TDs - in their pronouncements -are increasingly indistinguishable from FF. They have lost their radical edge. It is inevitable that party headquarters will attempt to move against the donkey and cart wing . Patricia McKenna is the bête noire of the Realos and will not be forgiven for today's fiasco.
Interestingly only 318 delegates voted at today's conference. An FF or FG convention -for one constituency-would have more delegates.