Saturday, June 21, 2008

Sunday Business Post/RedC Poll (for June) : FF and FG down 2% on General Election of 2007

  • FF 40% (No change)

  • FG 25% (-3%)

  • Labour 10% (No change)

  • Sinn Fein 10% (+1%)

  • Greens 7% (+2%)

  • PDs 2% (No Change)

  • Independents 6% (No change)

Changes since the last poll are in brackets.

Both FF and FG are down 2% on their General Election results. FF has lost a referendum so 40% is quite a good result for it. Successful spinning by the FF Party leader Brian Cowen where he alleged unfairly that FG had not worked hard enough in the campaign has partially insulated FF. In addition Cowen is still in a honeymoon period.

FG has taken a hammering in the media especially in the Irish Times. In addition on last Monday nights Questions and Answers programme FF supporter Noel Whelan launched an unfair verbal assault on FG MEP Maighread McGuinness in relation to the referendum on the Lisbon Treaty. This had an impact on public opinion. Also FF had two speakers on Questions and Answers.
In addition stupid comments from FG MEP Gay Mitchell on TV served to deflect blame onto FG and away from FF for the referendum defeat. Mitchell needs to think before he speaks. He ended up doing FF’s dirty work for it. Many FF front benchers kept a low profile on the referendum issue.
FG leader Enda Kenny has suffered from a prolonged media assault.

Sinn Fein has benefited from its role in the No campaign and is up 3% on the General Election.

The Greens are up 2% on their General Election result benefiting form support for the Lisbon Treaty and from Patricia McKenna’s opposition.

The PDs at 2% are down almost 1% on their General Election result.

Independents at 6% remain unchanged since last Sunday Business Post poll.

Answers to opinion polls appear increasingly influenced by spin. It will be interesting to analyse the impact of the developing recession on Party fortunes. Unemployment has risen over the 200,000 mark last month whilst a huge deficit is opening up in the exchequer finances. Will the resulting pain for the electorate swamp spin from the Government spin machine?
The poll also confirms that the No voters in the referendum were strongly influenced by the abortion and neutrality issues. Also fear of the loss of influence and threats to Irelands taxation regime were major reasons for the No vote.

No comments: