Democrats Dilemma as Obama moves closer to nomination

The outcomes of the North Carolina and Indiana primaries have further weakened Clinton's prospects of securing the Democratic party nomination.

The Party is now on the horns of a dilemma. Obama is winning in terms of the popular vote and delegate count. As North Carolina is a larger state than Indiana, Obama has moved further ahead in the delegate count and popular vote.

However there is increasing antipathy towards him amongst a large section of the white Democratic electorate throughout the US, which has plumped increasingly for Clinton. The Rev Jeremiah Wright issue has severely damaged Obama.

The 30% African American electorate in North Carolina has to some extent blunted Clinton's success and handed the state to Obama.
Obama’s victory in North Carolina is a major blow to Clinton who had hoped to secure knock out successes in both states. Such an outcome would have rocked the super delegates and possibly stampeded them into the Clinton camp.

Obama’s success does not alter the fact that if he secures the Democratic nomination-as is highly probable- he is likely to lose a sizeable section of Reagan Democrats to John McCain.
It is probable that Clinton as Democratic candidate would hold a higher proportion of the conservative Democrat vote. She will target super delegates with this message in a final effort to detach them from Obama. It is important to remember that Clinton has adopted an increasingly conservative posture to win white working class votes. This has camouflaged her liberal policies. It is a political stunt, which has worked well for her.

She will also endeavour to secure voting rights for the Michigan and Florida delegates. Will the Democratic nominee be chosen by only 48 of the 50 states?
A resolution of this issue could help Clinton.

If the super delegates were to move towards Clinton and deprive Obama of the nomination the Democratic Party would be torn asunder as African Americans walked out at the Convention. This is unlikely to happen.

Delegates are damned if they do and damned if they don’t. This is music to the ears of John McCain who needs every break that he can get.


Today McCain reassured conservative voters on the issue of the appointment of conservative judges. This is an astute move, which will appeal to Reagan Democrats and will help consolidate GOP support.

Pennsylvania Primary: Clinton engages in the politics self delusion-Obama is still odds on favourite for Democratic Party nomination

Whilst Hillary Clinton may have won the Pennsylvania primary by a margin of 10% (55%-45%) and kept her hopes of securing the Democratic Party nomination alive, the outcome only marginally improves her delegate count vis a vis Obama. Barack Obama will fall from a lead of 161 in elected delegates to about 145.

Obama holds a massive financial advantage, with $41 million raised in March and $42 million available to spend against Clinton this month.Clinton raised $20 million in March and had $9 million for the primary available at the beginning of April. However she has debts of $10.3 million, putting her in the red.

There are nine pre-convention contests remaining.It is anticipated that Clinton will win in West Virginia and Kentucky, whilst Obama is expected to take North Carolina, Oregon and South Dakota. Indiana and Montana are at this stage too close to call.
It is important to remember that Independents can vote in the Indiana and North Carolina primaries. The demographics of both are somewhat different from Pennsylvania-both have a younger age profile. Both of these factors may aid Obama.
The Guam caucus is insignificant whilst the Puerto Rico Primary is unlikely to give Clinton a huge delegate bonus. There are some indications of a growth in support for Obama here.

It is highly unlikely that either candidate will have the required 2,025 elected delegates necessary to secure the nomination.
However Obama will lead in terms of the popular vote and the number of elected delegates.
The thorny issue of Michigan and Florida has yet to be resolved.
It is probable that pressure will increase on Clinton to withdraw from the race with the conclusion of the primaries. The super delegates may come under pressure from Al Gore, Nancy Pelosi, Howard Dean and John Edwards to declare support for Obama. This could put Obama over the top.

If the issue is not finalised before the Democratic Convention- in August- the implications for the party are serious. The Clintons will utilize every strategy and stratagem to secure the nomination. If the super delegates were to deprive Obama of the nomination the party would be torn asunder. African Americans would walk. Clinton would lose to John McCain.
Obama is odds on favourite. It will take a political earthquake to deprive him of the nomination.

Philadelphia debate: Time to challenge Clinton and Obama on their half baked economic policies and forget sideshows

Tonight Sens. Barack Obama and Hillary Rodham Clinton debate at the National Constitution Center. The debate is being telecast nationally by ABC and will start at 8 p.m.

Since the last debate in Ohio on Feb. 26 both candidates have been buffeted by controversy.
There has been a major controversy over comments made by Obama’s pastor Rev Jeremiah Wright.
Tonight Obama will likely have to explain, what he meant when he told donors in San Francisco last week that Pennsylvanians are “bitter” over their economic circumstances and “cling” to religion and guns."
Support for Obama in Pennsylvania was on an upward curve prior to his San Francisco statement. On the basis of several polls Obama appears to be trailing Clinton by at least 6%.

It is likely that Clinton will attempt to goad him, in the hope that he may make another foot in mouth comment tonight. She will attempt to portray him as inexperienced, rash and elitist. Success for Clinton tonight could stampede more blue-collar voters into the Clinton camp and result in a devastating defeat for Obama in Pennsylvania. If such a scenario were to unfold Clinton could sway more super delegates. Nevertheless Obama will probably prevail in the North Carolina Primary. In the unlikely event of a knock out blow by either candidate, the scene is set for a possible bloody convention.

Clinton herself will come under pressure on her Bosnia lies. Indeed she has a history of exaggeration and lies. Obama will probably target Clinton on this issue. He will attempt to portray Clinton as a political insider incapable of introducing meaningful change.

Is it too much to hope for some forensic questioning of both Clinton and Obama on their economic policies?
Both have attempted to bribe voters with their own money. Both are committed to an enlarged role for the state. Increased bureaucracy and quangos- as advocated by both candidates- will lead to an explosion in public expenditure and massive rises in taxation. There are no free lunches.

This is a watershed election. Clinton and Obama are Socialists. McCain is conservative and favours restraint in public expenditure and low taxes.

An appalling vista could unfold: A Democratic President and a Democratic Congress.- both pledged to huge public expenditure splurges. No doubt Clinton or Obama would introduce change. The change would involve higher taxation.

North Carolina Primary may end Clinton's prospects-Click on Video