A new opinion poll shows that half of those surveyed no longer trust Taoiseach Bertie Ahern to run the country after hearing his evidence to the Mahon Tribunal.
Those saying they will vote in favour of the Lisbon Treaty outnumber opponents by two to one, with 46% saying the will vote yes, 23% saying they will vote no and 31% undecided.
According to the Red C for the Sunday Business Post the state of the political parties has changed little since the last poll a month ago.
· Fianna Fáil 37% (+1%)
· Fine Gael 31% (-1%)
· Labour is at 10%
· Green Party 7%
· Sinn Féin 8% (-1%)
· PDs 2%.
· Independents and others 6% (+2%)
Looking at the 2007 General Election FF is down 4.6% whilst FG is up 3.7%. Labour is unchanged. The Greens are up 2.3%. Sinn Fein is up 1% and PDs are down 0.7%.
Statistically these changes in political party support-since the last poll- are insignificant and within the margin of error. FF appears to have halted the slide. FF politicians and media supporters have fought a strong rear guard action and have emphasized the necessity to tackle the current economic problems. This resonates with the electorate, which is Tribunal weary. In addition the increase in Green Party support is probably temporary. It is in all probability soft FF support which will return to the party in the course of any General Election campaign.
Some FG politicians have placed too great an emphasis on the Mahon Tribunal. FG has introduced a Private Members' motion on broadband in the Dail. The significance of Simon Coveney’s proposals was drowned out in a flood of political recriminations on Mahon. How many voters realise that FG has produced such a comprehensive policy? Similarly the import of the FG Private Members Motion on Autistic Children was soon obscured. An over emphasis on Mahon will not put bread and butter on the table. Voters have other priorities. Also if FG is to progress further Enda Kenny must place a greater emphasis on the economy with concise sharp questioning. In addition the opposition erred in pressurising Brian Cowen on Ahern’s travails. Why should the opposition attempt to bring the FF leadership issue to the boil. This only favours FF. Sensible oppositions allow governments to stew.
The Labour Party is hamstrung by the level of Sinn Fein support in working class areas of Dublin. Labour must attempt to take on Sinn Fein.
Showing posts with label Red C Opinion Poll. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Red C Opinion Poll. Show all posts
Saturday, March 1, 2008
Saturday, January 26, 2008
Ireland-Red C/Sunday Business Post poll shows FF down 6% on its General Election result
The Last Red C/Sunday Business Post poll took place in November 2007. Such polls are taken monthly-with the exception of December. This is the first poll in the series for 2008. Its results are quite similar to those of the Irish Times/ TNS mrbi poll published earlier this week.
It is a more fruitful exercise to compare Red C poll results with the ’07 General Election outcome.
According to Red C, FF support has increased by four points -since the last poll at the end of November -to 36%. Nevertheless the party is down 6% on its General Election result.
Fine Gael is up by one point to 32% on November. It is up 5% on its General Election result.
However the Labour Party is down three points on the November poll to 10%. Labour also secured 10% of the vote in ‘07 General Election.
The Green Party is down two points to 7%- but up 2% on its General Election result.
Sinn Féin stands at 9% -2% higher than its General Election result.
The PDs are unchanged at 2% but down 0.7% on the General Election result
Independents and others drop two points to 4%-down 2.6% on the General Election.
Asked if they believed Bertie Ahern's evidence to the Mahon Tribunal, a clear majority, 54% said they did not, an increase of 12% since last September.
This is a poor poll result for FF as the party secured 42% in the General Election. Much of the soft FF support has moved to Sinn Fein and the Greens. This will in all probability return in the course of any future General Election campaign. It is unlikely that FF would secure anything less than 39% in a General Election. The poll probably understates the real level of FF support. Some FF supporters for obvious reasons are unwilling to indicate their real voting intentions. In the privacy of the ballot box no such inhibitions exist.
The FG performance is impressive as it is up 5% on the ’07 General Election. The party must endeavour to hold this new support with clear-cut policy positions on a wide variety of issues. Fine Gael has been rejuvenated by the influx of ambitious new TDs. It now has a strong front bench, which is more than a match for its FF counterparts. In some polls prior to the 07 General Election FG secured 31% of the vote but fell back to 27% in the actual election. This is soft support. Nevertheless FG appears to be returning to the support levels, which it obtained, in the early 1980s.
The Labour Party is stagnant. It is under pressure from Sinn Fein on the left. It has serious organizational problems in many constituencies. It must wrest working class support from FF if it is to make progress.
Sinn Fein may take some encouragement from the 2% rise in support from the ’07 Election. In all probability it a temporary abode for unhappy FF supporters who will return to their natural party in the course of the next General Election.
Similarly the Greens would be unwise to read too much into the 2% rise in support since ’07 General Election. The Green Party is a temporary rest home for some unhappy FF supporters. The Greens having already sold out on many of their core principles may face retribution from the electorate – a la the PDs.
The PD performance is abysmal. Looks like the good ship PD is heading for the rocks.
It is a more fruitful exercise to compare Red C poll results with the ’07 General Election outcome.
According to Red C, FF support has increased by four points -since the last poll at the end of November -to 36%. Nevertheless the party is down 6% on its General Election result.
Fine Gael is up by one point to 32% on November. It is up 5% on its General Election result.
However the Labour Party is down three points on the November poll to 10%. Labour also secured 10% of the vote in ‘07 General Election.
The Green Party is down two points to 7%- but up 2% on its General Election result.
Sinn Féin stands at 9% -2% higher than its General Election result.
The PDs are unchanged at 2% but down 0.7% on the General Election result
Independents and others drop two points to 4%-down 2.6% on the General Election.
Asked if they believed Bertie Ahern's evidence to the Mahon Tribunal, a clear majority, 54% said they did not, an increase of 12% since last September.
This is a poor poll result for FF as the party secured 42% in the General Election. Much of the soft FF support has moved to Sinn Fein and the Greens. This will in all probability return in the course of any future General Election campaign. It is unlikely that FF would secure anything less than 39% in a General Election. The poll probably understates the real level of FF support. Some FF supporters for obvious reasons are unwilling to indicate their real voting intentions. In the privacy of the ballot box no such inhibitions exist.
The FG performance is impressive as it is up 5% on the ’07 General Election. The party must endeavour to hold this new support with clear-cut policy positions on a wide variety of issues. Fine Gael has been rejuvenated by the influx of ambitious new TDs. It now has a strong front bench, which is more than a match for its FF counterparts. In some polls prior to the 07 General Election FG secured 31% of the vote but fell back to 27% in the actual election. This is soft support. Nevertheless FG appears to be returning to the support levels, which it obtained, in the early 1980s.
The Labour Party is stagnant. It is under pressure from Sinn Fein on the left. It has serious organizational problems in many constituencies. It must wrest working class support from FF if it is to make progress.
Sinn Fein may take some encouragement from the 2% rise in support from the ’07 Election. In all probability it a temporary abode for unhappy FF supporters who will return to their natural party in the course of the next General Election.
Similarly the Greens would be unwise to read too much into the 2% rise in support since ’07 General Election. The Green Party is a temporary rest home for some unhappy FF supporters. The Greens having already sold out on many of their core principles may face retribution from the electorate – a la the PDs.
The PD performance is abysmal. Looks like the good ship PD is heading for the rocks.
Saturday, October 27, 2007
Ireland-Red C Opinion Poll analysis
According to the Red C opinion poll in tomorrow's Sunday Business Post there is little change in the state of the political parties.
The telephone poll was taken on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. This was before the provisional licence debacle and the controversy over Ministerial pay rises. The last poll was taken in September.
- Fianna Fáil 39 % (-1%).
- Fine Gael 27% (No change)
- Labour 10% (-1%)
- Greens 7% (No change)
- Sinn Fein 8% (+2%)
- PD 2% (-1%)
- Ind/Others 7% (+1%)
All changes are within the statistical margin of error. PD support is abysmal. That party which has been reduced to two TDs appears to have no future at this juncture. The rise in Sinn Fein support is within the statistical margin of error and no firm conclusions can be drawn from the 2% rise. That party has been quiet since September has achieved little of note. The Greens stand at 7%. This is a honeymoon period for them. Much of that 7% is soft and will probably melt away as the Government implements unpopular public expenditure cuts.
A 1% drop for Labour is insignificant. Labour must wrest support from the Greens and Sinn Fein. FG has held firm at 27%. The party will be pleased with this outcome, as it appears to have held its General Election gains. The challenge for FG is to drive its support above the 30% mark. FG will be confident of mopping up Green middle class votes in the long term.The drop of 1% for FF is marginal. However it is down 3% on the General Election result.
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