FF support crashes in Irish Times /TNS mrbi poll.

• Fianna Fail 27 (-15)
• Fine Gael 34 (+11)
• Labour 14 (-1)
• Sinn Fein 8 (+0)
• Greens 4 (-1)
• Independents 13 (+7)

"The level of dissatisfaction with the Government is now a massive 76 per cent, while 61 per cent of people are dissatisfied with the way Mr Cowen is doing his job.Satisfaction with the Government is now just 18 per cent, a drop of 28 points since the last Irish Times poll in June, while satisfaction with Taoiseach Brian Cowen has fallen to 26 per cent, a drop of 21 points." The poll puts Fine Gael ahead of Fianna Fáil for the first time ever in an Irish Times opinion survey.

Source: Irish Times

Whilst all polls are just a snapshot in time this particularly survey is sure to shock even the most ardent FF and Green Party supporters. Unpopular government decisions on the medical card for over 70s and severe education and agricultural cutbacks have sapped popular support for the government. Unemployment in Ireland has reached a 10 year high of 6.7 percent and has grown by 60 percent over the past year to more than 250,000. The decision to defer the cervical cancer vaccination programme for young girls has further angered voters.

With a deficit projected at 7% more unpopular cutbacks and rises in unemployment are in the offing. Can the government withstand the inevitable outcry, which will ensue? The next general election is not due until 2012. Ireland faces at least two very difficult years on the economic front. Next year it is anticipated that unemployment may reach 350,000. This will further strain government financial resources whilst efforts must continue to bring the deficit down below the 3% level required by the EU.

In any general election situation FF support would quickly rise to 40%. Much of the support lost to FG would probably return. FF supporters have an amazing capacity to rally behind their party.

FG has benefited strongly in this poll. However the party must learn to consolidate this rise in support. Richard Bruton -FG spokesman on finance- has starred in the economic debates and the party has benefited accordingly.

Labour Party support is also well up on its general election showing in 2007.

The poll is a warning to the Green Party that its support has begun to wane. Indeed the Greens may become the new PDs. The PDs acted as FFs mudguard and have now voted themselves out of existence. The Green Party is trapped. If it pulls down the Government the electorate will hammer it in any ensuing election. If it remains in government it must tolerate more unpalatable measures. FG and Labour can now mop up Green Party support.

Fine Gael beats FF into second place in RedC/Sunday Business Post poll

The Red C poll in tomorrow's Sunday Business Post shows that for the first time since polling began, Fine Gael is 7% ahead of FF.

This public opinion poll however comes with a health warning. Red C carried out their monthly poll for the newspaper on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday - at the height of the medical card controversy. In addition opposition to education cutbacks had begun to gain momentum. The IFA has begun a campaign against cutbacks in agriculture whilst the closure of army barracks has spawned further opposition. Unemployment has risen sharply and will continue to rise in the immediate future. The increase in health charges is highly unpopular. VHI charges will also rise as a consequence of budget decisions. The underfunding of local authorities will cause a sharp rise in rates and water rates. In addition a supplementary budget cannot be ruled out- probably after next Summers Local Elections.

A fall in support for FF is not unexpected. However the scale of the fall is rather surprising. The party is down 10% to 26%.FF has shown a capacity to recover in the run in to General Elections. However the harsh decisions required to put the economy on a firm footing may sap the party's energy somewhat. The results are hugely encouraging for FG and Labour. However both parties must convert this support into votes at the ballot box. FG will underestimate FF at its peril. Prior to the 07 General Election FG rose sharply in the polls but fell back in the final week of the campaign.

• Fine Gael 33% (+5%)
• Fianna Fail 26% (-10%)
• Labour 15% (+6%)
• Greens 6% (-1%)
• Sinn Fein 10% (+1%)
• PDs 2%(-1%)
• Independents/Others 8% (+0%)

Just 23% of those polled said they were confident the Government could manage the public finances out of the recession, down 19% since last month, while 59% said they were not confident and 21% said they did not know.

Ireland:15,000 Old Age Pensioners Demonstrate Outside the Dail

15,000 Irish Old Age pensioners demonstrate outside the Dail to condemn the FF/Green/PD Government's decision to end universal entitlement to the Medical Card for over 70s. The decision of the Government to backtrack on its original proposal and to exclude 5% of the pensioners from entitlement, has failed to mollify the pensioners who fear that the breach of universality is the thin edge of the wedge to erode other entitlements.

Ireland-Government Surrenders on Medical Cards for Over 70s(Grey Voters flex muscles)

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This TV3 video features a pensioners rally in Dublin to oppose the governments decision to remove automatic entitlement to medical cards for the over 70s. This video speaks for itself. Government representatives who attempted to address the meeting were prevented from speaking. Opposition leaders Enda Kenny and Eamon Gilmore were loudly applauded.The venue for the meeting had to be moved from a city hotel to nearby St Andrew's Church in Westland Row to accommodate the numbers.

The meeting unanimously passed a motion calling on the Government to reverse its decision to end universal entitlement for medical cards for all over 70s.


Last Tuesday the FF/Green/PD government withdrew automatic entitlement to a Medical Card for all over 70s . Means testing was to be introduced to determine entitlement. In the course of the budget speech some FG and Labour Party TDs already realised that the government had committed a huge political blunder. There was an immediate outcry from the elderly and from organizations representing them. The decision struck terror into large numbers of pensioners. I have never encountered such fury among pensioners. The FG and Labour parties launched a ferocious attack on the measures in the Dail. Within 24 hours of the announcement some TDs in the government parties and indeed some ministers such as Brian Lenihan began to wobble. In addition independent TDs such as Michael Lowry and Finian McGrath declared that they could not support the measures. FF TD Joe Behan resigned from the party.

The pressure continued to build. A vote on an FG private members motion in the Dail seeking the restoration of the entitlement to all over 70s was due on tomorrow night. There was no certainty that the government could vote down the motion. Today the government caved in and raised the threshold levels so as to ensure that only the top 5% of pensioners would be deprived of the card. The new income thresholds for qualification for a medical card for over-70s are €700pw for a single person, equivalent to €36,500pa, and €1,400pw for a couple, or €73,000pa.
Existing medical card holders will not have to undergo a means test. Instead, they will be asked to notify the Health Service Executive if they are over the income threshold. 20,000 people will lose their medical cards.
People who currently have a medical card and who are over the new income threshold will not keep their medical card after 1 January, under legislation to be brought forward.

However the fury has not abated as the principle of universality has been breached. Serious damage has been done to the authority of the government and to the leadership of Brian Cowen. This episode has seriously eroded the authority of Mary Harney as Minister for Health. The grey vote has flexed its muscles in no uncertain terms and will grow in importance as the population ages. Many pensioners were terrified by the proposed budget changes. In addition the budget proposals were viewed as the ultimate insult to a generation that made huge sacrifices in the 1980s when the marginal rate of income tax was 58%. Much of Ireland's prosperity today is due to its sacrifices. The tsunami of criticism has rocked the FF party to its foundations. In addition the Greens have been seriously damaged. A new political force has been energised. Expect to hear more from the over 70s who have emerged radicalised and more confident from the heat of battle.

Today the government backtracked on the application of a 1% levy to all income-part of last weeks budget- and announced that those on incomes below the minimum wage will be exempt from the proposed 1% levy. The threshold for the 2% levy will be lowered bringing in more middle-income taxpayers to compensate for the loss of revenue.

Two u-turns -on one day- are unheard of in Irish politics. Now huge opposition to changes in the pupil teacher ratio -in the nations schools- is building. In addition university students are up in arms over the increase in the registration fee from €900 to €1500. This government could be heading for the cliff of political destruction.

Ireland-Government rocked by groundswell of opposition to medical card proposals forced to backtrack

No sooner had Minister for Finance Brian Lenihan completed his budget speech than Government deputies from FF, Greens and PDs broke out in thunderous applause. However opposition deputies on the FG and Labour benches had already spotted serious flaws in some of the proposed health and education cutbacks.

The Government's decision to end universal medical card provision for people over 70 lit the fuse. The opposition in the Dail was apoplectic with rage. Enda Kenny and Eamon Gilmore spearheaded the attack. Yet Brian Cowen, Mary Harney and Mary Coughlan strongly defended the proposal. Government TDs were slow to react.

Grey voters vented their spleen with a display of ferocity seldom seen in Irish politics. Many elderly people have been stunned and frightened by the proposals. All organs of the media were utilized. Now many backbench FF, Green and Independent TDs supporting the government have begun to rebel. Independents such as Michael Lowry and Finian McGrath have come out strongly in opposition
Today Wicklow TD Joe Behan resigned from the Fianna Fáil party in protest at the Budget citing not alone cutbacks in health but also in education. Mr Behan has accused the Cabinet of being out of touch with the electorate.

Just one question for many of these backbench FF deputies. Why did they not shout stop when the FF/PD government allowed public expenditure to rocket by 25% in the two years leading up to the 2007 general election. The property boom bubble supported this growth in public expenditure. It was clearly unsustainable. Many of these deputies won their seats on the back of benign budgets. It is possible that the outgoing government would have been re-elected without such a massive growth in public expenditure.

Four years ago Richard Bruton FG Finance spokesman warned of the unsustainability of the public expenditure splurge and spoke continuously about the inevitable consequences.. Economists such as George Lee, Dr Alan Ahearne and David McWilliams warned about a property boom crash. They were accused of talking down the economy.

The present Medical Card proposals would not get through the Dail. Any effort to force them through would tear the FF Party asunder. The Independents and Greens would probably desert. Tonight on RTE Taoiseach Brian Cowen announced that he would set up a process to deal with the problem. The Government intends to try and renegotiate with the IMO with a view to securing savings.

It is likely that the proposals will be substantially amended or parked. However FF backbenchers, Green Party and Independent TDs had better get used to bad news. Indeed a supplementary budget cannot be ruled out in July 2009 (after the Local Elections) to arrest the slide in the public finances. In addition there may be at least two more harsh budgets one in December 2009 and the other in December 2010. The Government has scored a huge political own goal. Happy are those sitting on the opposition benches.

Irelands Harshest Budget in living memory-Taxpayer and Consumer blues.

This budget was set against the background of a horrific deterioration in the public finances caused by the bursting property bubble in Ireland and by international factors. In the two budgets prior to the 2007 general election the FF/PD government allowed public expenditure to grow by 25%. This growth in public expenditure was supported by huge tax inflows from the property sector. Now that these have largely dried up the Government was left high and dry. The Government is now heist on its own petard.
This was an accident waiting to happen. Taxes from the property market are notoriously unreliable.

This is the harshest budget in living memory. Even to outline some of the harsh measures sends a chill through the bones.
There are some minor beneficial changes in Social Welfare Payments and Tax Bands allied to provisions geared towards innovation and R and D. There are some aids for the property market. However this is a TAKE budget which will raise an extra €2 billion in taxes. Government Borrowing is forecast at 6.5% of GNP. This is much too high. The EU requirement is 3%. In essence the Government must borrow €13 billion.

Income tax has been increased. A levy of 1% has been placed on all income up to €100,000 and at 2% on earnings over €100,0000. This is an income tax rise by another name. The PRSI ceiling has been raised also. Mortgage relief for non-first time house buyers has been cut from 20% to 15%. A €200 tax has been introduced on all benefiting from employer provided car parking in urban areas. Motor Tax rises by 4%/5%. Those who own a second property face a new € 200 tax. DIRT ,Capital Gains Tax and VAT have been raised.

The government has cut back financial support to local authorities so a massive hike in commercial rates and water rates will filter through.

Automatic entitlement to a Medical Card for all over 70s has been withdrawn. There is to be a 20 % increase in private and semi-private bed charges in public hospitals and Accident and Emergency charges are to increase by 50% from €66 to €100 for non medical card holders who attend A&E departments without a letter from their GP. The Drug Payment Scheme (DPS) threshold is being increased from €90 to €100 per month which, the Government says, will lead to savings of €15 million in drug costs.

The Registration Charge for Universities has been raised from €900 to €1500. The pupil teacher ratio in schools has been increased.
Petrol will rise by 8 cent per litre.
The budget will cost middle-income families an average of €2,500 per annum. There will be a €10 airport charge for passengers.
There are also some social welfare cutbacks.
The hair-shirt is back in Irish politics with a vengeance. It is likely that consumer confidence has been severely dented. In addition it is probable that two more harsh budgets may be in the offing.