Wednesday, September 12, 2007

US- Can Fred Thompson win the Republican Party nomination?

According to a CNN/Opinion Research Corp poll released Tuesday "the former New York mayor Rudy Giuliani garners 28 percent nationally among registered Republicans, while Thompson is one point behind at 27 percent.

In a similar poll taken in August, Giuliani registered 29 percent, while Thompson, then not an official candidate, was at 22 percent.

Arizona Sen. John McCain comes in third at 15 percent, with former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney close behind at 11 percent. McCain was at 16 percent in the August poll, while Romney registered 12 percent. Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee is at 5 percent, while no other Republican candidate pulls more than 2 percent." Mike Huckabee would make an outstanding candidate. His magnetic personality and original thinking are just what the Presidency requires. Lack of finance has hindered his campaign.

This is a strong performance from Thompson who has only just entered the race. Giuliani benefits from name recognition and the splintering of the GOP vote among the other contenders.

If Thompson's campaign can gain some momentum much of the conservative vote going to the other candidates could gravitate to him. It is a reasonable presumption that most of Mike Huckabee's vote would go to Thompson. As McCain and Romney have adopted anti-abortion stances and their supporters are largely conservative it is probable that much of that support could go to Thompson. "Forty-seven percent of the public say they have never heard of Fred Thompson or have an opinion of him. Only 14 percent have no opinion of Rudy Giuliani".On this basis Thompson probably has much greater potential for growth in support than Rudy Giuliani.

Giuliani's policy on immigration-whilst mayor of New York may hurt him in the primaries. His pro abortion stance is anathema to the overwhelming majority of GOP voters. Thompson can win the nomination.

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