John McCain's victory in Florida has severely dented Romney's prospects of securing the GOP nomination. McCain now has momentum going into Super Tuesday. Rudi Giuliani's poor third place performance ensures that his prospects have been effectively dashed. It is quite possible that Giuliani may withdraw and throw his weight behind McCain. The majority of Giuliani supporters lean more towards McCain than Romney. Mike Huckabee who finished in fourth place intends to contest Super Tuesday. He will have a sizeable block of delegates at the GOP convention. He may become the king maker if neither McCain or Romney has an overall majority of delegates. He leans towards McCain and could yet become a Vice Presidential candidate.
John McCain is now the front runner and favourite to win the GOP nomination. A McCain/ Huckabee ticket would appeal to a wide strand of public opinion. Democrats fear McCain more than Romney. Can Romney turn the tables on McCain on Super Tuesday? One thing is certain he will outspend McCain.
Showing posts with label Giuliani. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Giuliani. Show all posts
Wednesday, January 30, 2008
Sunday, January 20, 2008
McCain wins South Carolina GOP primary and is now favourite to win nomination
Senator John McCain has scored a narrow victory over Mike Huckabee by 33% to 30%. In a state with such a high proportion of evangelical voters this is no mean achievement. Fred Thompson performed poorly securing 16% of the vote. Mitt Romney won just 15% of the vote. It is probable that Thompson damaged Mike Huckabee's prospects. Thompson has no realistic prospect of securing the GOP nomination and will probably bow out. It is now onto Florida for candidates for the nomination. Huckabee's campaign is hamstrung by lack of financial muscle. This will be highly problematic for him in Florida and later on Super Tuesday.
John McCain's campaign is now gaining momentum. This must make him favourite to win in Florida. Giuliani's failure to engage seriously in South Carolina and Iowa may cost him dearly. Indeed it is arguable that he will never be acceptable to a large segment of the Republican base-especially the social conservatives. McCain has attempted to mend fences with conservatives. This appears to be be paying rich political dividends. A key factor in the outcome in Florida will be the number of absentee ballots already cast. Romney will pour in huge financial resources into Florida. Mitt Romney spent $4 million in South Carolina. Nevertheless McCain may possibly shade Florida.
John McCain's campaign is now gaining momentum. This must make him favourite to win in Florida. Giuliani's failure to engage seriously in South Carolina and Iowa may cost him dearly. Indeed it is arguable that he will never be acceptable to a large segment of the Republican base-especially the social conservatives. McCain has attempted to mend fences with conservatives. This appears to be be paying rich political dividends. A key factor in the outcome in Florida will be the number of absentee ballots already cast. Romney will pour in huge financial resources into Florida. Mitt Romney spent $4 million in South Carolina. Nevertheless McCain may possibly shade Florida.
Wednesday, January 9, 2008
McCain rises phoenix like to win New Hampshire Primary
Last summer many had written John McCain’s political obituary. His campaign was broke. The comeback kid's barnstorming tour of New Hampshire has ensured that he has risen phoenix like from the ashes of political destruction to win a famous victory. He is now probably the new GOP front runner. Once more Mitt Romney has failed to secure victory. This is a devastating defeat for Romney who as Governor of Massachusetts is essentially on home territory. Romney’s prospects of securing the GOP nomination have been seriously damaged. Mike Huckabee who has only spent a few days canvassing here fared well to secure third place. He can expect a large vote in upcoming Michigan and South Carolina primaries. He is a strong contender.Giuliani's performance is abysmal and at this juncture bodes ill for his future prospects.
Sunday, January 6, 2008
GOP New Hampshire Debate- Some notable quotes
John McCain to Mitt Romney:“We disagree on a lot of issues but I agree, you are the candidate of change" . Here John McCain was referring Mitt Romney's change of position on issues such as abortion. Romney's rejoinder- which was “the personal barbs are interesting but unnecessary" lacked the same subtlety.
Mitt Romney to Mike Huckabee: “Governor, don’t try to characterize my position.”
Mike Huckabee to Mitt Romney“Which one? Here Huckabee was referring to Mitt Romneys change of stance on various issues.
Romney attacked the McCain-Kennedy Immigration Plan.
McCain retorted :“It’s not amnesty and for you to describe it as you do in the attack ads, my friend, you can spend your whole fortune on these attack ads, but it will won’t be true.”
Mr. Giuliani: You know, Ronald Reagan –
Mr Giuliani: Charlie, if Ronald Reagan were here, who we all invoke, he would grab the microphone, say it’s my microphone, I paid for it. And Ronald Reagan did amnesty. He actually did amnesty.
Mr Giuliani: “I think he would be in one of Mitt’s negative commercials.”
Mr Huckabee: "I think we ought to un-tax innovation, un-tax income. Anything -- any time you penalize productivity, it's counter intuitive to an economy. And one of the reasons that we're dependent is because we have allowed the oil companies to dictate not just prices, but policy. And it's time to say that we're not going to allow dictators, whether it's the Middle East or from Venezuela, to continue to, in essence, enslave the American people, which is exactly what we've done.
Senator McCain is right. We have an issue now where we're paying for both sides of the war on terror. We pay for it with our tax dollars to fund the military, but every time we swipe our credit card in the gas pump, we might as well be sending a check over to the madrassas that are training the terrorists that eventually are going to come back to us. And that's why it's got to be an urgent matter of utmost priority".
Mr Huckabee: "when there is a serious threat to this country, it is not a threat because we happen to be peace-loving people; it's a threat because in the heart of the radical Islamic faith - not all Islam, and that's what's very important. This isn't an Islamic problem; this is a jihadist problem. This is an Islamofascism problem. And if you read the writings of those who most influenced -- and Governor Romney mentioned Said Qutub, executed in Egypt in 1966. He is one of the major philosophers behind this. And the fact is, there is nothing about our attacking them that prompts this. They are prompted by the fact they believe that they must establish a worldwide caliphate that has nothing to do with us other than we live and breathe, and their intention is to destroy us".
Mr Paul:"We run up the deficits. We tax. We borrow. We borrow from the Chinese. We can't borrow enough. Then what do we do? We print the money, and then you wonder where the inflation comes? The value of the dollar goes down and prices go up where the government gets involved in certain things, like housing or medical care or education. Prices are skyrocketing. So you have to deal with the monetary issue to solve the problem of the medical issue".
Mr Thompson:" We've got the best health care in the world. It costs more than it should. We can either go one of two ways. We can let the government take it over, and that'll lower costs, like - like they do in other countries. We will also sacrifice care, which nobody wants to do - we're not going to do in this country. Or we can make the markets work more efficiently."
Mr Romney:"Charlie, when I sat down with my family and had the discussion about whether or not to get into this race, we went around the room, and each one of my five sons and five daughters-in-law expressed their views. And it's because of them and because of my concern about the future of America that I'm in this race. I'm convinced that America is the greatest nation on earth, that we are a good nation and a strong nation. And we are safe and prosperous, in part, because of our greatness and our strength..."
Mr McCain: "I'd also like to give President Bush a little credit as we have this discussion. Right after 9/11, every expert in the world said there would be another attack on the United States of America. There hasn't been...."
Mitt Romney to Mike Huckabee: “Governor, don’t try to characterize my position.”
Mike Huckabee to Mitt Romney“Which one? Here Huckabee was referring to Mitt Romneys change of stance on various issues.
Romney attacked the McCain-Kennedy Immigration Plan.
McCain retorted :“It’s not amnesty and for you to describe it as you do in the attack ads, my friend, you can spend your whole fortune on these attack ads, but it will won’t be true.”
Mr. Giuliani: You know, Ronald Reagan –
Mr Giuliani: Charlie, if Ronald Reagan were here, who we all invoke, he would grab the microphone, say it’s my microphone, I paid for it. And Ronald Reagan did amnesty. He actually did amnesty.
Mr Giuliani: “I think he would be in one of Mitt’s negative commercials.”
Mr Huckabee: "I think we ought to un-tax innovation, un-tax income. Anything -- any time you penalize productivity, it's counter intuitive to an economy. And one of the reasons that we're dependent is because we have allowed the oil companies to dictate not just prices, but policy. And it's time to say that we're not going to allow dictators, whether it's the Middle East or from Venezuela, to continue to, in essence, enslave the American people, which is exactly what we've done.
Senator McCain is right. We have an issue now where we're paying for both sides of the war on terror. We pay for it with our tax dollars to fund the military, but every time we swipe our credit card in the gas pump, we might as well be sending a check over to the madrassas that are training the terrorists that eventually are going to come back to us. And that's why it's got to be an urgent matter of utmost priority".
Mr Huckabee: "when there is a serious threat to this country, it is not a threat because we happen to be peace-loving people; it's a threat because in the heart of the radical Islamic faith - not all Islam, and that's what's very important. This isn't an Islamic problem; this is a jihadist problem. This is an Islamofascism problem. And if you read the writings of those who most influenced -- and Governor Romney mentioned Said Qutub, executed in Egypt in 1966. He is one of the major philosophers behind this. And the fact is, there is nothing about our attacking them that prompts this. They are prompted by the fact they believe that they must establish a worldwide caliphate that has nothing to do with us other than we live and breathe, and their intention is to destroy us".
Mr Paul:"We run up the deficits. We tax. We borrow. We borrow from the Chinese. We can't borrow enough. Then what do we do? We print the money, and then you wonder where the inflation comes? The value of the dollar goes down and prices go up where the government gets involved in certain things, like housing or medical care or education. Prices are skyrocketing. So you have to deal with the monetary issue to solve the problem of the medical issue".
Mr Thompson:" We've got the best health care in the world. It costs more than it should. We can either go one of two ways. We can let the government take it over, and that'll lower costs, like - like they do in other countries. We will also sacrifice care, which nobody wants to do - we're not going to do in this country. Or we can make the markets work more efficiently."
Mr Romney:"Charlie, when I sat down with my family and had the discussion about whether or not to get into this race, we went around the room, and each one of my five sons and five daughters-in-law expressed their views. And it's because of them and because of my concern about the future of America that I'm in this race. I'm convinced that America is the greatest nation on earth, that we are a good nation and a strong nation. And we are safe and prosperous, in part, because of our greatness and our strength..."
Mr McCain: "I'd also like to give President Bush a little credit as we have this discussion. Right after 9/11, every expert in the world said there would be another attack on the United States of America. There hasn't been...."
Monday, December 10, 2007
Huckabee surges in CBS News/ New York Times Poll
The huge upsurge in support for Mike Huckabee has amazed many political pundits.It is all the more remarkable considering the fact that his campaign is run on a shoe string. According to the CBS News/ New York Times Poll Huckabee and Giuliani are now neck and neck. This is in sharp contrast to the corresponding poll on 10/07 .
REPUBL ICAN CHOICE FOR THE NOMINATION(Among Republican Primary Voters)
- Giuliani 22% (-7% )
- Huckabee 21 (+17%)
- Romney 16(+4%)
- McCain 7 (-11%)
- Thompson 7 (-14%)
Huckabee has made huge gains among conservatives, white evangelicals and those who attend church weekly. Both Giuliani’s and Thompson’s standing among those voters has declined. Romney receives support from those who attend religious services weekly (43% of Republican primary voters), and ties Huckabee among this group of voters.
Comment:
Huckabee's compassionate conservatism has struck a chord with GOP voters. Now some Democrat strategists fear that Huckabee's conservatism on social and fiscal policy could pose major problems for their candidate. He has the capacity to win African -American votes and also votes from Independents and conservative Democrats. Huckabee has clear cut policies on major issues. What you see is what you get. He supports the Fair Tax so he is a tax cutter. He is strong on the Federal Deficit. He is implacably opposed to abortion. He stresses the importance of God. Increasingly support from Fred Thompson appears to have gravitated towards Mike Huckabee.
Mitt Romney has targeted Huckabee. It is estimated that Romney is spending $85,000-plus a day on TV ads. Huckabee lacks the financial muscle to compete with this war chest. However he could win sympathy votes from an electorate which has become increasingly cynical about massive spending in electoral campaigns. Hopefully the Huckabee campaign can amass sufficient funds to counter negative advertising from opponents.
Tuesday, November 13, 2007
US Politics:Republican Party-Social Conservatives come centre stage
The Social Conservatives within the Republican Party have begun to flex their muscles. However they have been unable to coalesce behind a single candidate for the Republican Party nomination. To a certain extent this has diluted their influence in the campaign.
Christian conservative leader Pat Robertson's endorsement of Republican front-runner Rudy Giuliani has surprised many conservatives who are mystified at Robertson's decision to endorse a liberal on social issues. Robertson's star has been setting and his support for Giuliani is unlikely to be of major significance.
Mike Huckabee has secured additional endorsements from influential faith leaders across the country, augmenting a strong show of support he received Friday from Southern Baptist Convention leaders.
The new major endorsements include:
· Stephen Strang, Founder of Charisma Magazine – Lake Mary, Fla.
· Rick Scarborough, President and founder of Vision America – Pearland, Tex.
· Jerry Cox, President of Arkansas Family Council – Little Rock, Ark.
· Janet Folger, President of Faith2Action – Dania Beach, Fla.
· Jim Pfaff, President and CEO of Colorado Family Action – Castle Rock, Col.
· Mathew Staver, Founder and chairman of Liberty Counsel – Lynchburg , Va.
· Kelly Shackelford, President of Free Market Foundation – Plano, Tex.
· Phil Burress, President of Citizens for Community Values – Ohio
Sen. Sam Brownback of Kansas -who is conservative on social issues and is a former presidential candidate -has endorsed Sen. John McCain of Arizona.
Paul Weyrich, cofounder of the Moral Majority, supports former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney.
Fred Thompson, the former senator from Tennessee and prime-time television star has secured the National Right to Life Committee’s endorsement .
Christian conservative leader Pat Robertson's endorsement of Republican front-runner Rudy Giuliani has surprised many conservatives who are mystified at Robertson's decision to endorse a liberal on social issues. Robertson's star has been setting and his support for Giuliani is unlikely to be of major significance.
Mike Huckabee has secured additional endorsements from influential faith leaders across the country, augmenting a strong show of support he received Friday from Southern Baptist Convention leaders.
The new major endorsements include:
· Stephen Strang, Founder of Charisma Magazine – Lake Mary, Fla.
· Rick Scarborough, President and founder of Vision America – Pearland, Tex.
· Jerry Cox, President of Arkansas Family Council – Little Rock, Ark.
· Janet Folger, President of Faith2Action – Dania Beach, Fla.
· Jim Pfaff, President and CEO of Colorado Family Action – Castle Rock, Col.
· Mathew Staver, Founder and chairman of Liberty Counsel – Lynchburg , Va.
· Kelly Shackelford, President of Free Market Foundation – Plano, Tex.
· Phil Burress, President of Citizens for Community Values – Ohio
Sen. Sam Brownback of Kansas -who is conservative on social issues and is a former presidential candidate -has endorsed Sen. John McCain of Arizona.
Paul Weyrich, cofounder of the Moral Majority, supports former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney.
Fred Thompson, the former senator from Tennessee and prime-time television star has secured the National Right to Life Committee’s endorsement .
Monday, October 22, 2007
Orlando Debate- Republican Party candidates emphasise conservative credentials
The Republican Party debate held at Orlando and carried on Fox News was superb with candidates determined to stake our clear cut positions on a wide variety of issues. Each candidate stressed his conservative credentials.
Mike Huckabee and Fred Thompson appeared under least pressure on this issue. Both are conservative by conviction and deed. Mike Huckabee is a rising star and oozes talent and confidence. Giuliani was challenged strongly in relation to sanctuary cities and abortion. He tried to turn the tables on Thompson. He was unsuccessful eventhough he stressed his own achievements in controling crime and reducing taxes in New York.
Mitt Romney performed quite strongly as did John Mc Cain. Duncan Hunter and Tom Tancredo had a solid grasp of the issues. It is unlikely either will make a breakthrough. Ron Paul has no hope of the nomination. The following reference to Hillary Clinton is particularly memorable:"She hasn't run a corner store. She hasn't run a state. She hasn't run a city. She has never run anything," Mitt Romney asserted in a typical comment. "And the idea that she could learn to be president, you know, as an internship just doesn't make any sense." Romney is a master wordsmith.
In conclusion there was an edge and an absence of fudge in the debate. This is in marked contrast to Democratic debates where Clinton appears unable to articulate clear cut positions on issues. Many of her statements lack conviction. Statements are frequently woolly and designed minimise risk of loss of votes at all costs.
Mike Huckabee and Fred Thompson appeared under least pressure on this issue. Both are conservative by conviction and deed. Mike Huckabee is a rising star and oozes talent and confidence. Giuliani was challenged strongly in relation to sanctuary cities and abortion. He tried to turn the tables on Thompson. He was unsuccessful eventhough he stressed his own achievements in controling crime and reducing taxes in New York.
Mitt Romney performed quite strongly as did John Mc Cain. Duncan Hunter and Tom Tancredo had a solid grasp of the issues. It is unlikely either will make a breakthrough. Ron Paul has no hope of the nomination. The following reference to Hillary Clinton is particularly memorable:"She hasn't run a corner store. She hasn't run a state. She hasn't run a city. She has never run anything," Mitt Romney asserted in a typical comment. "And the idea that she could learn to be president, you know, as an internship just doesn't make any sense." Romney is a master wordsmith.
In conclusion there was an edge and an absence of fudge in the debate. This is in marked contrast to Democratic debates where Clinton appears unable to articulate clear cut positions on issues. Many of her statements lack conviction. Statements are frequently woolly and designed minimise risk of loss of votes at all costs.
Wednesday, September 12, 2007
US- Can Fred Thompson win the Republican Party nomination?
According to a CNN/Opinion Research Corp poll released Tuesday "the former New York mayor Rudy Giuliani garners 28 percent nationally among registered Republicans, while Thompson is one point behind at 27 percent.In a similar poll taken in August, Giuliani registered 29 percent, while Thompson, then not an official candidate, was at 22 percent.
Arizona Sen. John McCain comes in third at 15 percent, with former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney close behind at 11 percent. McCain was at 16 percent in the August poll, while Romney registered 12 percent. Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee is at 5 percent, while no other Republican candidate pulls more than 2 percent." Mike Huckabee would make an outstanding candidate. His magnetic personality and original thinking are just what the Presidency requires. Lack of finance has hindered his campaign.
Comment:
This is a strong performance from Thompson who has only just entered the race. Giuliani benefits from name recognition and the splintering of the GOP vote among the other contenders.
If Thompson's campaign can gain some momentum much of the conservative vote going to the other candidates could gravitate to him. It is a reasonable presumption that most of Mike Huckabee's vote would go to Thompson. As McCain and Romney have adopted anti-abortion stances and their supporters are largely conservative it is probable that much of that support could go to Thompson. "Forty-seven percent of the public say they have never heard of Fred Thompson or have an opinion of him. Only 14 percent have no opinion of Rudy Giuliani".On this basis Thompson probably has much greater potential for growth in support than Rudy Giuliani.
Giuliani's policy on immigration-whilst mayor of New York may hurt him in the primaries. His pro abortion stance is anathema to the overwhelming majority of GOP voters. Thompson can win the nomination.
Thursday, September 6, 2007
US-GOP Debate At University of New Hampshire
Eight contenders -for the Republican Party nomination for President- gathered at the University of New Hampshire last night.The number of candidates involved and time constraints reduced the effectiveness of the debate somewhat. However questions on Iran Iraq family values and tax cuts were quite effective in eliciting concrete responses from candidates.
Giuliani appeared to lose ground last night. He over emphasised his achievements in New York whilst ignoring the country at large. He is deeply distrusted by many conservatives. He favours abortion which is anathema to most Republican Party voters. He once supported ultra-liberal Democratic candidate George McGovern for President.
Romney and Giuliani faced tough questions on illegal immigration. Romney was questioned as to why he didn't do more to stop ``sanctuary'' cities of Massachusetts such as Cambridge, Orleans and Somerville. Romney said governors are not responsible for mayors who fail to follow the law.
Giuliani's approach to immigration in New York was roundly criticised.
Giuliani defended his record in New York city, arguing that he made fighting crime a higher priority.
Mike Huckabee performed strongly on an anti abortion platform. He is unlikely to win the nomination as he lacks sufficient funds. Nevertheless he would make a powerful Vice Presidential candidate.
Sen. Sam Brownback spoke strongly on family values.
Tom Tancredo of Colorado took a very strong anti illegal immigrant line. He fouled up somewhat on a question relating to the torture of terrorist prisoners.
Duncan Hunter of California spoke forcibly on the Iraq war and was quite knowledgeable. However he is highly unlikely to win the party nomination.
Ron Paul took a strong anti war line. His clash with Mike Huckabee -on the war issue- was one of the highlights of the night. He most certainly will not win the nomination.
John McCain probably won the debate. His military experience came to the fore in questions on Iran and Iraq. He scored strongly on the tax cuts issue arguing forcibly for severe curbs on wasteful expenditure as a means of funding a reduced tax burden. This is music to the ears of fiscal conservatives.
Last night Fred Thompson chose to announce his White House bid on an entertainment program, NBC's The Tonight Show with Jay Leno. He bypassed the New Hampshire debate. He is a strong conservative candidate who could unite the GOP.
Friday, August 31, 2007
US-Fred Thompson to join Presidential Race next Thursday
Former Senator Fred Thompson of Tennessee will officially enter the race for the Republican Party's presidential nomination next Thursday. He is a consistent conservative and comes from a southern state.As an actor, Thompson has performed in film and on television. He supports free trade and low taxes. He is generally regarded as pro life. He is also a lawyer. He has the potential to unify the overwhelming majority of conservatives unlike Mitt Romney and former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani. He is likely to appeal to Independents and right wing Democrats also.
This is his message which is very much a rallying call to conservatives:
"We are the most prosperous nation in the world, the most powerful and we have brought more freedom to more people in the history of the world and been a beacon to all freedom seeking people around the world for a couple hundred years now, and we are going to stay that way. We are going to stay strong as a nation and strong as a party."
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