The Red C poll in tomorrow's Sunday Business Post shows that FG leads FF by 5%. There is an improvement in FFs fortunes with a rise of 4% since the last Red C poll. However FF is still down 12% on its general election result. FG at 35% gains 2% since the last survey. FGs support is up 8% on its general election showing. Labour is down 1% since the last poll but is still 4% higher than its 2007 general election outcome. A 1% drop is statistically insignificant. The Greens drop 1% for the second successive month. Support for the Greens is likely to evaporate in the coming months as the economic recession, tax rises and public expenditure cuts bite. This is the first poll since the PDs were wound up.
FG will be buoyed up by its showing in various polls and by a very successful conference in Wexford this weekend. Nevertheless it is likely that FF will come in at around 40% in any general election situation unless FG can break FFs stranglehold on the loyalties of a significant proportion of the electorate. The economic crisis has damaged FFs claims to competence in the economic management of the country. The FG party must improve organization and communication and continue to demonstrate economic competence. Finance Spokesman Richard Bruton is by far the most impressive performer on the economy in the Dail. His talents are wasted in opposition.
The reality is that the core support for all Irish political parties will continue to drop. This opens up prospects for huge swings in support in future elections. It is a moot point as to when these huge swings will occur. Could the organizational structures of the larger parties blunt the severity of such swings?
The next general election is due in 2012.-assuming that the FF/Green coalition survives. If the economy has not rebounded strongly FF will lose marginal seats. This would be sufficient to send the party into opposition unless it could cobble together a coalition with Labour.
FG will be buoyed up by its showing in various polls and by a very successful conference in Wexford this weekend. Nevertheless it is likely that FF will come in at around 40% in any general election situation unless FG can break FFs stranglehold on the loyalties of a significant proportion of the electorate. The economic crisis has damaged FFs claims to competence in the economic management of the country. The FG party must improve organization and communication and continue to demonstrate economic competence. Finance Spokesman Richard Bruton is by far the most impressive performer on the economy in the Dail. His talents are wasted in opposition.
The reality is that the core support for all Irish political parties will continue to drop. This opens up prospects for huge swings in support in future elections. It is a moot point as to when these huge swings will occur. Could the organizational structures of the larger parties blunt the severity of such swings?
The next general election is due in 2012.-assuming that the FF/Green coalition survives. If the economy has not rebounded strongly FF will lose marginal seats. This would be sufficient to send the party into opposition unless it could cobble together a coalition with Labour.
- Fine Gael 35% (+2%)
- Fianna Fail 30% (+4%)
- Labour 14% (-1%)
- Greens 5% (-1%)
- Sinn Fein 8% (-2%)
- Independents/Others 8% (+0%)
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