Sunday Business Post-McGurk argues for FF-Labour Coalition

Tom McGurk is quite critical of Pat Rabbitte under the heading "Rabbitte's long march has come to an inglorious end".This article is factually incorrect in a number of respects.

• He states that "Since the foundation of the state, Fianna Fail has been seen by the electorate-time after time-as the natural party of government. This is factually incorrect. Cumann na nGaedhael (ancestors of FG) was the natural party of government from 1923-1932. FF was founded in 1926. It attained power in 1932.


• Referring to the Labour party he states that "the result was catastrophic for the party,with Labour barely increasing its vote at all. In fact the ultimate political achievement of Rabbitte' devotion to the pact was to drag FG back from the point of extinction." This is utter nonsense. In the 2002 General Election FG secured 22% of the vote. That was not extinction. It still had a huge organisation after the 2002 General Election. How does McGurk explain the strong FG performance in the Local Elections in 2004? It got within a handful of seats of FF. It won most seats in the 2004 European Elections. This was prior to the Mullingar Accord. In the 2007 General Election there were no huge seat losses for Labour. So how was the election catastrophic for Labour?

Tom's prefererence is for a Drumcondra Accord whereby Labour would prop up Bertie Aherne.

In 1932 Labour propped up the minority FF Government. By so doing it ceded much working class support to FF. It has never recovered this vote.

In coalition with FF under Albert Reynolds Labour agreed to a tax amnesty. This cost Labour dearly. FF is Labour's greatest enemy and competitor for working class support. FF would like to kill Labour with kindness.

Tom McGurk knows that the Greens may be decimated in the 2012 General Election. If this comes to pass FF will need another coalition partner. In Tom's ideal world this will be an FF-Labour coalition. I suspect that he desires an FF led Government in perpetuity.

The Mullingar Accord-the reality

Several journalists have incorrectly claimed that Labours failure to make seat gains in the 2007 General Election sprung from the Mullingar Accord. One of these is Kevin Rafter in today's Sunday Tribune who states:
The one significant difference, however, is that Fine Gael has made it out of the doldrums and, largely thanks to the Mullingar Accord, the seat gap between Labour and Fine Gael has widened once more. The opportunity for Labour after 2002 was to focus not on whether it ever went into government with Fianna Fail but rather on replacing Fine Gael as the second largest party in the state. Fine Gael was in such a mess after 2002 that Labour could have achieved a historic realignment in the Irish party system.....
This analysis is fatally flawed on a number of counts

• When FG bombed in the 2002 General Election it lost 20% of its vote. Much of this scattered to Independents. Some FG voters switched to the PDs to prevent an overall majority for FF. In 2002 Labour adopted a go it alone strategy. Yet the lost FG votes did not go to Labour. These FG votes were largely conservative and were on loan to Independents and PDs. Labours go it alone strategy also failed.
• FG conservative voters would not give first preferences to Labour. If Labour were to replace FG it had its chance in 2002. That was its chance for realignment. It was never on.
• When Enda Kenny assumed the leadership of FG he reorganised the party from top to bottom. The fruits of this reorganisation were seen in the excellent local election results of 2004 where FG got within a handful of seats of FF. FG won most seats in the Euro Elections. This was prior to the Mullingar Accord. The Mullingar Accord evolved from a belief after the 2004 Euro and Local Elections that FG and Labour together could replace the FF-PD coalition. The Mullingar Accord did not exist at the time of the Euro and Local Elections.
• Kevin Rafter and others fail to realise that there is a conservative block of voters which votes FG and will not switch to Labour to facilitate a realignment. It is by ideology conservative. It largely distrusts FF. It may go on loan from time to time to Independents and smaller parties. It eventually returns.
• Labours organisational problems in constituencies such as Tipperary South and South Kerry cost it vital seats. The Mullingar Accord did not prevent the election of new TDs such as Sean Sherlock.
• FF is Labours greatest enemy as it competes strongly and successfully for the working class votes.

To summaries: Labours difficulties stem not from the Mullingar Accord but from the conservative nature of the Irish electorate and organisational difficulties in several constituencies. When Labour adopted a go it alone position in 2002 it also failed to make a big breakthrough.

RTE and the Labour Party leadership

Listening to David McCullough last night on RTE 1 TV he argued that FG had reason to be grateful to Pat Rabbitte. The implication being that the FG seat gains resulted from the Mullingar Accord.

As I have already argued the seat gains were a bounce back from the freak FG result in 2002. FG reorganised in the wake of the 2002 disaster. Enda Kenny played a major role in this.
FG did exceptionally well in the Local Elections of 2004 and won most seats in the Euro elections. This was prior to the Mullingar Accord.

Tom McGurk once more focussed on the Mullingar Accord. His argument was that it ruled out the possibility of coalition with FF. Tom's emphasis is wrong.
Eoin O Murchu continuously argues for a Left Wing Alliance of Labour and Sinn Fein and the Socialist Party. Such an alliance is a non starter. The days of extreme left politics -throughout Europe- are dead and gone. Get used to it Eoin. They bring nothing but high taxation and economic stagnation.
Mary Ellen Symon argues from an Extreme Right Wing perspective. Again not satisfactory. She made one valid point in relation to Irish taxation. She referred to the high levels of indirect taxation and the problems posed for businesses.
Tommy Broughan appeared on Morning Ireland. Sounded like a man who wished to contest the leadership.

Ireland-Resignation of Pat Rabbitte as Labour Party leader

The resignation of Pat Rabbitte is a devastating blow for the Labour Party. Articulate highly intelligent and well briefed Rabbitte was a colossus. His rapier like interventions in debates were a joy to behold.

A minority within the Labour Party never really accepted the Mullingar Accord. Some elements within Labour unfairly blamed him for the failure of the party to make large seat gains. Their analysis is fatally flawed.

Labours failure to make inroads resulted not from its electoral strategy but rather from a combination of events in the final week of the campaign. Michael McDowell destroyed the PDs as a meaningful force in Irish politics but he damaged the prospects of left wing parties with scare tactics in the course of the RTE debate. Also Eoghan Harris and John Waters on the Late Late consolidated the doubts in the minds of a section of the electorate. Much of what Harris claimed was factually incorrect. But he got away with it.

Much is made of the fact that FG made large gains. This was inevitable because the real level of support for FG is in the 50 to 55 seat zone. The 2002 result for FG was a freak. FG mainly won back seats that it had lost through destroying the PDs. The FG surge was not at the expense of Labour.

Labour has had major competition on the Left from the Greens Sinn Fein and the Socialist Party. This has served to depress its vote. Now that the Greens have vacated the opposition benches there is potential for FG and Labour to mop up the large number of disaffected Green votes.

Organisationally Labour has been weak in key constituencies.This has cost the party dearly.

Tommy Broughan was a critic of the Mullingar Accord. He seems to forget that Labour adopted a go it alone strategy in 2002. Where were the large seat gains?

It is probable that FG and Labour will make gains in the 2012 General Election. Notwithstanding the economic boom and SSIA money FF had a close call. Economic circumstances in 2012 are unlikely to be as favourable for the outgoing government.

Tommy Broughan should have the courage of his convictions and put his name forward in the leadership election.