RTE and the Labour Party leadership

Listening to David McCullough last night on RTE 1 TV he argued that FG had reason to be grateful to Pat Rabbitte. The implication being that the FG seat gains resulted from the Mullingar Accord.

As I have already argued the seat gains were a bounce back from the freak FG result in 2002. FG reorganised in the wake of the 2002 disaster. Enda Kenny played a major role in this.
FG did exceptionally well in the Local Elections of 2004 and won most seats in the Euro elections. This was prior to the Mullingar Accord.

Tom McGurk once more focussed on the Mullingar Accord. His argument was that it ruled out the possibility of coalition with FF. Tom's emphasis is wrong.
Eoin O Murchu continuously argues for a Left Wing Alliance of Labour and Sinn Fein and the Socialist Party. Such an alliance is a non starter. The days of extreme left politics -throughout Europe- are dead and gone. Get used to it Eoin. They bring nothing but high taxation and economic stagnation.
Mary Ellen Symon argues from an Extreme Right Wing perspective. Again not satisfactory. She made one valid point in relation to Irish taxation. She referred to the high levels of indirect taxation and the problems posed for businesses.
Tommy Broughan appeared on Morning Ireland. Sounded like a man who wished to contest the leadership.

Ireland-Who will be the next leader of the Labour Party?

There are at least six possible candidates. Eamonn Gilmore is intellectually very strong and has a powerful grasp of detail. He is definitely a front runner.

Brendan Howlin is enthusiastic and quite able. However he is Leas Ceann Comhairle. He will probably run. He prefers coalition with FF. The next General Election is due in 2012 by which time people will be sufficiently tired of FF to throw that party out of power. Howlin may not be the right leader on that account.

Joan Burton Liz McManus and Roisin Shorthall may also stand. Though formidable politicians it is doubtful if any one of the three would have the depth of support necessary to win.

Finally Willie Penrose has a powerful organisation in the Longford-Westmeath constituency. If he decides not to stand he could be a king maker.

At this juncture it appears that Gilmore(Democratic Left) and Howlin (Old Labour) will be the front runners.

Ireland-Resignation of Pat Rabbitte as Labour Party leader

The resignation of Pat Rabbitte is a devastating blow for the Labour Party. Articulate highly intelligent and well briefed Rabbitte was a colossus. His rapier like interventions in debates were a joy to behold.

A minority within the Labour Party never really accepted the Mullingar Accord. Some elements within Labour unfairly blamed him for the failure of the party to make large seat gains. Their analysis is fatally flawed.

Labours failure to make inroads resulted not from its electoral strategy but rather from a combination of events in the final week of the campaign. Michael McDowell destroyed the PDs as a meaningful force in Irish politics but he damaged the prospects of left wing parties with scare tactics in the course of the RTE debate. Also Eoghan Harris and John Waters on the Late Late consolidated the doubts in the minds of a section of the electorate. Much of what Harris claimed was factually incorrect. But he got away with it.

Much is made of the fact that FG made large gains. This was inevitable because the real level of support for FG is in the 50 to 55 seat zone. The 2002 result for FG was a freak. FG mainly won back seats that it had lost through destroying the PDs. The FG surge was not at the expense of Labour.

Labour has had major competition on the Left from the Greens Sinn Fein and the Socialist Party. This has served to depress its vote. Now that the Greens have vacated the opposition benches there is potential for FG and Labour to mop up the large number of disaffected Green votes.

Organisationally Labour has been weak in key constituencies.This has cost the party dearly.

Tommy Broughan was a critic of the Mullingar Accord. He seems to forget that Labour adopted a go it alone strategy in 2002. Where were the large seat gains?

It is probable that FG and Labour will make gains in the 2012 General Election. Notwithstanding the economic boom and SSIA money FF had a close call. Economic circumstances in 2012 are unlikely to be as favourable for the outgoing government.

Tommy Broughan should have the courage of his convictions and put his name forward in the leadership election.