Ireland: Green Party faces wipe out in any early General Election

Ireland's Green Party has been wiped out in the local elections. It lost all its seats in Dublin and has just three seats in the rest of the country. In the months prior to the local and Euro elections the party was damaged by the resignations of two councillors, Bronwen Maher (Dublin City Council) and Chris O'Leary (Cork City Council). They were strongly critical of the direction the leadership had taken the party since going into government with Fianna Fail in 2007. This was followed by the resignation of former MEP Patricia McKenna who contested the Euro elections-in Dublin- as an independent and outpolled the official Green candidate Deirdre De Burca.
Deirde De Burca demanded a recount and lost the party further credibility.
Chris O'Leary contested the local elections as an independent and was reelected. Last weeks ugly smear directed at Enda Kenny backfired.

Tonight on RTE defeated Green candidate Niall Ó Brolcháin -from-Galway-mentioned the possibility of crossing the floor and joining FG and Labour in a new government. This suggestion was promptly rubbished by Pat Rabbitte and Phil Hogan who stressed the necessity of a general election to ensure that a new government had a mandate. Quite simply the Greens are caught between a rock and a hard place. Continued participation in government is damaging the party. However if the Greens were to precipitate a general election the party would in all probability lose its full complement of TDs.The Greens would go the way of the PDs.
The Green Party has no option but to remain in government and hope that the tide turns in the next 2-3 years.
Surely Green turkeys will not vote for Christmas.

Ireland-Who will be the next leader of the Labour Party?

There are at least six possible candidates. Eamonn Gilmore is intellectually very strong and has a powerful grasp of detail. He is definitely a front runner.

Brendan Howlin is enthusiastic and quite able. However he is Leas Ceann Comhairle. He will probably run. He prefers coalition with FF. The next General Election is due in 2012 by which time people will be sufficiently tired of FF to throw that party out of power. Howlin may not be the right leader on that account.

Joan Burton Liz McManus and Roisin Shorthall may also stand. Though formidable politicians it is doubtful if any one of the three would have the depth of support necessary to win.

Finally Willie Penrose has a powerful organisation in the Longford-Westmeath constituency. If he decides not to stand he could be a king maker.

At this juncture it appears that Gilmore(Democratic Left) and Howlin (Old Labour) will be the front runners.

Ireland-Resignation of Pat Rabbitte as Labour Party leader

The resignation of Pat Rabbitte is a devastating blow for the Labour Party. Articulate highly intelligent and well briefed Rabbitte was a colossus. His rapier like interventions in debates were a joy to behold.

A minority within the Labour Party never really accepted the Mullingar Accord. Some elements within Labour unfairly blamed him for the failure of the party to make large seat gains. Their analysis is fatally flawed.

Labours failure to make inroads resulted not from its electoral strategy but rather from a combination of events in the final week of the campaign. Michael McDowell destroyed the PDs as a meaningful force in Irish politics but he damaged the prospects of left wing parties with scare tactics in the course of the RTE debate. Also Eoghan Harris and John Waters on the Late Late consolidated the doubts in the minds of a section of the electorate. Much of what Harris claimed was factually incorrect. But he got away with it.

Much is made of the fact that FG made large gains. This was inevitable because the real level of support for FG is in the 50 to 55 seat zone. The 2002 result for FG was a freak. FG mainly won back seats that it had lost through destroying the PDs. The FG surge was not at the expense of Labour.

Labour has had major competition on the Left from the Greens Sinn Fein and the Socialist Party. This has served to depress its vote. Now that the Greens have vacated the opposition benches there is potential for FG and Labour to mop up the large number of disaffected Green votes.

Organisationally Labour has been weak in key constituencies.This has cost the party dearly.

Tommy Broughan was a critic of the Mullingar Accord. He seems to forget that Labour adopted a go it alone strategy in 2002. Where were the large seat gains?

It is probable that FG and Labour will make gains in the 2012 General Election. Notwithstanding the economic boom and SSIA money FF had a close call. Economic circumstances in 2012 are unlikely to be as favourable for the outgoing government.

Tommy Broughan should have the courage of his convictions and put his name forward in the leadership election.