Wednesday, January 9, 2008

Clinton pips Obama in New Hampshire Primary-subtle negative campaigning works

Hillary Clinton’s machine worked tirelessly to get the vote out. She won the support of the majority of female voters and very strongly targeted the pro-abortion vote. Her subtle negative campaigning in recent days ably assisted by Bill Clinton sewed doubts in the minds of uncommitted Democrats. The cry-baby episode won her a sympathy vote from females. The Clintons fought like scalded cats.
There is some evidence that the Obama campaign had become complacent and assumed that victory was assured. There was residual resistance among some white Democrats to the idea of an African American president. Obama has failed to fully clarify his ideas on change.

Obama will probably defeat Clinton in South Carolina. The race for the Democratic nomination is wide open. Many of John Edwards’s supporters may now desert their favourite. The destination of their support will be important in determining the outcome. African American voters will also play a key role as will Latinos. The majority of Latinos will probably support Clinton.

Clinton has a slight advantage.

No comments: