Saturday, April 5, 2008

New Red C/Sunday Business Post Poll shows bounce for FF but comes with health warning

A new Sunday Business Post/Red C poll carried out last Thursday shows a 5% rise in support for FF when compared with the previous weeks Red C poll. However it comes with a large health warning.

On Bertie Ahern's resignation the media provided uniformly positive coverage for Brian Cowen. There was coverage of Brian Cowen the family man, Brian Cowen the singer, Brian Cowen the sportsman, Brian Cowen the political heavy weight. Opposition parties were deprived of the oxygen of publicity.
In addition only 500 people were sampled so there is a larger margin of error than for the previous weeks poll. Assuming the total sample is 500, and made up of equal numbers of men and women, the margin of error for each gender could be as high as 6%.

It is likely that Cowen and FF will have a honeymoon period. However it may not last long. Economic storm clouds are gathering. The Live Register has risen by 30,000 since December 2007. New house completions will drop to c45,000 in 2008. The country is heading for an Exchequer Deficit of €6 billion.

  • The State of the Parties is as follows:

  • FF 40% (+5%)

  • FG 28% (-2%)

  • Labour 11%(No Change)

  • Greens 9% (+1%)

  • Sinn Fein 6% (-3%)

  • PD 1% (No Change)

  • Others 5% (-2%)

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