Sunday, April 27, 2008

Latest Sunday Business Post/Red C poll shows FF down 4% on 2007 General Election.

Since the March Poll another was taken in early April in the immediate aftermath of the resignation of Bertie Ahern. The latest figures must be judged against the poll taken in the first week of April.
The following is the outcome of the latest poll taken from Monday 21st April-Wednesday 23rd April. In brackets are the percentage changes since the early April poll.

  • FF 38% (-2%)

  • FG 29% (+1%)

  • Labour 10% (NC)

  • Greens 8% (NC)

  • Sinn Fein 7% (-2%)

  • PD 2% (+1%)

FF support is down 4% on the 07 General Election. Meanwhile the Government is faced with 5% inflation, a 30,000 rise in unemployment in the last three months, a shambolic health service, a likely deficit of €5/6 billion and an increasingly disaffected rural electorate disenchanted with the WTO. Harsh decisions will undoubtedly erode Government support further.

FG at 29% is up 2% on the 2007 General Election. With economic storm clouds gathering FG must aim to drive its support up to 35% to ensure that it will participate in the next Government.

Labour has remained static having secured 10.1% in the 07 General Election. Sinn Fein has undoubtedly eaten into the potential Labour support base.

The Greens at 8% are up 3.3% on their General Election result and are in all probability a temporary abode for dissatisfied FF voters. If we add 3.3% to the FF poll result of 38% we are quite close to the FF General Election outcome of 41.6%

Sinn Fein is static having secured 6.9% of the vote in 2007 General Election.
Sinn Fein appears in recent years to be a refuge for disaffected FF voters who return home in a General Election situation. In previous Sunday Business Post/Red C polls Sinn Fein trended higher when FF dipped to the mid 30’s.

The PDs at 2% are down 0.7% on their 07 election result.

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