Hillary Clinton’s victories in the Ohio and Texas primaries have severely dented Obama’s prospects of securing the Democratic nomination.
Critically for Obama, Clinton won two thirds of the Hispanic vote in Texas. Hispanics made up approximately one third of the Texas Democratic primary electorate. She also won the support of the majority of women and poor voters. Elderly voters backed Clinton strongly.
Men favoured Obama. He also scored strongly among African American voters and young voters.
Because of Clinton’s powerful links with Hispanic voters it was always likely that she would win Texas. Clinton's negative campaigning in recent days on the stump and expertly targeted TV ads damaged Obama by homing in on his lack of experience. In addition there is evidence that Republicans voted in sizeable numbers for Clinton in the belief that she is the weaker of the two.
Reports on statements allegedly made by Obama’s senior economic Austan Goolsbee to Canadian officials- that the Illinois senator's tough talk on NAFTA was just political rhetoric- cost Obama dearly in Ohio. The Clinton campaign took full advantage of the faux pas. Of course it was Bill Clinton who signed NAFTA in 1993 and spoke glowingly about the prospects of developing trade between the US Mexico and Canada. In 1994 he signed the global trade agreement that created the WTO. This has damaged manufacturing in the US and was manna from heaven for the Chinese. Hillary Clinton certainly did not speak out against NAFTA in 1993. She is now cynically manipulating the voters of Ohio and the US as a whole. Of course jobs have been lost in Ohio and throughout the country because of NAFTA. However labour costs, increased mechanisation and competition from China are other major causative factors. Union leaders in the US who seriously believe that Clinton will row back on Free Trade agreements, are whistling a past the dark.
Clinton won Ohio by 54-44 and Texas by 51-47. She has also overtaken Obama in some national polls. However Obama has a slight delegate lead. Obama has c1515 and Clinton has c1424. Obama leads in the popular vote. But Clinton must be favoured to win Pennsylvania. Of course Obama will win North Carolina. It may all come down to the super delegates at the convention. In addition the Michigan/Florida fiasco has not been iron out. It is highly unlikely that only 48 states will choose the Democratic Party nominee. There is now potential for a messy and bloody convention. Just imagine the headlines "Democrats at war". If Obama is deprived of the nomination by super delegates African Americans may leave the Democratic Party in droves. African Americans will have been humiliated.
Wednesday, March 5, 2008
Tuesday, March 4, 2008
Ian Paisley poacher turned gamekeeper to resign as First Minister in May
Ian Paisley has announced that he is to resign as Northern Ireland First Minister and leader of the Democratic Unionist Party in May.
He helped to establish the Free Presbyterian Church in the 1950s. In 1966 he established the Protestant Telegraph, which was used as a vehicle to attack Catholicism. As far as Paisley was concerned the Pope was the Anti-Christ.
He strongly opposed ecumenism. Nevertheless he is an enigma. Whilst he professes a hatred of Catholicism he has worked assiduously in his constituency for individual Catholics. A small number of Catholics vote for him on the basis that he has done a good turn.
He has come a long way since the late 1960s when he first came to political prominence. He bitterly opposed efforts by Terence O’Neill Prime Minister of Northern Ireland to improve relations with the South and to improve the lot of Catholics in the north. “O’Neill must go” was one of Paisley’s favourite catch -cries.
In 1971 he established the DUP
He bitterly opposed the Sunningdale Agreement signed by Taoiseach Liam Cosgrave and British Prime Minister Edward Heath. This introduced power sharing in the North. Three parties participated: Ulster Unionist Party, SDLP and Alliance. The Ulster Unionist leader Brian Faulkner was a hate figure for Paisleyites.
Paisley supported the Ulster Workers Council strike, which brought down the power-sharing executive.
He attacked the Anglo Irish Agreement (1985) signed by Taoiseach Garrett Fitzgerald and Margaret Thatcher. Peter Barry the Minister for Foreign Affairs was singled out for particular attention by Paisley. However Barry had the toughness to take on Paisley. Paisley organised monster demonstrations against the Agreement.
The Anglo Irish Agreement broke the power of Unionism as it introduced a form of joint administration of the North by the Irish and British Governments. Unionists for the first time could be bypassed.
During the course of an address by Pope John Paul II to the European Parliament in 1988, Paisley interrupted the Pope's speech by shouting and holding up placards. In the 1990s many Unionists began to realise that the Anglo Irish Agreement could only be replaced by a power sharing government.
Paisley opposed the Belfast Agreement of 1998. Nevertheless it was approved by over 70% of the voters in Northern Ireland and by over 90% of voters in the Republic of Ireland. The DUP took two seats in the multi-party power-sharing executive.
During elections in 2003 Paisley and the DUP campaigned on the need for re-negotiation of the Belfast Agreement and became the largest Unionist Party. The DUP was now entitled to the position of First Minister whilst Sinn Féin was entitled to the position of Deputy First Minister. Paisley had achieved one of his main aims. He had smashed the UUP. He continued to refuse to accept Sinn Féin in Government, and the British Government maintained the suspensions of the institutions.
Gradually the DUP and Sinn Fein began to edge closer. In the October 2006 St Andrews Agreement, Paisley and the DUP agreed to new elections, and support for a new executive which would include Sinn Féin on condition that Sinn Féin would accept the PSNI.
Later in April, Paisley met in Dublin with Taoiseach Bertie Ahern and publicly shook his hand, something Paisley had refused to do until there was peace in Northern Ireland.
On May 8th power was devolved, the Assembly met, and Paisley was elected as First Minister of Northern Ireland with Sinn Fein’s Martin McGuinness as the Deputy First Minister.
This agreement has worked reasonably well. Amazingly opposites attracted. McGuinness and Paisley struck up a good relationship. However elements in the DUP were appalled at the closeness of the relationship . Some left the party. Chief among these was Jim Allister. He contested the Dromore by-election and severely dented the DUP vote. Transfers from MEP Allister helped the UUP to take the seat.
The UUP's stunning victory in the Dromore by-election will be remembered as a St Valentine's Day massacre for the DUP. It sent shock waves through the party and hastened Paisley’s announcement to depart.
The recent resignation of Ian Paisley (Jnr) as Junior Minister in controversial circumstances further damaged Paisley(Snr) who had been coming under increasing pressure to resign.
It has been said that all political careers end in failure. Paisley the rebel for so long the bete noire of the political establishment eventually succumbed to its attractions. This was his undoing. DUP hardliners for so long nourished on a diet of political bigotry by Paisley and reminiscent of Europe in the 1600s have been unable to accept the rapprochement. Ian Paisley has mellowed and performed well as First Minister. He is talented. Perhaps he regrets some of his antics in the 1970s and 1980s, which ensured that he remained on the periphery. A younger Paisley could have achieved much more.
He helped to establish the Free Presbyterian Church in the 1950s. In 1966 he established the Protestant Telegraph, which was used as a vehicle to attack Catholicism. As far as Paisley was concerned the Pope was the Anti-Christ.
He strongly opposed ecumenism. Nevertheless he is an enigma. Whilst he professes a hatred of Catholicism he has worked assiduously in his constituency for individual Catholics. A small number of Catholics vote for him on the basis that he has done a good turn.
He has come a long way since the late 1960s when he first came to political prominence. He bitterly opposed efforts by Terence O’Neill Prime Minister of Northern Ireland to improve relations with the South and to improve the lot of Catholics in the north. “O’Neill must go” was one of Paisley’s favourite catch -cries.
In 1971 he established the DUP
He bitterly opposed the Sunningdale Agreement signed by Taoiseach Liam Cosgrave and British Prime Minister Edward Heath. This introduced power sharing in the North. Three parties participated: Ulster Unionist Party, SDLP and Alliance. The Ulster Unionist leader Brian Faulkner was a hate figure for Paisleyites.
Paisley supported the Ulster Workers Council strike, which brought down the power-sharing executive.
He attacked the Anglo Irish Agreement (1985) signed by Taoiseach Garrett Fitzgerald and Margaret Thatcher. Peter Barry the Minister for Foreign Affairs was singled out for particular attention by Paisley. However Barry had the toughness to take on Paisley. Paisley organised monster demonstrations against the Agreement.
The Anglo Irish Agreement broke the power of Unionism as it introduced a form of joint administration of the North by the Irish and British Governments. Unionists for the first time could be bypassed.
During the course of an address by Pope John Paul II to the European Parliament in 1988, Paisley interrupted the Pope's speech by shouting and holding up placards. In the 1990s many Unionists began to realise that the Anglo Irish Agreement could only be replaced by a power sharing government.
Paisley opposed the Belfast Agreement of 1998. Nevertheless it was approved by over 70% of the voters in Northern Ireland and by over 90% of voters in the Republic of Ireland. The DUP took two seats in the multi-party power-sharing executive.
During elections in 2003 Paisley and the DUP campaigned on the need for re-negotiation of the Belfast Agreement and became the largest Unionist Party. The DUP was now entitled to the position of First Minister whilst Sinn Féin was entitled to the position of Deputy First Minister. Paisley had achieved one of his main aims. He had smashed the UUP. He continued to refuse to accept Sinn Féin in Government, and the British Government maintained the suspensions of the institutions.
Gradually the DUP and Sinn Fein began to edge closer. In the October 2006 St Andrews Agreement, Paisley and the DUP agreed to new elections, and support for a new executive which would include Sinn Féin on condition that Sinn Féin would accept the PSNI.
Later in April, Paisley met in Dublin with Taoiseach Bertie Ahern and publicly shook his hand, something Paisley had refused to do until there was peace in Northern Ireland.
On May 8th power was devolved, the Assembly met, and Paisley was elected as First Minister of Northern Ireland with Sinn Fein’s Martin McGuinness as the Deputy First Minister.
This agreement has worked reasonably well. Amazingly opposites attracted. McGuinness and Paisley struck up a good relationship. However elements in the DUP were appalled at the closeness of the relationship . Some left the party. Chief among these was Jim Allister. He contested the Dromore by-election and severely dented the DUP vote. Transfers from MEP Allister helped the UUP to take the seat.
The UUP's stunning victory in the Dromore by-election will be remembered as a St Valentine's Day massacre for the DUP. It sent shock waves through the party and hastened Paisley’s announcement to depart.
The recent resignation of Ian Paisley (Jnr) as Junior Minister in controversial circumstances further damaged Paisley(Snr) who had been coming under increasing pressure to resign.
It has been said that all political careers end in failure. Paisley the rebel for so long the bete noire of the political establishment eventually succumbed to its attractions. This was his undoing. DUP hardliners for so long nourished on a diet of political bigotry by Paisley and reminiscent of Europe in the 1600s have been unable to accept the rapprochement. Ian Paisley has mellowed and performed well as First Minister. He is talented. Perhaps he regrets some of his antics in the 1970s and 1980s, which ensured that he remained on the periphery. A younger Paisley could have achieved much more.
Monday, March 3, 2008
Obama propaganda video-Hillary Clinton Mocks Barack Obama
This Obama 08 video emphasizes the mutual loathing between Clinton and Obama. Clinton comes across as shrill nasty and sarcastic. Here she commits a monumental error of judgement. Obama is much too syrupy. The Democratic campaign has become increasingly personal, as there are few policy differences between the suave Obama and the caustic Clinton. Both are left of centre politicians whose policies -if implemented -would lead to massive tax hikes.
Obama and Clinton seek change to Socialism
Essentially there is little difference in the policy platforms of Clinton and Obama. Both favour greater state involvement. Obama's promises now total $800 billion. Both Clinton's and Obama's proposals on health -if implemented-would have frightening implications for the national finances. Neither candidate has spelled out details on the funding of these extravagant promises. Only one conclusion is possible. Both intend to raise taxes- directly and by stealth. God help the middle class.
Sunday, March 2, 2008
Sparks-This Town Ain't Big Enough
"This Town Ain't Big Enough for Both of Us" was written by Ron Mael. It is the opening track on Sparks 1974 album Kimono My House. It reached number two in the UK singles chart.
Saturday, March 1, 2008
Red C poll shows little change in party strength.
A new opinion poll shows that half of those surveyed no longer trust Taoiseach Bertie Ahern to run the country after hearing his evidence to the Mahon Tribunal.
Those saying they will vote in favour of the Lisbon Treaty outnumber opponents by two to one, with 46% saying the will vote yes, 23% saying they will vote no and 31% undecided.
According to the Red C for the Sunday Business Post the state of the political parties has changed little since the last poll a month ago.
· Fianna Fáil 37% (+1%)
· Fine Gael 31% (-1%)
· Labour is at 10%
· Green Party 7%
· Sinn Féin 8% (-1%)
· PDs 2%.
· Independents and others 6% (+2%)
Looking at the 2007 General Election FF is down 4.6% whilst FG is up 3.7%. Labour is unchanged. The Greens are up 2.3%. Sinn Fein is up 1% and PDs are down 0.7%.
Statistically these changes in political party support-since the last poll- are insignificant and within the margin of error. FF appears to have halted the slide. FF politicians and media supporters have fought a strong rear guard action and have emphasized the necessity to tackle the current economic problems. This resonates with the electorate, which is Tribunal weary. In addition the increase in Green Party support is probably temporary. It is in all probability soft FF support which will return to the party in the course of any General Election campaign.
Some FG politicians have placed too great an emphasis on the Mahon Tribunal. FG has introduced a Private Members' motion on broadband in the Dail. The significance of Simon Coveney’s proposals was drowned out in a flood of political recriminations on Mahon. How many voters realise that FG has produced such a comprehensive policy? Similarly the import of the FG Private Members Motion on Autistic Children was soon obscured. An over emphasis on Mahon will not put bread and butter on the table. Voters have other priorities. Also if FG is to progress further Enda Kenny must place a greater emphasis on the economy with concise sharp questioning. In addition the opposition erred in pressurising Brian Cowen on Ahern’s travails. Why should the opposition attempt to bring the FF leadership issue to the boil. This only favours FF. Sensible oppositions allow governments to stew.
The Labour Party is hamstrung by the level of Sinn Fein support in working class areas of Dublin. Labour must attempt to take on Sinn Fein.
Those saying they will vote in favour of the Lisbon Treaty outnumber opponents by two to one, with 46% saying the will vote yes, 23% saying they will vote no and 31% undecided.
According to the Red C for the Sunday Business Post the state of the political parties has changed little since the last poll a month ago.
· Fianna Fáil 37% (+1%)
· Fine Gael 31% (-1%)
· Labour is at 10%
· Green Party 7%
· Sinn Féin 8% (-1%)
· PDs 2%.
· Independents and others 6% (+2%)
Looking at the 2007 General Election FF is down 4.6% whilst FG is up 3.7%. Labour is unchanged. The Greens are up 2.3%. Sinn Fein is up 1% and PDs are down 0.7%.
Statistically these changes in political party support-since the last poll- are insignificant and within the margin of error. FF appears to have halted the slide. FF politicians and media supporters have fought a strong rear guard action and have emphasized the necessity to tackle the current economic problems. This resonates with the electorate, which is Tribunal weary. In addition the increase in Green Party support is probably temporary. It is in all probability soft FF support which will return to the party in the course of any General Election campaign.
Some FG politicians have placed too great an emphasis on the Mahon Tribunal. FG has introduced a Private Members' motion on broadband in the Dail. The significance of Simon Coveney’s proposals was drowned out in a flood of political recriminations on Mahon. How many voters realise that FG has produced such a comprehensive policy? Similarly the import of the FG Private Members Motion on Autistic Children was soon obscured. An over emphasis on Mahon will not put bread and butter on the table. Voters have other priorities. Also if FG is to progress further Enda Kenny must place a greater emphasis on the economy with concise sharp questioning. In addition the opposition erred in pressurising Brian Cowen on Ahern’s travails. Why should the opposition attempt to bring the FF leadership issue to the boil. This only favours FF. Sensible oppositions allow governments to stew.
The Labour Party is hamstrung by the level of Sinn Fein support in working class areas of Dublin. Labour must attempt to take on Sinn Fein.
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