Ireland-Huge coup for FG as George Lee opts to contest Dublin South by-election for the party

The decision of RTEs economics editor George Lee to seek the FG nomination at the Dublin South Convention on tomorrow night is significant on many counts.

Assuming that he is selected on tomorrow night (a foregone conclusion) he will make a powerful candidate. Up to now Labour's Alex White was perceived as the front runner. However FG has a strong chance of now winning this seat as George Lee is a polished media performer. Whilst FF secured 40% of the vote in the 2007 general election, it is highly unlikely that it can hold its share of the first preference vote even with Shay Brennan as the likely candidate. Dublin South is largely a middle class constituency and is thus particularly suitable for a Lee candidature. Middle Class voters have been hammered in the budgets and a sizeable majority of middle class voters are disillusioned. Lee has never pulled his punches on the Irish economy and had continuously warned-before the housing crash- about excessive government expenditure and over reliance on the property market as a source of taxation. Consequently he starts with a formidable pedigree.

The election of George Lee would send shivers down the government benches as his forensic questioning on economic matters would put government ministers under intense pressure.

George Lee will further increase the level of economic expertise at the disposal of the FG party. Front benchers Richard Bruton, Kieran O’Donnell and Leo Varadkar are already a formidable trio on economic matters.

Lee’s decision increases the electability of the party as it can argue convincingly that it has the level of economic expertise needed to rule the country.

It further boosts morale in the run in to the European Elections and the two Dublin by-elections.

It also increases the likelihood of a further influx of talent into the party as it is on an upward curve.

No wonder Enda Kenny is smiling.

British Labour Party is blitzed in Henley by-election:What are the political implications?

• John Howell (C) 19,796 (56.95%, +3.46%)



• Stephen Kearney (Lib Dem) 9,680 (27.85%, +1.84%)



• Mark Stevenson (Green) 1,321 (3.80%, +0.54%)



• Timothy Rait (BNP) 1,243 (3.58%)



• Richard McKenzie (Lab) 1,066 (3.07%, -11.68%)



• Chris Adams (UKIP) 843 (2.43%, -0.07%)

This Henley by-election result is a further boost for David Cameron and the Conservatives. However too much should not be read into the outcome as this Oxfordshire seat, is natural Conservative territory. The Conservative candidate, John Howell, won with a majority of 10,116, a 3.46% increase on the Tory share of the vote in the 2005 General Election. Also the Tories have managed to get the Liberal Democrat monkey off their backs. Indeed many Liberal Democrat seats could fall to the rejuvenated Conservatives in the next General Election. So the Lib Dems have cause for worry also.

This is a humiliating defeat for the British Labour Party. Richard McKenzie the Labour candidate-who lost his deposit- even finished behind the extreme right British National Party and only just above UKIP. The Labour party vote is down –11.8% on the 2005 General Election.This electoral disaster for Labour comes just weeks after Mr Brown suffered heavy defeats in local elections, the London mayoral race, and the Crewe and Nantwich by-election. There is a danger for Brown that he will be perceived as a loser. However a leadership challenge is unlikely before the next General Election.

Clearly momentum is building up behind the Conservative Party. Gordon Brown has been unlucky since his accession to the leadership of the British Labour Party. His government has been hit by the international downturn, the collapse of the Northern Rock Bank, higher Government borrowing, slackening growth, higher food and oil costs. In addition he comes across as dour in marked contrast to David Cameron-the Tory leader. Also there is probably an element of English unhappiness with the fact that Brown is Scottish. This is generally not expressed publicly but is there in the background. Gordon Brown appears to lack energy and dynamism. It is as if his years as Chancellor and his obsession with securing the leadership of the Labour Party have sapped his vitality.

A Conservative victory is by no means assured in the next General Election. The party will struggle to make seat gains in Wales, Scotland and Northern England. However it is now a strong possibility.