British Labour Party is blitzed in Henley by-election:What are the political implications?

• John Howell (C) 19,796 (56.95%, +3.46%)



• Stephen Kearney (Lib Dem) 9,680 (27.85%, +1.84%)



• Mark Stevenson (Green) 1,321 (3.80%, +0.54%)



• Timothy Rait (BNP) 1,243 (3.58%)



• Richard McKenzie (Lab) 1,066 (3.07%, -11.68%)



• Chris Adams (UKIP) 843 (2.43%, -0.07%)

This Henley by-election result is a further boost for David Cameron and the Conservatives. However too much should not be read into the outcome as this Oxfordshire seat, is natural Conservative territory. The Conservative candidate, John Howell, won with a majority of 10,116, a 3.46% increase on the Tory share of the vote in the 2005 General Election. Also the Tories have managed to get the Liberal Democrat monkey off their backs. Indeed many Liberal Democrat seats could fall to the rejuvenated Conservatives in the next General Election. So the Lib Dems have cause for worry also.

This is a humiliating defeat for the British Labour Party. Richard McKenzie the Labour candidate-who lost his deposit- even finished behind the extreme right British National Party and only just above UKIP. The Labour party vote is down –11.8% on the 2005 General Election.This electoral disaster for Labour comes just weeks after Mr Brown suffered heavy defeats in local elections, the London mayoral race, and the Crewe and Nantwich by-election. There is a danger for Brown that he will be perceived as a loser. However a leadership challenge is unlikely before the next General Election.

Clearly momentum is building up behind the Conservative Party. Gordon Brown has been unlucky since his accession to the leadership of the British Labour Party. His government has been hit by the international downturn, the collapse of the Northern Rock Bank, higher Government borrowing, slackening growth, higher food and oil costs. In addition he comes across as dour in marked contrast to David Cameron-the Tory leader. Also there is probably an element of English unhappiness with the fact that Brown is Scottish. This is generally not expressed publicly but is there in the background. Gordon Brown appears to lack energy and dynamism. It is as if his years as Chancellor and his obsession with securing the leadership of the Labour Party have sapped his vitality.

A Conservative victory is by no means assured in the next General Election. The party will struggle to make seat gains in Wales, Scotland and Northern England. However it is now a strong possibility.

Rush Limbaugh and John McCain-Limbaugh is not God

I do not agree with John McCain on everything but as a war hero he deserves better from the likes of Rush Limbaugh. What is Rush Limbaugh's war record? Has he put his life on the line for the US? The man is not God. Limbaugh is not always correct. In actual fact I have yet to meet the perfect conservative.

I know conservatives were angry when McCain opposed the Bush Tax cuts. And I can understand why. However they forget that he linked his opposition to the deficit. As far as I am aware true conservatives support a balanced budget. Borrowing is deferred taxation.

Bob Dole has taken Limbaugh to task for his attacks on McCain.
Dole got more votes than Rush Limbaugh will ever get. Much of what Dole states re McCain is fundamentally sound. He supports a balanced budget. He supports a strong national security. He will appoint conservative judges. These are all good conservative issues.

Much of the debate on GOP forums has degenerated into a discussion on right wing ideological purity. I agree that a candidate must have some fundamental beliefs to guide him/her. Incidentally there are varying shades of conservatism. A broadly conservative approach is the correct one.

However 95% of the electorate has little interest in ideological purity. Such voters are concerned with the problems of day to day living-inflation, mortgages, education, health care and employment.
Voters will elect the candidate who in their opinion addresses these issues best.

The British Conservative Party tore itself asunder on ideology and has lost the last three general elections. Opposition is a lonely place. You can rave and rant all you like but you must control the levers of power to achieve your goals. Even the British Conservative Party now realises this.

If Hillary is elected President the liklihood is that she will be re-elected in four years time. The same applies to Obama.The Clintons know how to keep a grip on power.

We will have the appalling vista- A Democratic President and a Democratic Congress.
Even Conservatives who have misgivings about McCain should realise that half a loaf is better than no bread. They have some prospect of fulfilling their dreams under a McCain presidency. They have no prospects under a Clinton or Obama presidency.
To all Republicans I say unite or linger in the political wilderness for decades.
In the words of Benjamin Franklin " We must hang together, gentlemen...else, we shall most assuredly hang separately"