Ireland-Irish Times/tnsMRBI poll shows collapse in FF support

The adjusted figures for party support, compared with the last Irish Times poll in November are:

• Fianna Fáil, 22 per cent (down 5 points);
• Fine Gael, 32 per cent (down 2 points);
• Labour, 24 per cent (up 10 point);
• Sinn Féin, 8 per cent (up 1 point);
• Green Party, 4 per cent (no change);
• Independents/others, 9 per cent (down 4 points).

This is a catastrophic performance by FF. The imposition of a pension levy on public service workers is the match which lit the fuse. Large numbers of public service workers appear to have transferred their support to Labour. Dissatisfaction with the state of the economy is rife. Unemployment stood at 327,861 in January a rise of 36,498 in one month. This represents a rise of 146,412 in one year and appears to have contributed to the haemorrhage in working class support from FF. Education cuts backs allied to slashing health cuts have further fueled resentment. The botched budget of October 2008 has driven a stake into the heart of FF. In addition shocking banking revelations have infuriated the electorate. Whilst this poll was taken before the announcement of the Governments plans to recapitalise the banks, the electorate appears to have taken the inevitability of recapitalisation into account in its reactions in this poll. The decision of the government to plough taxpayers money into the banks is highly unpopular. Brian Cowen and Brian Lenihan in particular have come under sustained attack.

The Labour Party has benefited from huge exposure on RTE. Party spokesmen have been highly visible since the first week in January. In addition populist statements by the party leader Eamon Gilmore and by Joan Burton-rightly condemning huge salaries for bank executives- have struck a chord with the electorate. The party in contrast to FG has skilfully avoided outlining a plan to right the public finances. Indeed it has failed to outline any harsh measures that it would take in government. Consequently much of the Labour support is probably soft and likely to slip away if and when the party nails its colours to the higher taxation mast. If the Labour Party is to have credibility in the long term it must outline a policy platform to tackle the economic crisis.

FG whilst down 2% has managed to remain in first place and above the 30% mark. Richard Bruton and Leo Leo Varadkar in particular have performed strongly on the national media. The Party has outlined an alternative budget strategy, which includes harsh measures that it deems essential to protect the economy.

Just 14% are satisfied with the Government's performance whilst 82% are dissatisfied. The FF/Green coalition will cling to power in an effort to ride out the storm. To do otherwise would be to commit political suicide.