Ireland- Live Register breaks 200,000 for first time this decade-Unemployment rate now 5.4%

The number of people signing on the dole for unemployment rose by 47,746 in the 12 months to the end of May. This is the highest level since January 1999.

New CSO figures just issued show that when adjusted for seasonal factors, the register rose to 207,300 in May. That's up 7,600 on figures for April and over 47,000 higher than May 2007. These figures indicate a massive 30% increase in one year as Ireland dips into recession. Job losses are now spread across the whole economy, not just the housing sector.
Ireland’s unemployment rate now stands at 5.4% - a half percentage point higher than at the start of the year.

The May Exchequer Return figures show that Ireland is headed for a €3 billion shortfall in taxes - on top of an already planned-for €5 billion Government deficit this year.
There has been a €10 billion reversal in our public finances. Ireland had a €2 billion surplus in 2006. Over the last two years the Government has increased its day-to-day spending by 65%. It must attempt to curb the increase in public expenditure at a time when unemployment has breached the psychologically important 200,000 barrier. It now has the worst of all worlds. Planned cuts will be painful and will trigger a backlash.


The massive increase in public expenditure contributed to the feel good factor, which helped to propel FF to election success in 2007. It is now time for retrenchment.
The 2007 General Election was the election to lose. FG and Labour politicians will thank their lucky stars.

Irish Housing Market decline continues

Irish house prices fell by 9.2% on the year in April, compared with a 8.9% decline in March, according to the independent think tank Economic & Social Research Institute (ESRI), and Permanent TSB bank. The average price paid for a new house in April 2008 was EUR 280,981, while that paid for a second hand house was EUR 278,987. The equivalent levels in December 2007 were EUR 290,296 and EUR 284,608. The full story appears here

• The 2% rise in Euro interest rates has has taken the fizz out of the market.
• The failure to radically reform Stamp Duty is a further drag on the market.
• According to figures provided to Fine Gael by the Department of Social and Family Affairs, people under 35 now make up more than half (52.9%) of the total number of people who were added to the Live Register in the past year. The figures also show that there are now 97,071 people under the age of 35 who are on the live register, the highest figure recorded since records were fully computerised in 2003 and that the number of people in the 20 to 34 age group who are unemployed has increased by 45% in the past twelve months.



• Almost 220,000 houses and apartments are lying vacant across Ireland
  New housing starts are expected to drop to 45,000 as confidence has ebbed away. Indeed this figure may be optimistic.


• House price inflation skyrocketed in recent years. Houses have been priced out of the reach of large segments of the middle class. The salaries of teachers, guards and nurses are insufficient to purchase houses.

The correction in the market has not completed its course. There is evidence that many potential house purchasers are holding off confident in the expectation that a further sizeable reduction is in store. Indeed with EU inflation rising to 3.6% -up from 3.3% it appears unlikely that the ECB will reduce interest rates in 2008.
2008 is developing into the annus horribilis for the Irish property market.

Irish Economy-Storm clouds gather

The CSO says an extra 12,000 people signed on the Live Register in March.
This follows an increase of 8,500 in February. Since December alone the number of claimants has gone up by 30,000

The Exchequer figures reveal that after just three months, tax revenue is €600 million behind Budget day projections and €727 million down on the same time last year. The fact that nearly all taxes are significantly behind predictions (Capital Gains Tax and VAT at €311 million and €253 million respectively) suggests the downturn in the house building sector has now spread across the economy. Fine Gael Enterprise, Trade & Employment Spokesman Leo Varadkar TD has said, "In contrast to previous months, when new arrivals on the dole queue were mostly men, the 12,000 increase in March was split evenly between men and women. This confirms that the housing downturn has now spread from the male-dominated housing sector to the wider economy, discrediting Mr Cowen's assertion that what we are witnessing is simply a 'housing sector adjustment'.

House completions in 2006 were 93,419. Completions for 2007 were 78,027. Brian Cowen estimates house completions for 2008 at 55,000. However it is more likely to be closer to 45,000. Failure to tackle the Stamp Duty issue promptly damaged confidence. Also a 2% rise in interest rates helped to burst the bubble.

With inflation stubbornly high at 5%, high interest rates, rising fuel costs and falling house prices, 2008 is shaping up to be a very difficult year for the economy. According to Fine Gael the cost of Government-regulated services has risen by 45% since 2002 and accounts for one half of all non-mortgage inflation.

The Government has sought to blame external factors. This is only partially true. The Government itself opened the purse strings in 2006 and 2007 and allowed an unsustainable escalation in public expenditure. In 2007 it rose by 13%. This poured petrol on the flames and over inflated economic growth leading to a feel good factor, which enabled the Government to win the 2007 General Election. Now the Government must endeavour to reign in public expenditure at a time when the economy could benefit from a stimulus.
Gradually growth projections for the year have been revised downwards. The country could face an Exchequer deficit of over €6 billion for 2008.