Ireland:Unemployment up 16,900 in November-What are the prospects for 09?

Irish unemployment has risen by 16,900 in November. This is an increase of 106,684 in 12 months . The latest figures represent the highest monthly rise since January 1975. The seasonally adjusted figures consist of an increase of 13,600 males and an increase of 3,300 females.
The unemployment rate now stands at 7.8% .
It is important to remember that the live register also includes part-time, seasonal and casual workers who are entitled to benefit.
Unfortunately there is no relief in sight. With economies such as the US, Germany and UK in recession the prospects for Irish exporters are not good for 2009. It is likely that new house completions will only reach 20,000 next year. Consumer sentiment and confidence is at low ebb. In the short term it is unlikely that a consumer led recovery can take place.
Further depressants include record levels of credit card debt. The collapse in house and share prices has also dented confidence. A relatively strong Euro has also increased pressure on exporters. In addition the credit squeeze is unlikely to ease sufficiently to save many small businesses.
The potential for a government led reflation of the economy is non-existent. Indeed a serious deflationary spiral could easily set in.The 2009 current deficit is likely to come in at around €8 billion. Further government cut backs are necessary to bring the deficit under control. These may further exacerbate the situation.
On a positive note falling oil prices and lower EU interest rates should help.
Nevertheless it is probable that 2009 will be another annus horribilis for unemployment.

RTE report exposes timber trade between Burma and China

RTÉ News carried a special report Foreign Editor Margaret Ward on the timber trade between China and Burma. Ostensibly China banned imports of timbers from Burma. However Margaret Ward’s report proves conclusively that the trade between Burma and China continues unabated.

Ward posed as a purchaser and found that there was no difficulty in sourcing timber at the right price. The Burmese junta benefits enormously from this trade. According to the report Burmese timber is also finding its way to Korea, Japan and Europe. Kudos to Ward and the RTE team for such a penetrating report which is just one of many coming from China.

Unfortunately China consistently refuses to play by the rules in Burma, Tibet and Sudan. China has provided support for the Butchers of Rangoon on a consistent basis. This enabled the junta to crush the 2007 uprising using tactics perfected by China.

The Ward Diaries are a fountain of information on China.

On his first visit to China, British foreign secretary David Miliband rejected calls for an Olympic boycott. The Beijing Olympics provided an excellent opportunity to leverage concession from China but unfortunately the international community is prepared to overlook human rights violations by China in the interests of trade.