Saturday, September 26, 2009

Ireland:Red C Poll:Yes To Lisbon Treaty appears certain -September 26, 2009

The latest Red C opinion poll on the Lisbon Treaty Referendum shows increasing support for the Treaty with just six days to go to polling day. More than 1,000 voters around the country were surveyed by telephone on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.
55% of adults surveyed said they would vote Yes, up one point since the last poll two weeks ago.
27% said they would vote no, up two points whilst 18% are undecided.
When the undecideds are excluded, the Yes side leads by 67% to 33%.

In marked contrast to the previous referendum on the Lisbon Treaty, the yes campaign has been highly organized. It is visible on the ground and not just on media organs. The FF, FG and Labour campaigns have tapped into the necessity for Ireland to remain at the centre of Euro decision making. They have emphasized the dangers of marginalisation should the country reject the Treaty for a second time. This resonates with many voters who are reeling from the effects of unemployment and tax increases. Several of the major unions and also business organizations have come out forcibly in favour of the Treaty. The Irish Times, Independent Group and the Irish Examiner have pursued a strong pro Lisbon line. In addition the IFA and ICMSA strongly support the Treaty. In short the yes campaign has the manpower, organization and media support whilst many in a scared electorate believe that Europe can help dig Ireland out of its financial morass.

On the other hand the anti Lisbon groups such as Coir, the Socialist Party and Sinn Fein lack the financial muscle, organization and manpower to dent the yes campaign. Declan Ganley of Libertas entered the campaign too late to seriously influence the outcome. Whilst Ganley undoubtedly bested Michael O'Leary of Ryanair in the Prime Time debate last Thursday night, the no side has failed to put forward a workable alternative to Lisbon.
A scared electorate will vote for the Lisbon Treaty on the basis that Ireland NEEDS Europe

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