Ireland: Socialist Fintan O'Toole's flawed political agenda laid bare on Late Late Show

Irish Times columnist Fintan O'Toole along with Nell McCafferty and Dr John Crown- appeared on tonight's Late Late show and attacked deficiencies in the Irish political system. Present in the audience were politicians from FF, FG, Labour, Sinn Fein and Greens.

O'Toole criticized the parish pump mentality and lambasted cute hoorism. He savaged the clinic system and demanded an end to multi-seat constituencies and a fundamental realignment in party politics.
Undoubtedly he is correct in some respects but in reality he is an elitist and a theoretician. The clinic system keeps politicians in touch with the requirements of the electorate. This is something which Fintan would not understand. Ending mult-seat constituencies would be undemocratic and would skew the results of elections in a manner similar to the UK. There the Lib Dems can secure 20% of the vote and yet end up with a very low proportion of seats. O'Toole has a leftist political agenda-something which he failed to declare. He took a cheap shot at FG leader Enda Kenny. O'Toole wants a left wing government. He has contempt for an electorate which in the main votes for centre right parties. We must do Fintan's bidding apparently. Tonight Fintan hectored and lectured not alone the politicians but also the electorate.

Spain and Britain have political systems polarized on a left right basis so beloved of O'Toole. The Spanish and British economies have been run into the ground by their Socialist governments. Fintan O'Toole needs to divest himself of his Socialist dogma and go back to the drawing board. He is out of touch on many issues.

Ireland-Huge coup for FG as George Lee opts to contest Dublin South by-election for the party

The decision of RTEs economics editor George Lee to seek the FG nomination at the Dublin South Convention on tomorrow night is significant on many counts.

Assuming that he is selected on tomorrow night (a foregone conclusion) he will make a powerful candidate. Up to now Labour's Alex White was perceived as the front runner. However FG has a strong chance of now winning this seat as George Lee is a polished media performer. Whilst FF secured 40% of the vote in the 2007 general election, it is highly unlikely that it can hold its share of the first preference vote even with Shay Brennan as the likely candidate. Dublin South is largely a middle class constituency and is thus particularly suitable for a Lee candidature. Middle Class voters have been hammered in the budgets and a sizeable majority of middle class voters are disillusioned. Lee has never pulled his punches on the Irish economy and had continuously warned-before the housing crash- about excessive government expenditure and over reliance on the property market as a source of taxation. Consequently he starts with a formidable pedigree.

The election of George Lee would send shivers down the government benches as his forensic questioning on economic matters would put government ministers under intense pressure.

George Lee will further increase the level of economic expertise at the disposal of the FG party. Front benchers Richard Bruton, Kieran O’Donnell and Leo Varadkar are already a formidable trio on economic matters.

Lee’s decision increases the electability of the party as it can argue convincingly that it has the level of economic expertise needed to rule the country.

It further boosts morale in the run in to the European Elections and the two Dublin by-elections.

It also increases the likelihood of a further influx of talent into the party as it is on an upward curve.

No wonder Enda Kenny is smiling.

Ireland: Summary and Text of radical New FG FairCare Health Policy

Fine Gael’s FairCare proposals, certainly represent the most fundamental reform of the health system since the formation of the State.The policies pursued by the government have failed. Unfortunately the reaction of government Minister Barry Andrews is to say the least disappointing. The time for political point scoring is over. Adopt these policies NOW. Fix our health service NOW

Speaking at the launch of his Party’s FairCare Health proposals today (Monday), Fine Gael Leader, Enda Kenny TD said:

For the last ten years the Government’s answer to any problem in the health service was to throw taxpayers’ money at it. Billions were wasted and the health service was never reformed in any fundamental way. As a result, Ireland’s health system is now ranked 24th in Europe in terms of value for money. Even today, as we face the worst economic crisis in this State’s history, the Government is slashing health budgets without introducing any meaningful reform. In mid 2008 I established a Health Commission chaired by our former leader Alan Dukes, to develop a radical and patient focused solution that will give us the Health Service that we deserve within a five year time frame. Our approach is built around the patient, rewarding performance from doctors and hospitals, and ensuring that there will no longer be a two tier health system.

Fine Gael has looked in particular detail at the Dutch health system as a model for Ireland’s health service. The Netherlands spends only slightly more than us on health on a per capita basis, but has minimal waiting lists and is ranked number 1 in Europe for health. Under Fine Gael’s proposals, we will move towards the Dutch system, where everyone has mandatory health insurance, either subsidised or fully financed by the State. In its first 30 days in Government, Fine Gael will work with all the major stakeholders in the health service to agree an implementation plan so that the proven Dutch system of UHI is best adapted to Irish circumstances. Our health reform programme represents the most revolutionary change in the Irish health system since its establishment.
There will be some who will say that we cannot afford major reforms at a time of recession. To them I say: as budgets come under more pressure we can't afford not to reform our €16 billion a year health system.

A summary of the proposals is available here

Full Text of proposals here

Ireland: Video and Text of Enda Kenny keynote address to FG Ard-Fheis-4/4/09

Video requires RealPlayer-Download here

Embedded from RTE.IE

Keynote Address By Fine Gael Leader, Enda Kenny TD, Ard Fheis 2009.

I come here tonight to speak to you about the challenges facing the country and about my plan to get Ireland working again.

I want to speak to you about my optimism for our people, about my confidence in the advantages we have and about my belief that with courage, fairness and decisiveness, we can point the way ahead to a new future, a fairer Ireland and a truly just society.

This current crisis presents us with enormous challenges, but massive opportunities.

I believe that Ireland can recover fully from this recession inside five years.
This mission can only be achieved if we choose the right options, make the tough but correct decisions, and act decisively and act now.

We must act for the benefit of everybody in this country and not pander to any powerful vested interest. Be assured that under my leadership, Fine Gael will step up to the mark. We have the people, the ideas and the ambition. We will accept the responsibility of leading this country to a strong and prosperous future.

It's time for a new Fine Gael Government to take Ireland in a new direction.

Fianna Fáil could have, and should have, anticipated the economic crisis. While I recognise that global factors are partly to blame for the downturn, the reality is that mismanagement by our own Government has meant that Ireland is suffering much more than other countries.

Make no mistake about this - Fianna Fáil are responsible for the state of our domestic woes.

When our economy was strong, they squandered your money on wasteful projects, like e-voting machines, rather than investing in improving vital public services like schools and healthcare.

Thankfully, their days in Government are numbered.

Fine Gael's alternative involves radical reform to eliminate wasteful spending and reduce bureaucracy.

Let me be straight - no country has ever taxed its way back to recovery.

The problem with the public finances cannot be fixed by tax increases and crude spending cuts alone. As more and more people lose their jobs, the hole in the public finances gets bigger and bigger. The cornerstone of Fine Gael's plan for economic renewal is the creation and protection of jobs for our people.

That will be our number one priority in government.

As I travel around the country listening to people, the single greatest issue that concerns them and that causes real anxiety is the safety of their jobs, the possibility of losing a job and the need for a plan to move our country forward.

Losing a job doesn't bring just financial hardship. Our sense of identity, dignity, self-worth and independence is bound up in our work. It gives our lives a purpose, without which it is all too easy to slip into feelings of helplessness and hopelessness.

The shock of losing all that has now registered on the faces of over 375,000 people in this small country. That's why Fine Gael has continuously pointed the way forward and why we have placed job protection and job creation at the heart of our recovery plans. This country has drifted aimlessly in the past few years from one crisis to another with no vision of where to go or what to do.
It was always too little, too late.

Fine Gael has set the agenda all along. We were right on benchmarking, we were right on the scrapping of the National Pay Deal, we were right on Bank recapitalisation and on the need for a new Budget.

And we're right to focus on jobs now.

I believe that we can meet the challenge ahead and revive our country by setting out clear targets and then achieving them with determination. These are our targets:
1. Create 100,000 new jobs by the end of 2013.

2. Return the public finances to health by 2012 - without increasing the standard and current top rates of income tax.

3. Deliver a radical plan for renewable energy - pumped storage, wind, wave and biomass, that will meet a quarter of our energy needs by 2015, and make us net exporters of energy within 10 years.

4. Transform our education system so that 9 out of 10 children complete secondary school by 2013 and two thirds go onto third level.

5. Restore Ireland to the top 5 most competitive countries in the world within 3 years.

These targets are all achievable if driven by a new Fine Gael Government with new ideas and the energy and the commitment to do the job.

Our young people now have to compete against their peers around the world.

That world will change utterly in the next 20 years as a consequence of further developments in robotics, nanotechnology, genetics, the internet and climate change. We have to be at the vanguard of that change and education is the key.

Our young people have many advantages. Our education system can be and should be the best in the world. We have proven to be world class in music, literature, the arts and sport. We have a unique capacity in language and research.
But to meet the future challenges, we need more.

We need free access to 3rd level Colleges.

Fine Gael will not deny any family the opportunity to send a son or daughter to college because of financial pressures.

The gates to dreams and potential will remain open. We will not support the reintroduction of 3rd level fees and will abolish the current registration fee system.

Instead, when they start to work and earn, graduates will make a fair contribution to the cost of their course over a 5 to 10 year period.

This will provide a new €500 million annual fund for which 3rd level Colleges will compete - based on the quality of the courses that they offer and the scale of their reform.

A country that does not provide excellence in education is a country that fails its future: Fine Gael will not allow this country to fail its future.

That future for many is stressful and uncertain. Last week I met a couple whose child has special needs. They have mortgaged their home twice. Nobody knows a child better than its mother. This is what the child's mother said to me:

'We've always paid our taxes, and yet we've had to fight the State every day of our child's life to get any kind of services. We've a personal overdraft for which we're being charged 20% interest by a bank being bailed out by our taxes. Do you understand how angry I am when I read of people receiving millions of Euro despite disgraceful behaviour within banks?'

Well I understand that anger. I meet people like that mother every week.

Victims of appalling and scandalous State neglect and banking greed.

That's why Fine Gael demands a radical shake-up of Irish banking that will see new people leading the banks and those responsible for outrageous abuses severely punished.

The message has to go out, both at home and abroad, that these practices will not be tolerated by the Irish people.

Fine Gael will extract and deal with the tainted remnants of irresponsible lending so that reformed, clean banks can start lending again to the small and medium Irish businesses that are so essential to the creation of jobs.

Last week, I met a small retailer in Kildare who, because she was refused a loan of just €3,000 for cashflow, is now forced to lay off staff. Countless other businesses are similarly starved of credit.

The banks must play their part in supporting employment because, if they don't, the economy will continue to decline.

That decline can only be reversed by job creation. This is why Fine Gael published our jobs plan - Rebuilding Ireland.

This plan, which will create 100,000 jobs within 4 years, will be an investment in the future and will be paid back in time.

Across the Country, these new initiatives driven by me as Taoiseach, will provide jobs for young people, engineers, scientists, farmers, business people - men and women - in a unique venture to put Ireland up there with the very best internationally.

The Fine Gael plan is not about jobs for the boys, but jobs for the people.

These plans are just the start. There are many other areas where jobs can be created.

I intend to establish a policy foundation to harness the flow of exciting ideas streaming into this party from people all over the world. We will capitalise on the infinite possibilities that stem from new technologies and clean bank investment for businesses across Europe.

To help stimulate new jobs, Fine Gael will abolish Employer's PRSI for every new job created.

Along with creating these new jobs, we must also work to retain existing jobs.

That's why last week we proposed reducing the lower rate of VAT to 10% - a move that will support labour intensive sectors like Tourism and Construction.

That's why we will slash the red tape and bureaucracy that is strangling Irish Business.

That's why we will force down Government controlled prices like energy and rates.

Then we can face the future, not with eyes of fear but with a focus on confidently achieving our goals.

Because we know we can do it.

These incentives however come at a price. Achieving national recovery requires difficult decisions on tax and spending.

That is why politicians must lead by example. Fine Gael has taken the lead in demanding political reform that will see an end to ministerial Pensions for serving TDs; a reduction in the number of Dail committees and the abolition of additional payments for Committee work.

One of my first acts as Taoiseach will be to reduce the number of Junior Ministers from 20 down to 12.

We don't need 20 Junior Ministers - and the Country can't afford them.

Equally the Country cannot afford the billions wasted in a Health System that was never reformed in any fundamental way. My message tonight is simple.

Despite the best efforts of nurses and doctors and all those working on the front-line, our health system is broken.

And this Government has no idea how to fix it.

The health service needs radical change. Fine Gael will deliver that change. We will deliver a health system that is concerned solely with people's medical needs, and not with the money in their pocket.

We will end the two-tier system.

We have devised a plan based on best practice in the Netherlands and Canada. It will eliminate trolleys in A&E, slash waiting lists and end the current health divide that denies fair treatment to the less well-off in our society.

Our goal is clear: To give Ireland a world-class health service where everyone is treated fairly, regardless of income, and where the patient is central to that service.

Fine Gael will make sure that the people of Ireland get the services that they pay for and deserve.

Whatever decisions have to be made next Tuesday in these difficult times, they must not destroy the spirit of communities and the voluntary care provided for
the voiceless, the defenceless, the aged and the intellectually challenged.

I see examples of this wonderful care every day, all over Ireland - 3 million hours of loving care provided every week by people who receive no thanks and little support from the State.

No bureaucrat sitting with a pen should destroy that generosity of spirit of Irish people.

No calculator can place a value on this. The government that has destroyed our economy cannot be allowed to destroy our humanity.

No Government led by me will allow it to happen and irrespective of
what else has to give, this will not.

Chuir sé isteach orm go mor gur dunmharu triur sa Tuaisceart le deanai. Ar mo mholadh fein, ghlac Dáil Eireann le rún comhbhron agus bhí tacaiocht o chuile pháirti i gcoinne an feall sin. Chuir an Dáil amach teachtaireacht laidir don Teach Bán, do mhuntir na hEorpa agus don domhain ar fad nach glacann munitir na hEireann, Tuaisceart agus Deisceart, leis an eacht ufasach sin. Caithfear deireadh a chur le seo laithreach. D'oibrigh an iomairce daoine ro dian and ro fhada chun go ligfear go dtosnodh an troid sin arís. Leanfaimid ar aghaidh le siochain seasamach as seo amach.

It was out of the need for peace that the European Union was born.

Europe has been vital to Ireland's development as a respected and influential member of the international community.

I want a reformed, effective, and democratic Europe to be a key driver of economic recovery and future prosperity. This Europe must be given the architecture to serve a population of 500m people.

That's why Fine Gael has and will continue to support the reforms in the Lisbon Treaty and we will lead the campaign for its approval by the Irish people later in the year.

In the meantime, the people will vote June 5th to elect Ireland's members of the European Parliament. It is more important than ever that we elect strong and effective MEPs. Fine Gael's membership of the largest political family, the European People's Party, gives our MEPs a unique place of influence when the important decisions are taken.

That's why I urge people to vote for Gay Mitchell in Dublin; for Colm Burke and Sean Kelly in the South; for Mairead McGuinness and John Paul Phelan in the East and for Jim Higgins and Joe O'Reilly in the North West. In doing so, you will be choosing Ireland's strongest voices in Europe.

No other nation has ever been as willing to sacrifice for a better future than the Irish. We moved from being navvies to being nation builders. We benefited from thousands of mothers and fathers who scrimped and saved so that their children could continue to build our country.

I make no pretence and no promise that we can instantly fix the problems we inherit.

But I do promise that we will free the potential that, at the start of the last century, enabled our people to come through oppression and recession to build a great democracy.

"Let the people know the truth and the country is safe" said Lincoln. Well, I will tell them the truth. The Country will be safe.

We will revive the excitement and sense of possibility that allowed our people, in the 1980s, to come through the hardest of times to build an economy which was the envy of the world.

As the proud father of three young children my priority is securing the future of all of our children.

But to achieve this, we need courageous, confident, clear leadership from a Fine Gael Government that truly cares.

Fianna Fail have lost the capacity to lead, and more importantly, they have lost touch with the people and the people have lost trust in them. And they know it.

When I took on the leadership of Fine Gael, the scale of the challenge was huge. Many said that the situation was hopeless, but I've worked hard, built solid foundations, picked a strong team and encouraged their creativity so that we could recover and grow. And we have.

Now I want to do the same for Ireland.

Fine Gael is the party with the team, the energy and the ideas to get the Irish people back to work. And we are the only party that guarantees the political change this country so desperately needs.

Last year, across the Atlantic Ocean, a young man began to live and achieve his dreams for his country.

The simplicity of his slogan 'Yes we can', captured the imagination of the world.

Let nobody doubt my resolve as Leader of this great Party to achieve my ambition for our country. A fair and just society, a strong and healthy economy and a rewarding and peaceful future for all.

My call to the Irish people is different. It's not just 'Yes we can', but 'Yes we will'.

Ireland: FG €11bn/100,000 Jobs Stimulus Plan announced by Enda Kenny

FG Plan will Transform Irish Economy for next Thirty Years

Enda Kenny today unveiled his Party's plan (Rebuilding Ireland) to generate an €11bn stimulus plan to kick start the Irish economy and generate 100,000 jobs over the next four years. The plan involves the creation of a new industrial development holding company, NewERA (New Economy and Recovery Authority) that will be responsible for delivering a targeted series of large scale investments in green energy power generation, telecoms and broadband roll-out and an upgrading of all our water distribution and treatment networks. The ambition of the Party is to turn Ireland in to the most competitive and sustainable economy in Europe. The plan was brought to the Fine Gael Front Bench this week by the Party Spokesman on Energy and Communications, Simon Coveney T.D. The FULL TEXT may be downloaded here

This policy document is a worthy contribution to the debate on the future direction of Irish economic policy. It is well researched and is brimful of original and radical proposals, which have the potential to radically transform the Irish economy and drive future economic growth. The FG party and Simon Coveney in particular deserve our gratitude. FG in recent months has published a raft of well-researched policy documents. No opposition party in Irish political history has brought policy development to such levels.

Commenting on the plan today, Enda Kenny said;
"Fine Gael has a plan to get this country back to work. More than that, Fine Gael has a plan for our economy that will help make us the most competitive and sustainable economy in Europe. We have long recognised that the Fianna Fail model of selling property to ourselves was not a viable long term strategy for the Irish economy. That is why we have consistently driven the need to return to the basics that made our economy strong in the first place. That means getting costs down, regaining competitiveness and producing things that international consumers want to buy. This plan today sets out a roadmap that will get 100,000 people back to work in the next four years, but in the process, will position our economy as a world leader in green energy, make us energy self sufficient and a net energy exporter by 2020 and turn us in to a genuine hi-tech base for Irish and overseas investors.

"The creation of the NewERA holding company to drive industrial development in key strategic areas allows that entity to borrow monies from the EIB (European Investment Bank) and issue bonds that do not affect our national debt calculations. That is because, as a commercial semi state, the NewERA investments would be treated as financial investments seeking a commercial rate of return. By moving existing NDP investments and new additional investments "off the balance sheet" in this way our strategy also helps with the parallel objective of cutting exchequer borrowing.

"The additional €11bn in investments funds that NewERA will manage, on top of the outstanding €7bn worth of NDP projects in the relevant areas, will be funded from a combination of sources. These include the draw down of National Pension Reserve Fund monies, additional forms of borrowing by NewERA and the sale of existing state assets that it is judged no longer serve the strategic goals of the NewERA initiative. These sales will only take place when market conditions are favourable and will have to be approved by Government and the Oireachtas. The funds raised by these asset sell offs can then be used to replenish the NPRF and will, in effect, result in the swapping of old state assets for new state assets in the form of new green energy and broadband infrastructure."

Commenting on the report, its principal author, Simon Coveney said;
"As a people we can begin the fight back against the recession with this stimulus package. At the core of Fine Gael's vision for Rebuilding Ireland and cutting unemployment is our proposal for €11 billion in new investments in the cutting edge technologies and network infrastructures - energy, transport, communications and water - needed to reposition Ireland as the most competitive and sustainable economy in Europe.
"Supported by these investments, Ireland can drag its economy out of recession by:
- Unclogging the key arteries - like energy, transport, broadband and water - that have so damaged our competitiveness in recent years and held back private sector investment in Ireland;
- Becoming a world leader in green energy technologies;
- Giving tens of thousands of homes, businesses and farms a role to play in protecting the environment, and an opportunity to generate extra incomes, by selling their own renewable energy into the electricity grid;
- Starting to power our cars with domestically produced renewable energy, rather than spending billions on foreign fossil fuel imports; and
- Eliminating the "digital divide" and giving every child, home and business the same access to the education, entertainment, health and information services that will be delivered over "next generation" broadband telecoms networks.

"The ownership of a wide range of existing and new state companies involved in energy, transport and communications will be vested in NewERA. Among the existing state companies that will be moved under NewERA will be the ESB, Eirgrid, An Post, Bord Gais, Bord na Mona, Coillte and the Metropolitan Area Networks (MANS). The new commercial state companies will include;
Smart Grid (ESB Networks restructured and split off from the ESB Group) that will invest an additional €3.3 billion (over and above existing investment plans) between 2010 and 2013 to develop a 21st century "smart grid"Broadband 21, to invest an additional €2.5 billion in amalgamating and building out the diverse telecom assets of existing state companies,BioEnergy Ireland will merge together Bord na Mona, Coillte and the National Council for Forest Research and Development (COFORD), to invest €800 million in 2010-13 to become a global leader in the commercialisation of next generation bio-energy technologiesRenewable Energy Ireland which will invest in early stage green energy companies and applied renewable energy research, with a particular focus on technologies that can be licensed.Irish Water will take overall responsibility for providing safe clean drinking water and treating waste water through an expanded water infrastructure investment programme.Greener Home Bank will help tens of thousands of home owners across the country upgrade their homes to challenging new energy and waste water standards.

"The new jobs will be spread evenly between regions and skill levels, and will include thousands of jobs in the following areas:
- Telecoms, civil and structural engineering- Plant maintenance and operation- Scientific researchers- Insulation and home energy appliances- Plumbing, electrical work and other construction crafts- Software programming and support- Forest maintenance and timber processing- Digital content production for health, education and Government services

Deputy Coveney continued;
"By stimulating new investment and job creation in the economy, and by moving some NDP investments out of the exchequer and into "NewERA" commercial state bodies, NewERA investments will also cut the Government borrowing requirement by just over €4 billion by 2013.
"If Fine Gael were in Government tomorrow we would begin preparations straight away so that the NewERA investment and stimulus programme could proceed in 2010.
"Among the actions by Government now needed to make this happen are:
1. New legislation establishing by May the New Economy and Recovery Authority (NewERA) as an independent state company, and allowing the Government to vest ownership of commercial State companies into NewERA;
2. The appointment of a board of directors by June and a management team by September.
3. A further amendment to the National Pension Reserve Fund Act 2000 by May further extending the Government's powers to direct the €9.2 investment by the NPRF Commission into NewERA over the period 2010-13.
4. Government recapitalisation of the EBS by June, making it a state-sponsored mutual building society, with a new board of directors appointed by Government.
5. The establishment of ESB Networks as a stand-alone company, separate from the rest of the ESB Group, and re-branded as "Smart Grid".
6. New legislation by the Autumn establishing Irish Water and transferring the responsibilities for maintaining and upgrading our water infrastructure from local authorities to the new State company.

"Fine Gael has a plan to get our economy back on the right track. We can become a world leader in key industries and create a thriving and, importantly, a sustainable economy. The smart decisions have to be taken now though so that we avert a further slippage down the competitiveness, jobs and IT league tables of the world."

Enda Kenny urges Euro leaders to explore EU 'Bad Bank' option and boost business lending

'Nothing less than the credibility of our shared currency and survival of Economic and Monetary Union is at stake'

Speaking at the meeting of the Bureau of the European People's Party in Brussels, Fine Gael Leader Enda Kenny TD said 2009 will be a defining year for the EU. Proposals being put forward by Deputy Kenny include the creation of an EU 'bad bank' and increased European Investment Bank lending to businesses.

"In the face of the greatest economic crisis faced by the Union since its establishment over five decades ago, will we stand together? Or will each Member State prioritise its own short-term national interests, and try to remedy its own economic problems in a way that worsens the problems of others, and thereby expose smaller and weaker Members to the whims of financial speculators?

"It is true that some individual Member States, such as Ireland, have mismanaged their domestic economic affairs by encouraging unsustainable debt-fuelled booms. Clearly, Ireland and other countries need to put their own houses in order. But now is not the time for mutual recrimination among Member States. Nothing less than the credibility of our shared currency and survival of Economic and Monetary Union is at stake. It is in all of our interests to make sure that no country has to leave the eurozone.

"This is why I am working with my fellow leaders in the European People's Party to articulate a clear statement of solidarity among EU members, and to set out ideas that should be considered by the EU Heads of Government when they meet in March for an orderly working out of the vulnerabilities and imbalances that threaten the EU's economic achievements over the last generation.

"Options I would like the EU Heads of Government to explore are:
- The establishment of an EU Bank Resolution Corporation, or 'bad bank', to help accelerate the restoration to health of European banks, without which economic recovery will not happen. In the United States in the 1980s after the Savings & Loan scandal, a similar approach was adopted.- A significant expansion of the level of resources available to the European Investment Bank to support lending to European businesses, and in particular to small and medium-sized enterprises;- Removing restrictions on the European Central Bank to pursue the types of anti-deflationary policies now being pursued by the Bank of England and the US Federal Reserve;- Commitments to avoid 'beggar-thy-neighbour' exchange rate adjustments that export unemployment and deflation from one EU country to another."(Fine Gael)

Speech by Fine Gael Leader Enda Kenny TD at the Party's 2008 National Conference in Wexford, on Saturday 22nd November 2008

"Tonight I want to talk to you about why Ireland now needs new leadership to take the country in a new direction. We meet at the best of times and at the worst of times.
Best of times for Fine Gael because we know what we stand for and we know where we're going. But worst of times because out there, joining us in their sitting rooms and their kitchens, are people who can't share the buzz and the excitement that are making the rafters of this place vibrate.

People watching us against a background of misery and fear. Yes. Misery. And fear.
Because that's what happens, when you've got a good degree, when you've had a good job, when you've given your all - and suddenly, through no fault of your own, you're let go. When you become one of the first highly educated generation in Irish history to be "Let go."
- Let go before Christmas.- Let go when the mortgage you're paying is bigger than the value of the house it covers.- Let go when the jobs market is awash with good, talented, experienced people all fighting for fewer and fewer posts.
Spun loose and lost, they are, the first young casualties of the downturn. Spun loose and lost. And fearful. That's the worst of it. That's the most damning indictment of the current Government. They have done what no Government should ever do. They have created a fear of the future in the people of this country.

Older people, who see promises made to them tossed in the air like ash blowing in a wind. Who see a Government that treats them like statistics and ignores human reality. Not just older people, though. This fear is all-pervasive.
Younger people are seeing their bosses cutting jobs. Pulling back. Circling the wagons. Sending the message: Postpone your ambitions. Put your life on hold. And you know something? You can't do that. You can't put lives on hold. Ambition and promise, unexpressed, wither into frustration and bitter disappointment.

While the Government blame international factors, the reality is that we are suffering a far more severe downturn than other countries. This is a direct result of the Government's failure to plan for the future - a direct result of weak and indecisive leadership and a direct result of a government in office too long and too out of touch.Fianna Fáil has governed deliberately in the interests of their friends, particularly property speculators, rather than in the best interests of the Irish people. The result was an unsustainable property bubble, the victims of which are the many thousands of young couples who are now paying huge mortgages on over-priced homes, living with the anxiety of failing jobs and negative equity.
If we don't act now to arrest the slide in good governance and economic management, the situation will just get worse. And worse. And worse.

Unemployment will continue upwards. Our borrowings will continue upwards. The quality of our front line public services will continue downwards. It's time for someone to stand out front and tell the painful truth.
The country cannot afford the national pay deal. It is as simple as that. This deal must be suspended for 12 months and reviewed after that. It was negotiated in a different context with different expectations.
I am calling on Government and public service unions to implement a complete pay freeze for 12 months.
I am calling on private sector employers and their staff to review the terms of the wage agreement and ensure that no pay increases are at the expense of jobs. Wage restraint in the short term is preferable to job losses in the long term.
If we want to be masters of our own destiny, we have to control our spending and ensure that we regain our competitiveness. Let's be clear on this: if we manage our finances prudently there should be no need for damaging tax increases that undermine our future growth.

The money saved by this initiative should be invested directly in key infrastructures like school buildings and public transport, and in retraining and upskilling our workforce. The time to start fixing the economic mess created by Fianna Fail and Brian Cowen, is now. We simply must get the country back on track.
Nowhere is this more urgent than in the horror that is our health system. Was there ever a greater betrayal than a Cabinet sitting down and deliberately targeting our elderly people to pay for their own mistakes by removing their medical cards?
Year after year, they refused to address the horrors of our healthcare system. Remember that Yeats ballad, where the old priest Peter Gilligan "is weary, night and day, for half his flock were in their beds or under greensod lay." "I have no rest, nor joy, nor peace," he cries out. "For people die and die." This Government deserves no rest, nor joy, nor peace. For people die needlessly on their watch.

And - when it comes to misdiagnosis - so many of those people are women. Women in the prime of their lives, leaving children and families to grieve in baffled disbelief. Is it too much to ask - as we asked long before the economic downturn - is it too much to ask that Ireland treat its women with respect? Is it? No it's not.
Is it too much to ask that when we take our parents to a hospital, that they are not endangered by hospital bugs or misdiagnosis? Is it?
Is it too much to ask that vaccinations are not withheld from our twelve year old daughters so that their very lives are threatened? Is it?
Is it too much to ask that a stale, arrogant, contemptuous Government be swept out of office and urgently replaced by a Fine Gael government of passion, professionalism, experience and enthusiasm? Is it?

When this Government is replaced by Fine Gael, we will deliver the universal healthcare plan being finalised by the Policy Commission chaired by Alan Dukes. We will create the change, the old, the young and the sick need so badly; a change to a health system where the patient is at the centre and the money follows that patient. A health system where service is delivered because you need it, not because you can pay for it. Fine Gael will drive that change in approach and ensure that fairness is at the core of Irish society.
We will banish the notion that Education is a cost. It is not. It is a need. It is an investment in our nation's future and an investment in our children's future. As Churchill said "the empires of the future will be the empires of the mind". Fine Gael will invest now to build those empires.
We will stop waste, and return to the basics that made this economy a success; low-costs, high exports, targeted spending, and a constant focus on competitiveness.
A focus on competitiveness that will make Ireland the best. That will make Ireland a global leader, and that inside a decade, will make this country a net exporter of energy. Within ten years, we will sell more energy than we buy in.

Tax relief on bicycles and banning light bulbs won't build the Green Economy. Our approach must be based on innovation and creativity. It will draw investment from around the world. Give farming a new lease of life.Renew and refresh our tourism offering. It will radically change and strengthen our industrial base.
That requires investment in wave, wind, biofuels, pumped storage and gas. An investment that will pay dividends and create jobs. An investment that requires radical change. That radical change that will see government acting to prevent problems. A government with the courage to act. And act Fast. And act fast we would have done to prevent the meltdown of the banking system.


Fine Gael would not be paralysed by this current banking crisis. We would re-capitalise banks. Now.
It's too late to give a transfusion when the patient is already dead. Too many jobs in small businesses all over this country are threatened by the lack of access to credit. My fear is that bad banks and delinquent developers are having too much say in guiding Government policy in this area. The recipe drawn up by Government appears to rely on international venture capitalists. What interest do they have in the long term viability of our economy? None.
So why are we inviting venture capitalists to do a job that we can handle ourselves? The Government should take preference shares in Irish banks so the taxpayer gets a dividend from the investment, not foreign investors. Once that's done, they must be told that neither they, nor their regulators, will walk away unscathed from this. Our nation has been damaged by their reckless behaviour. They must be held accountable. Under Fine Gael, they will be held accountable.

We are the only party who will hold people to account for failure. Who will hold people to account for irresponsibility. Who will hold people to account for criminality.
Not so long ago, we were told gangland killings were the last sting of a dying wasp. That dying wasp is very much alive and part of a threatening swarm infesting our cities and communities.

The last time our communities and the State were so threatened, was when an innocent woman Veronica Guerin was murdered for telling the truth about the gangs. Back then a Fine Gael government acted. My cabinet colleagues and I set up the Criminal Assets Bureau. We moved fast with new powers for the Gardaí and the Revenue Commissioners. We captured and convicted criminals. We changed the realities. We did the business.
When we went out of office, things were let slide. A stop will be put to that slide when Fine Gael returns to Government. The new breed of ruthless criminals require a new and tougher response. They need to know that there will be real consequences for their actions. No longer can they expect short sentences during which they can continue to organise crimes from their prison cells. Our response will see 25 year mandatory sentences for murder and new powers to control the movements and activities of gang members. We did it before and we will do it again.
We have always been the party of law and order...we still are. Because, on all fronts, Fine Gael knows that circumstances are not excuses. They are opportunities. Opportunities for what is fundamental to the Irish spirit - a wilful determination to break through barriers to greatness.

Look at Northern Ireland; centuries of conflict calmed by a mutual belief in the possible. This week, power sharing resumed in Northern Ireland. What was once thought to be impossible has been made real. Made real by hope. Made real by optimism. Made real by refusing to let the future be constrained by circumstance. Down all the days, this nation refused to be constrained by circumstance. We became - against all the odds - a beacon of light. In great poverty, the world looked to us as leaders in the arts, in music, in literature. Whatever the challenge, the Irish spirit has been one of courage and optimism and a desire to be the best.
That great spirit of courage and optimism must be reawakened by a new kind of leadership, a new kind of politics. A politics of vision and openness and direction and optimism. Because if there is fear out there, there is something more important out there too: the yearning for greatness, the need to express the best of ourselves, the desire for change.
We stand amid catastrophe. But we stand on the verge of massive change. Ten years from now, we will, once again, be a beacon of light and of pride. To get there, Ireland must be restored as a central and influential member of the European Union. I am committed to playing my part in ensuring that the current uncertainties about Ireland's relationship with Europe is ended.

The Fine Gael team here today are practical professionals and driven idealists who are expert, eager and committed. The Fine Gael team are the brightest and the best.
And simply put...The Fine Gael team are going to be the next Government.
In government, we will draw a line in the sand. On this side of the line is chronic waste; On the other is strict controls and targeted spending where every penny of taxpayers' money is accounted for. On this side of the line is caving in, compromise and throwing money at every vested interest; On the other is decisive leadership, straight talking and principled politics. On this side of the line in the sand is bloated, lazy and directionless economic management; On the other is lean, focused and smart economic plans and policies.
We promise an end to all that. I want an Ireland where people count. Where families matter. Where the economy serves the nation, not the other way around. An Ireland where we set out to succeed, not just survive.

Easy? No. Who said anything worth achieving was easy? Good government is not about calculator cuts. It's about direction. Determination. Ireland will be the best. The number one. The world leader. And I know what it will take to get us there.
I know what it's like to rebuild a political party. I know what people wanted, I know what they said. I've been there and I know the hard work, energy and commitment that's needed. Now I want to do the same for our country.


Soon - maybe sooner than people think - the people of Ireland will give us the opportunity to change this country for the better. The Ireland Fine Gael is determined to build is an Ireland defined by merit, not money. An Ireland of pride, passion and potential. A nation where the best in the Irish character finds full expression in positive action, not in crippling cynicism.
My message to a whole generation of young people who have never lived in recessionary times is very clear. I want you to know that we are in your corner. I want you to know that we will fight for your future. I want you to know that I understand your right to live your dreams and to achieve your ambitions in this country, if that is your wish.
I invite you to work with me, as together we change politics and build your future. Politics does matter and I give you just one guarantee - our work will not be easy, our choices will not be simple, but together we will succeed in our task.
Let me promise you this. The men and women of Fine Gael will bring new life, new excitement, new drive to Irish politics.

My team are Expert. Eager. Enthusiastic. They represent all that is good in Ireland - and they will respond to all that is best in Ireland. We - each and every one of us - carry from this conference the capacity to guide our country through recession and point it to a brighter future.
We will take radical and brave action to get this country moving again. We will make this State secure, prosperous and confident. We will lead this nation to a place of hope and achievement. We will lift this country off its knees and turn its face to the sun. It will therefore be my honour to make this country proud again."

Ireland:15,000 Old Age Pensioners Demonstrate Outside the Dail

15,000 Irish Old Age pensioners demonstrate outside the Dail to condemn the FF/Green/PD Government's decision to end universal entitlement to the Medical Card for over 70s. The decision of the Government to backtrack on its original proposal and to exclude 5% of the pensioners from entitlement, has failed to mollify the pensioners who fear that the breach of universality is the thin edge of the wedge to erode other entitlements.

Ireland-Government Surrenders on Medical Cards for Over 70s(Grey Voters flex muscles)

Video requires RealPlayer

This TV3 video features a pensioners rally in Dublin to oppose the governments decision to remove automatic entitlement to medical cards for the over 70s. This video speaks for itself. Government representatives who attempted to address the meeting were prevented from speaking. Opposition leaders Enda Kenny and Eamon Gilmore were loudly applauded.The venue for the meeting had to be moved from a city hotel to nearby St Andrew's Church in Westland Row to accommodate the numbers.

The meeting unanimously passed a motion calling on the Government to reverse its decision to end universal entitlement for medical cards for all over 70s.


Last Tuesday the FF/Green/PD government withdrew automatic entitlement to a Medical Card for all over 70s . Means testing was to be introduced to determine entitlement. In the course of the budget speech some FG and Labour Party TDs already realised that the government had committed a huge political blunder. There was an immediate outcry from the elderly and from organizations representing them. The decision struck terror into large numbers of pensioners. I have never encountered such fury among pensioners. The FG and Labour parties launched a ferocious attack on the measures in the Dail. Within 24 hours of the announcement some TDs in the government parties and indeed some ministers such as Brian Lenihan began to wobble. In addition independent TDs such as Michael Lowry and Finian McGrath declared that they could not support the measures. FF TD Joe Behan resigned from the party.

The pressure continued to build. A vote on an FG private members motion in the Dail seeking the restoration of the entitlement to all over 70s was due on tomorrow night. There was no certainty that the government could vote down the motion. Today the government caved in and raised the threshold levels so as to ensure that only the top 5% of pensioners would be deprived of the card. The new income thresholds for qualification for a medical card for over-70s are €700pw for a single person, equivalent to €36,500pa, and €1,400pw for a couple, or €73,000pa.
Existing medical card holders will not have to undergo a means test. Instead, they will be asked to notify the Health Service Executive if they are over the income threshold. 20,000 people will lose their medical cards.
People who currently have a medical card and who are over the new income threshold will not keep their medical card after 1 January, under legislation to be brought forward.

However the fury has not abated as the principle of universality has been breached. Serious damage has been done to the authority of the government and to the leadership of Brian Cowen. This episode has seriously eroded the authority of Mary Harney as Minister for Health. The grey vote has flexed its muscles in no uncertain terms and will grow in importance as the population ages. Many pensioners were terrified by the proposed budget changes. In addition the budget proposals were viewed as the ultimate insult to a generation that made huge sacrifices in the 1980s when the marginal rate of income tax was 58%. Much of Ireland's prosperity today is due to its sacrifices. The tsunami of criticism has rocked the FF party to its foundations. In addition the Greens have been seriously damaged. A new political force has been energised. Expect to hear more from the over 70s who have emerged radicalised and more confident from the heat of battle.

Today the government backtracked on the application of a 1% levy to all income-part of last weeks budget- and announced that those on incomes below the minimum wage will be exempt from the proposed 1% levy. The threshold for the 2% levy will be lowered bringing in more middle-income taxpayers to compensate for the loss of revenue.

Two u-turns -on one day- are unheard of in Irish politics. Now huge opposition to changes in the pupil teacher ratio -in the nations schools- is building. In addition university students are up in arms over the increase in the registration fee from €900 to €1500. This government could be heading for the cliff of political destruction.

Ireland-Government rocked by groundswell of opposition to medical card proposals forced to backtrack

No sooner had Minister for Finance Brian Lenihan completed his budget speech than Government deputies from FF, Greens and PDs broke out in thunderous applause. However opposition deputies on the FG and Labour benches had already spotted serious flaws in some of the proposed health and education cutbacks.

The Government's decision to end universal medical card provision for people over 70 lit the fuse. The opposition in the Dail was apoplectic with rage. Enda Kenny and Eamon Gilmore spearheaded the attack. Yet Brian Cowen, Mary Harney and Mary Coughlan strongly defended the proposal. Government TDs were slow to react.

Grey voters vented their spleen with a display of ferocity seldom seen in Irish politics. Many elderly people have been stunned and frightened by the proposals. All organs of the media were utilized. Now many backbench FF, Green and Independent TDs supporting the government have begun to rebel. Independents such as Michael Lowry and Finian McGrath have come out strongly in opposition
Today Wicklow TD Joe Behan resigned from the Fianna Fáil party in protest at the Budget citing not alone cutbacks in health but also in education. Mr Behan has accused the Cabinet of being out of touch with the electorate.

Just one question for many of these backbench FF deputies. Why did they not shout stop when the FF/PD government allowed public expenditure to rocket by 25% in the two years leading up to the 2007 general election. The property boom bubble supported this growth in public expenditure. It was clearly unsustainable. Many of these deputies won their seats on the back of benign budgets. It is possible that the outgoing government would have been re-elected without such a massive growth in public expenditure.

Four years ago Richard Bruton FG Finance spokesman warned of the unsustainability of the public expenditure splurge and spoke continuously about the inevitable consequences.. Economists such as George Lee, Dr Alan Ahearne and David McWilliams warned about a property boom crash. They were accused of talking down the economy.

The present Medical Card proposals would not get through the Dail. Any effort to force them through would tear the FF Party asunder. The Independents and Greens would probably desert. Tonight on RTE Taoiseach Brian Cowen announced that he would set up a process to deal with the problem. The Government intends to try and renegotiate with the IMO with a view to securing savings.

It is likely that the proposals will be substantially amended or parked. However FF backbenchers, Green Party and Independent TDs had better get used to bad news. Indeed a supplementary budget cannot be ruled out in July 2009 (after the Local Elections) to arrest the slide in the public finances. In addition there may be at least two more harsh budgets one in December 2009 and the other in December 2010. The Government has scored a huge political own goal. Happy are those sitting on the opposition benches.

Fine Gaels Tough but Fair Budget Proposals outlined in Recovery through Reform - A Budget Perspective

Background to this document:

With unemployment standing at 250,000 and expected to hit 300,000 by the end of 2009 and the general government deficit anticipated to come in at around 5.5% for 2008 the days of the Celtic Tiger are now a distant memory. Retail sales are falling and the construction industry is in freefall. Ireland has been hit by a double whammy. The Irish property boom had already begun to run out of steam in 2007. The international banking crisis has further exacerbated the situation. In addition excessively expansionary budgets by the FF/PD government in 2006 and 2007 further poured petrol on the flames of economic growth and ignited inflation. Rising oil gas and electricity prices have further damaged economic growth. The folly of over reliance on the property market is plain for all to see. . Now a massive retrenchment is called for. Such is the seriousness of the crisis that the government cannot boost the economy. Indeed there is a grave danger that too deflationary a budget may plunge the country into a very deep recession. It may severely damage consumer confidence already at a low ebb.

The Fine Gael Party has come up with excellent proposals to tackle the problem. These were unveiled at a news conference today. They appear in a document titled Recovery through Reform - A Budget Perspective”. It is important to remember that FG as an opposition party lacks the backing of the Civil Service for research purposes. The party has got to use its own resources. Party leader Enda Kenny- accompanied by Richard Bruton and Kieran O’Donnell has asked the paymaster general to cut his wages by 5% as he unveiled Budget proposals that include calls for a 12-month pay freeze for public sector workers earning in excess of €50,000. This cut by Kenny may be symbolic but it is leadership of the highest order. Fine Gael has proposed €1.8 billion in spending savings from the 2008 actual budget across all the Departments, excluding Social Welfare. The party proposals involve 5,000 voluntary redundancies in the civil service, a proposed fee level for banks using the Government guarantee of €1.5 billon and the introduction of an earnings cap of €125,000 for pension relief. It is opposed to any cuts in the Capital programme. Part of the proposals involves no increase in taxes. It has suggested that 30 or more quangos should be wound up.It also calls for an end to decentralization as presently proposed and a carbon windfall levy on power generators (€300m p.a.)

"Beyond these types of measures the Government can still act to help new business and encourage new industries. To do that we shouldn't see new taxes, stealth or direct, imposed on enterprise and commence the slashing of red tape for business that Fine Gael proposed 2 years ago. We should incentivise R&D and upskilling and re-training programmes so that as a country we can move up the value chain and regain our competitive export edge. This approach is set out in more detail in our document and offers a realistic road map for the Government to take. It is not an easy option and it is much more difficult than it might have been if action in this area had been taken years ago. These proposals, as set out are tough but they are, we believe, fair as well.

Commenting on the proposals today, Kieran O'Donnell said;
"It is vitally important that in the budget next week Fianna Fáil do not make the weak and the vulnerable the scapegoats for their failure to manage our finances. That is why I believe excluding Social Welfare payments from the savings programme and exempting those on wages below €50k from the pay and increments freeze are vital elements of the Fine Gael approach to this budget. In addition there is scope still to do positive things for those in greatest need. They include doubling the support for debt distressed home owners, increasing by 50% the winter fuel allowance and extending the back to education allowance for those earning less than €12p.h. These elements of fairness in next week's budget will send a signal that the Government is serious about social justice, but more importantly, serious about changing the way it governs."

Incidentally Enda Kennys two colleagues at the news conference, Richard Bruton and Kieran O'Donnell, said they would also accept a pay cut of 5%.
See full text of FG proposals here .

Is Nicolas Sarkozy listening to the Irish electorate?

Today Nicolas Sarkozy visited Ireland ostensibly to ascertain the reasons for the rejection of the Lisbon Treaty. In reality he was testing the waters in relation to a second referendum. It was a cosmetic exercise which was designed to varnish his push for a second vote with a lick of consultation. His comments to a party meeting last week - that Ireland would have to vote again- angered NO campaigners and a sizeable proportion of the Irish electorate. His utterances smacked of arrogance.

Apparently he now has a better understanding of the reasons for the NO vote.
NO campaigners such as Declan Ganley and Patricia McKenna took a very hard line with him.
Even YES supporters such as Enda Kenny and Eamon Gilmore outlined clearly that this imbroglio cannot be resolved quickly. Enda Kenny stated that a second referendum prior to the European Elections would not lead to a clear-cut result.
Apparently Brian Cowen explained the difficulties in rushing into a second referendum. He spoke about analysis and consultation. Mr Cowen also stressed our solidarity with other EU member states and emphasized the desire to secure a resolution to the impasse which would satisfy all 27 members.

So Sarkozy has been appraised of Irelands difficulties with the Lisbon Treaty. The question arises as to whether he will take these on board or not.

As a first step Peter Mandelson should be reined in. The Commissioner for External Trade is prepared to sell out EU farmers to secure a deal at the WTO negotiations. This arrogant individual is not amenable to reasoned argument from farmers. EU food security is to be jettisoned. Similarly he is prepared to accept that the EU will be flooded with cheap food, often lacking traceability. He is prepared to wipe out Irish agriculture. 50,000 farmers are likely to go out of business and another 50,000 will lose their jobs in spin off industry-if Mandelson succeeds. He behaves like a dictator. He personalises all that is wrong with the Commission. He resembles a Czar speaking down to his subjects.
If Mandelson persists with his current approach, a rebellion by the rural electorate will dwarf the previous rebellion in the referendum on the Lisbon Treaty. (Are you listening Mr Sarkozy?) Who controls Mandelson? To whom is he accountable?

The Commission is undemocratic and lacks accountability. It must be reformed. That is the wish of the overwhelming majority of EU voters. Today Sarkozy made the startling admission to Declan Ganley that if a second referendum were held in France, it would be defeated.

The threat to Irelands 12.5% Corporation Profits Tax is real. It comes from countries such as France and Germany. This is a major issue for employers and employees and has the potential to wipe out large segments of Irish industry. Sarkozy favours harmonisation of tax rates. That is the reality.

Many coastal communities face extinction as Irish fish stocks are plundered by trawlers from other EU countries.

Rural Post Offices are closing due mainly to the liberalisation of postal services by the EU Commission. Often the local postman is the only visitor to elderly isolated rural dwellers. Thanks to the EU Commission this is disappearing.


In addition abortion and neutrality are other major issues, which must be resolved to the satisfaction of the electorate.

Verbal commitments on all of the major issues are insufficient. Watertight guarantees are a sine qua non.

Somehow I suspect that Sarkozy is not listening. Waffle and charm mixed with the stick and carrot is not sufficient. It is highly unlikely that the impasse between Ireland and the EU will be resolved during the French Presidency. 90% of the Irish electorate is pro EU. Hopefully Mr Sarkozy will not turn us into a race of Eurosceptics with unhelpful comments. Show us the colour of your money Mr Sarkozy.

Ireland:Cowen's Downfall-What happened after referendum on Lisbon Treaty went down (Comedy)

Per Damien Mulley

Very funny comedy. Brian Cowen goes to war with the the middle class, working class, farmers, Dick Roche, Brian Lenihan, Micheal Martin, Enda Kenny, Eamon Gilmore, Patricia McKenna and Sinn Fein.

Sunday Business Post/RedC Poll (for June) : FF and FG down 2% on General Election of 2007

• FF 40% (No change)


• FG 25% (-3%)


• Labour 10% (No change)


• Sinn Fein 10% (+1%)


• Greens 7% (+2%)


• PDs 2% (No Change)


• Independents 6% (No change)

Changes since the last poll are in brackets.

Both FF and FG are down 2% on their General Election results. FF has lost a referendum so 40% is quite a good result for it. Successful spinning by the FF Party leader Brian Cowen where he alleged unfairly that FG had not worked hard enough in the campaign has partially insulated FF. In addition Cowen is still in a honeymoon period.

FG has taken a hammering in the media especially in the Irish Times. In addition on last Monday nights Questions and Answers programme FF supporter Noel Whelan launched an unfair verbal assault on FG MEP Maighread McGuinness in relation to the referendum on the Lisbon Treaty. This had an impact on public opinion. Also FF had two speakers on Questions and Answers.
In addition stupid comments from FG MEP Gay Mitchell on TV served to deflect blame onto FG and away from FF for the referendum defeat. Mitchell needs to think before he speaks. He ended up doing FF’s dirty work for it. Many FF front benchers kept a low profile on the referendum issue.
FG leader Enda Kenny has suffered from a prolonged media assault.

Sinn Fein has benefited from its role in the No campaign and is up 3% on the General Election.

The Greens are up 2% on their General Election result benefiting form support for the Lisbon Treaty and from Patricia McKenna’s opposition.

The PDs at 2% are down almost 1% on their General Election result.

Independents at 6% remain unchanged since last Sunday Business Post poll.

Answers to opinion polls appear increasingly influenced by spin. It will be interesting to analyse the impact of the developing recession on Party fortunes. Unemployment has risen over the 200,000 mark last month whilst a huge deficit is opening up in the exchequer finances. Will the resulting pain for the electorate swamp spin from the Government spin machine?
The poll also confirms that the No voters in the referendum were strongly influenced by the abortion and neutrality issues. Also fear of the loss of influence and threats to Irelands taxation regime were major reasons for the No vote.

The latest Sunday Business Post/Red C opinion poll shows major parties support on a par with 2007 General Election Result

• STATE OF THE PARTIES (Since the last poll)

• Fianna Fáil 40% (+2)
• Fine Gael 28% (-1)
• Labour 10% (no change)
• Greens 5% (-3)
• Sinn Féin 9% (+2)
• PDs 2% (no change)


• Inds 6% (no change)

This poll confirms that FF has recovered support since the accession of Brian Cowen as leader. It is now just 1.6% short of its 07 General Election result.
This is statistically insignificant and within the margin of error. Similarly FG at 28% is 0.7% above the 07-election result. This is again within the margin of error. Labour at 10% has the same level of support as that obtained in the 07 election. The Green Party is just 0.3% above its 07-election result

Essentially the four parties now hold the same level of support as at the 07 General Election.
Sinn Fein bucks the trend and is 2% above its 07 General Election result. This may be a temporary bounce fuelled by the oxygen of publicity afforded by the parties leading role in the referendum campaign.

The PDs at 2% are 0.7% below their vote in 07 General Election. The party is becalmed.
The Irish electorate is essentially conservative. Will the developing economic downturn alter this mentality?

Ireland- Taoiseach Brian Cowen losing out in Dail exchanges

There is increasing evidence in Dail exchanges that Brian Cowen is prepared to adopt a more aggressive approach to the opposition than Bertie Ahern. Former Socialist Party TD Joe Higgins said in 2003 that "asking the (former) Taoiseach Mr Ahern a question is like trying to play handball against a haystack. You hear a dull thud and the ball does not come back to you. It goes all over the world, but it certainly does not come back to the person asking the question". In marked contrast Cowen is more combative.

Prior to assuming the mantle of Taoiseach Cowen had been quite dismissive towards Kenny. In a Dail exchange in February Mr Cowen-then Tanaiste- attempted to belittle Kenny on the issue of Mr Ahern's finances and the Mahon Tribunal when he said "You are neither qualified nor able to evaluate that evidence”. This may yet come back to haunt him. The personalised nature of the comment has energised Kenny.

Political journalists assumed that Cowen as Taoiseach would destroy Kenny in exchanges. This is not what has transpired.
In the Dail yesterday (Tuesday) Enda Kenny raised the HSE announcement last week that it was contacting more than 4,500 patients whose x-rays and CT scans at Our Lady`s Hospital, Navan, and Our Lady of Lourdes Hospital, Drogheda, might have been misread. Cowen injudiciously attacked Kenny and alleged that he was attempting to make political capital out of the issue. He came off second best in the exchanges.

Today in the Dail a row erupted when Mr Kenny questioned the Taoiseach about health expenditure.
In reply Cowen claimed that Fine Gael had not backed a single initiative aimed at improving health services. This comment drew howls of disapproval from the FG front bench.
Mr Cowen told the Fine Gael spokesman on Health, Dr James Reilly, that if the heckling continued, he could ensure that Fine Gael leader Enda Kenny would not be heard in the chamber again.
This was a bad lapse in judgement.

Mr Cowen was then tackled by Labour leader Eamon Gilmore on price increases and on the alleged failure of the National Consumer Agency and other bodies to act.
The Dail microphones picked up a comment made by the Taoiseach to Tanaiste Mary Coughlan : 'We need to get a handle on this, will you ring those f***ers.'
The use of the F-word although not used in the Dail exchanges was a further embarrassment for the Taoiseach.
All in all a bad week for the Government and for Mr Cowen.

Cowen to be next leader of FF and Taoiseach

With a procession of Ministers and backbenchers proclaiming support for Brian Cowen from early morning, his accession to the top was assured. Only Noel Dempsey had reserved his position. However he has now decided to support Cowen. Ministers such as Micheal Martin, Dermot Ahern and Mary Hannifin have parked their ambitions.
Aged 48 Brian Cowen could conceivably survive as FF leader for ten years or more.
If such a scenario unfolds Ministers such as Micheal Martin will have missed the boat.

Cowen has served in a wide variety of ministries and as such has plenty of experience. He is conservative in outlook. His tenure in the various ministries was not marked by many radical initiatives. He referred to the Health Ministry as Angola and was glad to leave the Department.
Fortunately for him he is departing from the Department of Finance at a time when there has been a serious deterioration in the public finances. The Department of Finance will be a poisoned chalice for the foreseeable future.


Cowen is talented and does not suffer fools gladly. However his command of the finance brief was not quite as comprehensive, as is assumed by his admirers.
He generally adopts a more bellicose approach than Bertie Ahern. He once showed his contempt for the PDs by stating, “When in doubt leave them out”
Enda Kenny and Eamon Gilmore must reshape their strategies if they hope to dent Cowen's prospects in the next General Election. They cannot allow Cowen to browbeat them in Dail exchanges. Cowen will adopt a contemptuous and strident tone in an effort to deflect criticism. Kenny and Gilmore must think quickly on their feet to score direct hits. Opportunities abound for the opposition parties. High inflation,rising unemployment, a ramshackle health service, a serious property crisis and myriad other problems will provide suitable targets for direct hits. Any opposition leader worthy of the name should dent Cowen's confidence.

Red C poll shows little change in party strength.

A new opinion poll shows that half of those surveyed no longer trust Taoiseach Bertie Ahern to run the country after hearing his evidence to the Mahon Tribunal.
Those saying they will vote in favour of the Lisbon Treaty outnumber opponents by two to one, with 46% saying the will vote yes, 23% saying they will vote no and 31% undecided.


According to the Red C for the Sunday Business Post the state of the political parties has changed little since the last poll a month ago.
· Fianna Fáil 37% (+1%)
· Fine Gael 31% (-1%)
· Labour is at 10%
· Green Party 7%
· Sinn Féin 8% (-1%)
· PDs 2%.
· Independents and others 6% (+2%)


Looking at the 2007 General Election FF is down 4.6% whilst FG is up 3.7%. Labour is unchanged. The Greens are up 2.3%. Sinn Fein is up 1% and PDs are down 0.7%.

Statistically these changes in political party support-since the last poll- are insignificant and within the margin of error. FF appears to have halted the slide. FF politicians and media supporters have fought a strong rear guard action and have emphasized the necessity to tackle the current economic problems. This resonates with the electorate, which is Tribunal weary. In addition the increase in Green Party support is probably temporary. It is in all probability soft FF support which will return to the party in the course of any General Election campaign.

Some FG politicians have placed too great an emphasis on the Mahon Tribunal. FG has introduced a Private Members' motion on broadband in the Dail. The significance of Simon Coveney’s proposals was drowned out in a flood of political recriminations on Mahon. How many voters realise that FG has produced such a comprehensive policy? Similarly the import of the FG Private Members Motion on Autistic Children was soon obscured. An over emphasis on Mahon will not put bread and butter on the table. Voters have other priorities. Also if FG is to progress further Enda Kenny must place a greater emphasis on the economy with concise sharp questioning. In addition the opposition erred in pressurising Brian Cowen on Ahern’s travails. Why should the opposition attempt to bring the FF leadership issue to the boil. This only favours FF. Sensible oppositions allow governments to stew.

The Labour Party is hamstrung by the level of Sinn Fein support in working class areas of Dublin. Labour must attempt to take on Sinn Fein.

Ireland-Who will be the next leader of FF?

Today in the Dail Enda Kenny and Eamon Gilmore attacked Bertie Ahern’s evidence to the Mahon Tribunal. Brian Cowen’s defence was interesting to say the least. He concentrated his fire mainly on FG and Enda Kenny. He gave qualified support to Bertie Ahern. He stated that Mr. Ahern had the support of the Dail and the FF party. He also emphasized that Mr Ahern would continue to lead while he holds that confidence. Cowen’s defence left few hostages to fortune.

Ever since Bertie Ahern announced that he intended to stand down as leader, aspiring candidates for the leadership have begun to prepare the ground for the impending contest. Bertie Ahern’s decision to anoint Cowen as his successor has not deterred Micheal Martin, Dermot Ahern and Noel Dempsey. It has fueled some thinly disguised resentment among likely leadership candidates.

The assumption amongst most media commentators and cognoscenti is that Cowen is home and dry. Nevertheless there is many a slip twixt cup and lip.
Cowen was a strong supporter of Albert Reynolds and belonged to the country and western wing of the party. Superficially he has huge support within the party. Nevertheless much of this support is soft and could desert Cowen. Micheal Martin had links with the Haughey wing. To a certain extent the Haughey and country and western wings still exist within FF. Martin will have huge support from Munster TDs and Senators and from many in the Haughey/Ahern wing. He cannot be ruled out.

In addition Dermot Ahern is able and could be a dark horse.

A vigorous leadership contest has the potential to reopen old animosities. If such a scenario were to unfold Brian Lenihan could emerge as a compromise leader.

Sunday Independent and the casino-much ado about nothing

The Sunday Independent leads on its front page with an article titled in bold black print.-"Enda met casino syndicate partners". So what. What exactly is the point of this article by respected journalist Ronald Quinlan?

• Has he found any smoking gun? No
• Is he imputing any impropriety to Enda Kenny? No
• Is he suggesting that Governments should not meet with businessmen who may wish to establish a project in Ireland? No
• Is he suggesting that the Rainbow government behaved improperly in some way? No
• Is he suggesting that representatives of the Sunday Independent should not meet with FF representatives- in future- to progress business projects? No
• Is this article a red herring? Most certainly yes. It may be factually correct but the heading "Enda met casino syndicate partners" and the sub heading in red "what we weren't told" implies malfeasance on the part of FG. The approach appears to be "Give them something to deny". Perhaps the headline writer should re read the article.
• Is the Sunday Independent attempting to make a silk purse out of a sow's ear? Yes

The Sunday Independent has pursued a virulently anti FG line for many years. It is certainly not independent. It is unapologetically pro FF. Most FG readers of the paper are aware of the political bias. The Sunday Independent is the new Irish Press.

One of the reasons for the demise of the Irish Press was the fact that it was viewed as too pro FF. It had some outstanding journalists. But this did not save the paper. One would assume that in the interests of its shareholders that the Sunday Independent would endeavour to give the second largest political party a right of reply.

There is a vacuum now. Presumably competitors of the Sunday Independent will fill it.