Cowen to be next leader of FF and Taoiseach

With a procession of Ministers and backbenchers proclaiming support for Brian Cowen from early morning, his accession to the top was assured. Only Noel Dempsey had reserved his position. However he has now decided to support Cowen. Ministers such as Micheal Martin, Dermot Ahern and Mary Hannifin have parked their ambitions.
Aged 48 Brian Cowen could conceivably survive as FF leader for ten years or more.
If such a scenario unfolds Ministers such as Micheal Martin will have missed the boat.

Cowen has served in a wide variety of ministries and as such has plenty of experience. He is conservative in outlook. His tenure in the various ministries was not marked by many radical initiatives. He referred to the Health Ministry as Angola and was glad to leave the Department.
Fortunately for him he is departing from the Department of Finance at a time when there has been a serious deterioration in the public finances. The Department of Finance will be a poisoned chalice for the foreseeable future.


Cowen is talented and does not suffer fools gladly. However his command of the finance brief was not quite as comprehensive, as is assumed by his admirers.
He generally adopts a more bellicose approach than Bertie Ahern. He once showed his contempt for the PDs by stating, “When in doubt leave them out”
Enda Kenny and Eamon Gilmore must reshape their strategies if they hope to dent Cowen's prospects in the next General Election. They cannot allow Cowen to browbeat them in Dail exchanges. Cowen will adopt a contemptuous and strident tone in an effort to deflect criticism. Kenny and Gilmore must think quickly on their feet to score direct hits. Opportunities abound for the opposition parties. High inflation,rising unemployment, a ramshackle health service, a serious property crisis and myriad other problems will provide suitable targets for direct hits. Any opposition leader worthy of the name should dent Cowen's confidence.

Bertie Ahern resignation a political bombshell which rocks Irish political scene

The decision of Bertie Ahern to resign as Taoiseach and as leader of FF has certainly caught political observers by surprise. Ahern's decision is typical of the man. He has always jelled with the electorate and was certainly a man of the people in the sense that the general public always found him approachable. Nevertheless he is somewhat of an enigma. It can truthfully be said that not even front bench members could decipher his intentions on certain issues. He was closest to his Drumcondra friends.

His travails at the Mahon Tribunal and the evidence of Grainne Carruth effectively sealed his fate. Increasingly government ministers were preoccupied fending off questions on Mr Ahern’s evidence. It is obvious that the pressure had begun to take its toll on him, as he appeared to have aged immeasurably in recent months.
Undoubtedly a failure to resign could have impacted seriously on the referendum on the Lisbon Treaty.
The verdict of the Mahon Tribunal will play a major role in determining his place in Irish political history.

Clearly his Governments have failed to resolve the health crisis. In addition prior to the 2002 and 2007 General Elections public expenditure escalated out of control. This undoubtedly contributed to the feel good factor which ensured electoral success. In addition in parts of Dublin and Limerick there are major problems with crime gangs. Nevertheless he has had some noticeable achievements to his credit. To this observer the six outlined below are his greatest:

• He championed social partnership.


• He united the warring Reynolds and Haughey factions on assuming leadership of FF.


• He led FF to three successive General Election victories.


• He played a major role in the Good Friday Agreement.


• He was partly responsible for the development of the Celtic Tiger. The Rainbow Government's decision to introduce a 12.5% Corporation Tax rate also contributed enormously.


• He successfully assembled coalition governments with the Greens and PDs

Clearly he has done FF some service.

Harney and Gormley seek a statement of clarification from Bertie Ahern on Mahon Tribunal evidence - no threat to the Government

Today PD Senator- and candidate for the party leadership- Fiona O’Malley called on Bertie Ahern to clarify his sworn testimony to the Mahon Tribunal. Her comments must be seen against the background of the PD leadership race. It is generally believed that Cllr Ciaran Cannon is ahead in the race. This was a nice stroke by O’Malley to garner soft publicity. In making the statement she had nothing to lose.

Later Mary Harney was asked by journalists to clarify her position on the issue. In a carefully crafted answer she agreed with O’Malley’s statement but referred to her good working relationship with Bertie Ahern. She was especially careful not to dump too heavily on the Taoiseach. She said she had confidence in all members of the cabinet. The PDs have signed on for the duration of this Government. They have no intention of withdrawing from the government. They are window dressing. This should not be too surprising as they come from the FF gene pool and have never supported any other major party in Government. A PD apologist speaking to Damian O’Reilly on RTE today waxed lyrical about Harney’s courage. A formula of words is not courage. Withdrawal from Government would indicate serious disquiet.

Green Party leader John Gormley has said Taoiseach Bertie Ahern should make a clarifying statement following the latest evidence at the Mahon Tribunal. Mr Gormley said such a statement would be in the best interest of the Taoiseach and the country at large and could be made at the Tribunal. Mr Ahern is not due to appear at the Tribunal for two months. Both Harney and Gormley were especially careful in their choice of words. Since the formation of this Government they have consistently stated that it is the tribunal's function to make judgements. Today’s comments from Gormley and Harney mark a change in emphasis designed to buy time and mollify party supporters. They mean little else. The PDs and Greens have no intention of withdrawing from Government.

Aspiring FF leadership candidate Dermot Ahern said that FF would look after its own business. That comment is open to several interpretations. Undoubtedly pressure on Bertie Ahern has begun to increase from within FF with several councillors expressing concern. The Taoiseach is due to address the Joint Houses of the US Congress on April 30th so a leadership heave appears unlikely within the next two months. One thing is certain. This Government will remain in power for the next four years. The PDs and the Greens have the political clout of a butterfly.

Ireland-Bertie strikes gold

The Review Body on Higher Remuneration in the Public Sector has recommended that the Taoiseach Bertie Ahern should receive a pay rise of €38k. This will bring his annual salary to €310,000. This makes him one of the best paid leaders in world politics.

It is interesting to compare the salaries of some world leaders:

• Angela Merkel (German Chancellor) €311,778
• Bertie Ahern (Ireland) €310,000
• George W Bush (USA) €284,000
• Gordon Brown (UK) €268,000
• John Howard (Australia) €206,000

The Review Body on Higher Remuneration in the Public Sector has further recommended that around 1600 senior staff including Ministers and Junior Ministers, the judiciary, top gardaí and heads of Government departments and state agencies should receive average increases of 7.3% The total cost of the increases will be around €16m a year.

Minister for Finance Brian Cowen has begun to slash public expenditure which is rising at a rate of 13%. Reductions in front line services at hospitals is further fueling hostility to the Government. There are indications that benchmarking will disappoint many public servants. The inflation rate of 4% remains stubbornly high. Unemployment has begun to rise. This Government has entered choppy waters. These rises will inflame public opinion.

The Taoiseach's salary of €310,000 should certainly add an edge to the leadership ambitions of several Cabinet Ministers.

Ireland-Sunday Independent savages Cowen once more.

The Sunday Independent appears to have a major problem with Brian Cowen. Prior to the General Election it flailed him mercilessly on the issue of Stamp Duty. It then swung in strongly behind FF in the three weeks prior to the election.

The attacks on Cowen have recommenced. Jody Corcoran today in a front page article calls him a "doom and gloom" merchant. Cowen expects a growth rate of 3.5% in the economy whilst NCB brokers expect a 5.5% growth rate. The Stamp Duty issue appears to be at the root of the attack.

When Cowen speaks he has the support of the cabinet including the Taoiseach. He is expressing the Governments view and not just his own. FF is now laying the ground work for the 2012 General Election.


There will be sharp cuts in public expenditure. Within three years the Government will once more have the wherewithal to loosen the purse strings. Public expenditure will once more rocket in the lead in to the 2012 election. A grateful electorate-suffering another dose of amnesia- will once more return FF. That is the FF expectation.


Prior to the 2002 General Election FF allowed public expenditure to spiral out of control. Having won the election Charlie McCreevy slashed public expenditure and introduced a raft of Stealth Taxes. By 2005 the Government was flush with cash. The purse strings were opened and public expenditure reached 13% in 2007. The Government duly won the election. After all the Irish people have short memories. The FF/PD/Green government is now about to adopt the same approach as was used after the 2002 General Election.


The Sunday Independent also carries a front page headline-"State Waste of €10bn in 10 years." FF led Governments are responsible for this. Why did the Sunday Independent support the outgoing FF/PD government?