Ireland:Cowen's Downfall-What happened after referendum on Lisbon Treaty went down (Comedy)

Per Damien Mulley

Very funny comedy. Brian Cowen goes to war with the the middle class, working class, farmers, Dick Roche, Brian Lenihan, Micheal Martin, Enda Kenny, Eamon Gilmore, Patricia McKenna and Sinn Fein.

Hysterical Reaction to Ireland's rejection of Lisbon Treaty begins to die down

Over the weekend there has been a hysterical reaction amongst some Irish, German and French politicians and media organs to Ireland's No vote in the Lisbon Treaty referendum. However today the reaction of EU Foreign Ministers-in Luxembourg-to Micheal Martin was conciliatory. There was no finger pointing. Finnish Foreign Minister Alexander Stubb and Britain's David Miliband were particularly helpful.

Quite frankly I cannot understand what all the panic is about. The Dutch and French voted No in an EU referendum. Were those countries ostracised? Of course not.

Ireland needs cast iron guarantees on several issues such as Corporation Profits Tax, Neutrality, Social Issues and the loss of a Commissioner. It is essential that the 12.5% Tax rate is safeguarded. Otherwise the country will become an industrial desert. It is pointless being good Europeans if we sell out on these issues.

Watertight guarantees on Neutrality and Social Issues should not be beyond the bounds of diplomatic ingenuity.

The office of Junior Commissioner could be created for countries losing a Commissioner.

Greater understanding from the EU on Ireland difficulties in the fields of agriculture and fishing would generate goodwill in rural communities and help seal the deal.

It is time for solutions.

Cowen to be next leader of FF and Taoiseach

With a procession of Ministers and backbenchers proclaiming support for Brian Cowen from early morning, his accession to the top was assured. Only Noel Dempsey had reserved his position. However he has now decided to support Cowen. Ministers such as Micheal Martin, Dermot Ahern and Mary Hannifin have parked their ambitions.
Aged 48 Brian Cowen could conceivably survive as FF leader for ten years or more.
If such a scenario unfolds Ministers such as Micheal Martin will have missed the boat.

Cowen has served in a wide variety of ministries and as such has plenty of experience. He is conservative in outlook. His tenure in the various ministries was not marked by many radical initiatives. He referred to the Health Ministry as Angola and was glad to leave the Department.
Fortunately for him he is departing from the Department of Finance at a time when there has been a serious deterioration in the public finances. The Department of Finance will be a poisoned chalice for the foreseeable future.


Cowen is talented and does not suffer fools gladly. However his command of the finance brief was not quite as comprehensive, as is assumed by his admirers.
He generally adopts a more bellicose approach than Bertie Ahern. He once showed his contempt for the PDs by stating, “When in doubt leave them out”
Enda Kenny and Eamon Gilmore must reshape their strategies if they hope to dent Cowen's prospects in the next General Election. They cannot allow Cowen to browbeat them in Dail exchanges. Cowen will adopt a contemptuous and strident tone in an effort to deflect criticism. Kenny and Gilmore must think quickly on their feet to score direct hits. Opportunities abound for the opposition parties. High inflation,rising unemployment, a ramshackle health service, a serious property crisis and myriad other problems will provide suitable targets for direct hits. Any opposition leader worthy of the name should dent Cowen's confidence.

Ireland-Who will be the next leader of FF?

Today in the Dail Enda Kenny and Eamon Gilmore attacked Bertie Ahern’s evidence to the Mahon Tribunal. Brian Cowen’s defence was interesting to say the least. He concentrated his fire mainly on FG and Enda Kenny. He gave qualified support to Bertie Ahern. He stated that Mr. Ahern had the support of the Dail and the FF party. He also emphasized that Mr Ahern would continue to lead while he holds that confidence. Cowen’s defence left few hostages to fortune.

Ever since Bertie Ahern announced that he intended to stand down as leader, aspiring candidates for the leadership have begun to prepare the ground for the impending contest. Bertie Ahern’s decision to anoint Cowen as his successor has not deterred Micheal Martin, Dermot Ahern and Noel Dempsey. It has fueled some thinly disguised resentment among likely leadership candidates.

The assumption amongst most media commentators and cognoscenti is that Cowen is home and dry. Nevertheless there is many a slip twixt cup and lip.
Cowen was a strong supporter of Albert Reynolds and belonged to the country and western wing of the party. Superficially he has huge support within the party. Nevertheless much of this support is soft and could desert Cowen. Micheal Martin had links with the Haughey wing. To a certain extent the Haughey and country and western wings still exist within FF. Martin will have huge support from Munster TDs and Senators and from many in the Haughey/Ahern wing. He cannot be ruled out.

In addition Dermot Ahern is able and could be a dark horse.

A vigorous leadership contest has the potential to reopen old animosities. If such a scenario were to unfold Brian Lenihan could emerge as a compromise leader.

Dermot Ahern opens Fianna Fail leadership campaign

The Fianna Fail leadership campaign has begun in earnest. Dermot Ahern -in a side swipe at the Taoiseach Bertie Ahern-stated that Bertie had jumped the gun in nominating Brian Cowen as his successor.



The fact that Dermot Ahern would express his opinions in such a trenchent manner is a clear indication that Bertie's authority is beginning to wane. This is reminiscent of Tony Blair in the UK. It was interesting to watch the smile on Mary Hanafin's face as Dermot made his statement.

It is by no means a foregone conclusion that Brian Cowen would win an FF leadership battle. Micheal Martin backed by a huge block of Munster TDs and Senators could mount a formidable challenge.

It is known that Noel Dempsey fancies his chances. Possibly Mary Hanafin could stand.

If the party splits a compromise candidate such as Brian Lenihan could emerge. Interesting times ahead for FF.

Ireland-Who will be the next leader of FF?

It has generally been assumed that- when Bertie Aherne steps down - Brian Cowen will be the next leader of FF and Taoiseach. Much of this belief is driven by the fact that he played a pivotal role in the General Election campaign.




He performed strongly in debates against Richard Bruton by seeking to sow doubts in the minds of the electorate about the Rainbow platform. To a certain extent he succeeded. He managed on most occasions to camouflage inconsistencies in his own position and to avoid questions posed by Mr Bruton.

Now these inconsistencies have returned to haunt him. The Government is facing a deficit of €1.5 billion. Hard decisions on public expenditure are imminent. The Finance Minister must learn to say no. Ambitious spending plans of Ministers may be slashed. This will cost him the support of some Cabinet Ministers and backbenchers. A slow down in the economy could cost him the leadership.

Micheal Martin as Minister for Enterprise, Trade and Employment may escape much of the odium heaped on the Finance Minister. Presiding over factory openings is infinitely preferable to announcing cuts in public expenditure. In addition he will have the support of a huge block of Munster FF TDs and Senators. Mr Martin has been cultivating backbench support.

Dermot Ahern Noel Dempsey Mary Hanafin and possibly Brian Lenihan Jnr will also fancy their chances. Could one of these emerge as a compromise candidate?

Brian Cowen may be the favourite. However a surprise cannot be ruled out. There is many a slip twixt cup and lip.