Ireland-Who will be the next leader of FF?

Today in the Dail Enda Kenny and Eamon Gilmore attacked Bertie Ahern’s evidence to the Mahon Tribunal. Brian Cowen’s defence was interesting to say the least. He concentrated his fire mainly on FG and Enda Kenny. He gave qualified support to Bertie Ahern. He stated that Mr. Ahern had the support of the Dail and the FF party. He also emphasized that Mr Ahern would continue to lead while he holds that confidence. Cowen’s defence left few hostages to fortune.

Ever since Bertie Ahern announced that he intended to stand down as leader, aspiring candidates for the leadership have begun to prepare the ground for the impending contest. Bertie Ahern’s decision to anoint Cowen as his successor has not deterred Micheal Martin, Dermot Ahern and Noel Dempsey. It has fueled some thinly disguised resentment among likely leadership candidates.

The assumption amongst most media commentators and cognoscenti is that Cowen is home and dry. Nevertheless there is many a slip twixt cup and lip.
Cowen was a strong supporter of Albert Reynolds and belonged to the country and western wing of the party. Superficially he has huge support within the party. Nevertheless much of this support is soft and could desert Cowen. Micheal Martin had links with the Haughey wing. To a certain extent the Haughey and country and western wings still exist within FF. Martin will have huge support from Munster TDs and Senators and from many in the Haughey/Ahern wing. He cannot be ruled out.

In addition Dermot Ahern is able and could be a dark horse.

A vigorous leadership contest has the potential to reopen old animosities. If such a scenario were to unfold Brian Lenihan could emerge as a compromise leader.

Ireland-Noel Grealish A Conditional PD

The news that secret negotiations have taken place between Fianna Fáil and PD Dáil Deputy Noel Grealish with a view to him ‘jumping ship’ is hardly surprising. The PD party resembles a ship heading for the rocks. PD members are as scarce as snow in the Sahara in most constituencies. The appalling general Election performance appears to have been the coup de grace.

The PD party grew out of the split in FF in 1985. This essentially resulted from personality differences between Desmond O'Malley and Charles Haughey. There were also major differences on Northern Ireland. The PDs consisted of anti Haugheyites, a ragbag of independents, some disillusioned FGaelers, carpetbaggers and extreme right wingers. Many of its founders-as FF members -supported the disastrous FF Manifesto of 1977 which was a major cause of Ireland economic difficulties in the 1980s. The party espoused low taxation and liberal policies. In reality income tax rates were reduced through shifting the burden to indirect taxation. Taxation as a percentage of GNP is rising in Ireland. From 2002 to 2005 the burden of personal taxation has risen. The PD input in the last FF/PD Government was negligible. The PDs have consistently formed coalition governments with FF. Haughey and O'Malley have departed the political stage. There are no major ideological differences between FF and the PDs. The PDs no longer have a raison d'etre.

Grealish comes from a strong FF background so it is inevitable that he will return to his natural political home. Apparently he is waiting for the results of an study into the future of the party. PD councillors are in many cases contemplating departure from the party. Many will probably join FF. Others will join FG.