Dell plans closure of Limerick plant-Sunday Business Post Report

An article in the Sunday Business Post reports that:

Up to 2,000 job losses are expected at Dell in Limerick in the new year when the computer firm announces its intention to cut back manufacturing in Ireland.....

Unemployment in Limerick has risen from 7,630 in November 2007 to 12,886 in November 2008- an increase of 69%. In addition the decision by Aer Lingus to discontinue the Heathrow service is a further blow to the economy of the Mid West region. It is an open secret that Dell was considering its options. Nevertheless the loss of 2000 jobs at Dell-if realised- would be catastrophic.

Fine Gael beats FF into second place in RedC/Sunday Business Post poll

The Red C poll in tomorrow's Sunday Business Post shows that for the first time since polling began, Fine Gael is 7% ahead of FF.

This public opinion poll however comes with a health warning. Red C carried out their monthly poll for the newspaper on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday - at the height of the medical card controversy. In addition opposition to education cutbacks had begun to gain momentum. The IFA has begun a campaign against cutbacks in agriculture whilst the closure of army barracks has spawned further opposition. Unemployment has risen sharply and will continue to rise in the immediate future. The increase in health charges is highly unpopular. VHI charges will also rise as a consequence of budget decisions. The underfunding of local authorities will cause a sharp rise in rates and water rates. In addition a supplementary budget cannot be ruled out- probably after next Summers Local Elections.

A fall in support for FF is not unexpected. However the scale of the fall is rather surprising. The party is down 10% to 26%.FF has shown a capacity to recover in the run in to General Elections. However the harsh decisions required to put the economy on a firm footing may sap the party's energy somewhat. The results are hugely encouraging for FG and Labour. However both parties must convert this support into votes at the ballot box. FG will underestimate FF at its peril. Prior to the 07 General Election FG rose sharply in the polls but fell back in the final week of the campaign.

• Fine Gael 33% (+5%)
• Fianna Fail 26% (-10%)
• Labour 15% (+6%)
• Greens 6% (-1%)
• Sinn Fein 10% (+1%)
• PDs 2%(-1%)
• Independents/Others 8% (+0%)

Just 23% of those polled said they were confident the Government could manage the public finances out of the recession, down 19% since last month, while 59% said they were not confident and 21% said they did not know.

World trade talks: the reality for Ireland if Mandelson's proposals are accepted

In a myopic article in the Sunday Business Post titled Trade about more than farmers Cliff Taylor swallows the José Manuel Barroso and Peter Mandelson line on the WTO, hook, line and sinker. He blithely glides over the effects on Ireland and gives the impression that only farmers are affected. This is arrant nonsense.

Taylor omitted to state the following:

• At least 50,000 jobs are at stake in agriculture, food processing, agricultural engineering, farm insurance and other services. The last four industries were ignored in his article. These jobs would disappear in the short term.


• Food security would be jettisoned. Have we learned nothing?


• The EU would be flooded with cheap food often lacking traceability. Are not EU consumers entitled to high quality food? It is not acceptable to put consumers health at risk.

He speaks about gains in software, business and financial services. Of course there would be some gains. Nevertheless it would be a case of live horse and you get grass.
These gains would not compensate for losses in agriculture, food processing and services linked to agriculture.
Perhaps Cliiff Taylor might care to view the advertisement from the IFA on page 23 of the Sunday Independent.-Message from Rural Ireland Stop Mandelson WTO Sell-Out. This features the businesses affected. This is not just about farmers. Consumers health,food security and spin off industries linked to agriculture come into the picture.

Obviously Cliff Taylor would prefer to buy a pig in a poke.

Ireland-Red C poll for March shows FF down 6.6% on the last General Election

This Red C poll taken for the Sunday Business Post shows relatively minor changes since the last poll taken in February. The changes are within the statistical margin of error.

% Support for each Party:

FF 35 (-2 )

FG 30 ( -1 )

LAB 11 (+1)

SF 9 (+1)

GN 8 (+1)

PD 1 (-1)

OTH 7 (+1)

However FF is down 6.6% on its 2007 General Election showing. There are several causative factors. Bad publicity emanating from the Mahon Tribunal has damaged Bertie Ahern and FF. However major difficulties in the health service, rising unemployment and high inflation have sapped FFs popularity. Much of this loss in support is probably temporary and will undoubtedly return in any General Election situation.


FG is up 2.7% on its General Election showing. However it needs to consolidate this gain and attempt to push its support towards the 35% mark. It must attempt to wrest more conservative support from FF.

Labour support is up 1.9% on its General Election showing. However it faces stiff opposition from Sinn Fein for left wing votes.

Sinn Fein is up 2.1% on its General Election showing. It is probably a temporary abode for some unhappy FF voters.

Similarly the Green Party is up 3.3% on its General Election outcome. It is probably a temporary resting place for disaffected FF voters.

The PDs are down from 2.7% in the General Election to 1%. They appear to have no future. Sensible PD public representatives will now join FG or FF.

Others at 7% are up 1%. This group includes Independents and the Socialist Party. Votes cast for Others represented 6.9% of the total votes cast in the 2007 General Election.

Red C poll shows little change in party strength.

A new opinion poll shows that half of those surveyed no longer trust Taoiseach Bertie Ahern to run the country after hearing his evidence to the Mahon Tribunal.
Those saying they will vote in favour of the Lisbon Treaty outnumber opponents by two to one, with 46% saying the will vote yes, 23% saying they will vote no and 31% undecided.


According to the Red C for the Sunday Business Post the state of the political parties has changed little since the last poll a month ago.
· Fianna Fáil 37% (+1%)
· Fine Gael 31% (-1%)
· Labour is at 10%
· Green Party 7%
· Sinn Féin 8% (-1%)
· PDs 2%.
· Independents and others 6% (+2%)


Looking at the 2007 General Election FF is down 4.6% whilst FG is up 3.7%. Labour is unchanged. The Greens are up 2.3%. Sinn Fein is up 1% and PDs are down 0.7%.

Statistically these changes in political party support-since the last poll- are insignificant and within the margin of error. FF appears to have halted the slide. FF politicians and media supporters have fought a strong rear guard action and have emphasized the necessity to tackle the current economic problems. This resonates with the electorate, which is Tribunal weary. In addition the increase in Green Party support is probably temporary. It is in all probability soft FF support which will return to the party in the course of any General Election campaign.

Some FG politicians have placed too great an emphasis on the Mahon Tribunal. FG has introduced a Private Members' motion on broadband in the Dail. The significance of Simon Coveney’s proposals was drowned out in a flood of political recriminations on Mahon. How many voters realise that FG has produced such a comprehensive policy? Similarly the import of the FG Private Members Motion on Autistic Children was soon obscured. An over emphasis on Mahon will not put bread and butter on the table. Voters have other priorities. Also if FG is to progress further Enda Kenny must place a greater emphasis on the economy with concise sharp questioning. In addition the opposition erred in pressurising Brian Cowen on Ahern’s travails. Why should the opposition attempt to bring the FF leadership issue to the boil. This only favours FF. Sensible oppositions allow governments to stew.

The Labour Party is hamstrung by the level of Sinn Fein support in working class areas of Dublin. Labour must attempt to take on Sinn Fein.

Ireland-Red C/Sunday Business Post poll shows FF down 6% on its General Election result

The Last Red C/Sunday Business Post poll took place in November 2007. Such polls are taken monthly-with the exception of December. This is the first poll in the series for 2008. Its results are quite similar to those of the Irish Times/ TNS mrbi poll published earlier this week.


It is a more fruitful exercise to compare Red C poll results with the ’07 General Election outcome.

According to Red C, FF support has increased by four points -since the last poll at the end of November -to 36%. Nevertheless the party is down 6% on its General Election result.


Fine Gael is up by one point to 32% on November. It is up 5% on its General Election result.

However the Labour Party is down three points on the November poll to 10%. Labour also secured 10% of the vote in ‘07 General Election.


The Green Party is down two points to 7%- but up 2% on its General Election result.

Sinn Féin stands at 9% -2% higher than its General Election result.


The PDs are unchanged at 2% but down 0.7% on the General Election result


Independents and others drop two points to 4%-down 2.6% on the General Election.

Asked if they believed Bertie Ahern's evidence to the Mahon Tribunal, a clear majority, 54% said they did not, an increase of 12% since last September.

This is a poor poll result for FF as the party secured 42% in the General Election. Much of the soft FF support has moved to Sinn Fein and the Greens. This will in all probability return in the course of any future General Election campaign. It is unlikely that FF would secure anything less than 39% in a General Election. The poll probably understates the real level of FF support. Some FF supporters for obvious reasons are unwilling to indicate their real voting intentions. In the privacy of the ballot box no such inhibitions exist.

The FG performance is impressive as it is up 5% on the ’07 General Election. The party must endeavour to hold this new support with clear-cut policy positions on a wide variety of issues. Fine Gael has been rejuvenated by the influx of ambitious new TDs. It now has a strong front bench, which is more than a match for its FF counterparts. In some polls prior to the 07 General Election FG secured 31% of the vote but fell back to 27% in the actual election. This is soft support. Nevertheless FG appears to be returning to the support levels, which it obtained, in the early 1980s.

The Labour Party is stagnant. It is under pressure from Sinn Fein on the left. It has serious organizational problems in many constituencies. It must wrest working class support from FF if it is to make progress.

Sinn Fein may take some encouragement from the 2% rise in support from the ’07 Election. In all probability it a temporary abode for unhappy FF supporters who will return to their natural party in the course of the next General Election.

Similarly the Greens would be unwise to read too much into the 2% rise in support since ’07 General Election. The Green Party is a temporary rest home for some unhappy FF supporters. The Greens having already sold out on many of their core principles may face retribution from the electorate – a la the PDs.

The PD performance is abysmal. Looks like the good ship PD is heading for the rocks.

Ireland-If there is a slump who talked us down?

Today the Sunday Independent hit out at those who it alleges are talking down the economy.
In an amazing article headed IF THERE IS A SLUMP WHO TALKED US DOWN?
There are quotations from David McWilliams and George Lee and Alan Ahearne. The implication is that all three are somehow economic saboteurs.
Ireland's economic boom was fueled by a number of factors:

• The Irish pound was devalued by 10 per cent within the ERM at the end of January 1993. Bertie Aherne as Minister for Finance opposed this. However the power of the markets forced the FF/Labour government to back down. This gave Ireland a competitive advantage.
• Membership of the Euro resulted in a reduction of interest rates. This boosted the property market. The country was awash with cheap money. The fact that the German economy was in the doldrums kept Euro interest rates low. We benefited from German difficulties.
• A favourable Euro/Dollar exchange rate boosted exports to the US.
• The 12.5% Corporation Profits Tax proposal of the Rainbow Coalition of FG/Labour/DL was a masterstroke.
• Now conditions have changed. The German economy is picking up. Euro interest rates have risen. The Dollar has dropped because of economic difficulties in the US . This has major implications for US companies operating here.We are caught with a double whammy. The astronomical volume of private debt in Ireland is exacerbated by rising interest rates. The building industry boosted by cheap money has begun to contract as interest rates rise. An economy over-reliant on building and construction must restructure. Exports are under pressure further threatening jobs.
• High levels of Stealth Taxes have also blunted competitiveness.
• It is not economic sabotage to point out the facts. It is economic sabotage not to deal with the realities. In saying this I do not necessarily always agree with David McWilliams and George Lee and Alan Ahearne. However it is most unfair to demonise them.
• This country has a great future if the correct decisions are taken.

In the Sunday Business Post today David McWilliams answers his critics with an article titled "Ireland has become a fat, flabby nephew of an ailing Uncle Sam".

Ireland-Mahon Tribunal Sunday Newspaper Coverage

Interesting to note variations in newspaper coverage of Bertie Aherne's appearance at the Mahon Tribunal.
The Sunday Independent as befits a staunch FF paper takes a strong pro Bertie line.
The front page headline is "All-out war:Ahern takes on Tribunal." Willie O 'Dea has an article strongly supporting the Taoiseach under the heading "There isn't a scintilla of evidence to suggest Ahern did any wrong." Brendan O Connor's article is titled "How dare they treat our elected Taoiseach in this outrageous way". Jody Corcoran's article appears under the heading " The rattle of a simple , lonely separated man". The editorial is headed "Ahern cash trail may be troubling but not corrupt" . John Drennan in the article "Murder at the tribunal as Bertie's sums don't add up" hedges his bets. Ronald Quinlan has "Bertie's achievements will count for nought if he goes down as the last FF flawed hero" and is largely sympathetic.
Interesting to see a nonsensical article on FG from John Drennan where he vents his usual anti FG spleen. We can expect more of the same from John.
Gene Kerrigan in his Soapbox adopts a different tone from other Sunday Independent contributors.

The Sunday Tribune is more critical. The front page heading to an article by Mick Clifford is "The Incredibles".The sub heading is "Larkin, Ahern, Wall claim victim status but fail to follow the money". Inside in an article by Mick Clifford the heading is "Bertie, Man of the people vs Bertie, the €1/2 m in cash man" In Kevin Rafter's Inside Politics the caption is "Hit the road Bertie-politics is better off without you". The editorial is headed "Once more the victim, Ahern explains nothing".

The Sunday Times -in a front page article by Stephen O Brien - carries the following heading " Ahern may face a huge bill for costs". Inside there is a two page spread by Stephen O Brien captioned "Just follow the money". Matt Cooper's article has "You try excusing the muddle of Bertie's finances to a foreigner.."

In the Sunday Business Post Pat Leahy has "Tide is turning for Ahern" and concludes with "from now on it' s just a matter of how quickly the tide goes out for him [Bertie]" and Ian Kehoe has "Broadside raises more questions than answers" ." Last Thursday morning , the Taoiseach made a 15-minute statement of robust intent. But the discrepancies it contained may be his undoing". Vincent Browne leads with "Ahern's numbers game just doesn't add up".