FG leads FF by 5% in latest Sunday Business Post/Red C poll

The Red C poll in tomorrow's Sunday Business Post shows that FG leads FF by 5%. There is an improvement in FFs fortunes with a rise of 4% since the last Red C poll. However FF is still down 12% on its general election result. FG at 35% gains 2% since the last survey. FGs support is up 8% on its general election showing. Labour is down 1% since the last poll but is still 4% higher than its 2007 general election outcome. A 1% drop is statistically insignificant. The Greens drop 1% for the second successive month. Support for the Greens is likely to evaporate in the coming months as the economic recession, tax rises and public expenditure cuts bite. This is the first poll since the PDs were wound up.

FG will be buoyed up by its showing in various polls and by a very successful conference in Wexford this weekend. Nevertheless it is likely that FF will come in at around 40% in any general election situation unless FG can break FFs stranglehold on the loyalties of a significant proportion of the electorate. The economic crisis has damaged FFs claims to competence in the economic management of the country. The FG party must improve organization and communication and continue to demonstrate economic competence. Finance Spokesman Richard Bruton is by far the most impressive performer on the economy in the Dail. His talents are wasted in opposition.

The reality is that the core support for all Irish political parties will continue to drop. This opens up prospects for huge swings in support in future elections. It is a moot point as to when these huge swings will occur. Could the organizational structures of the larger parties blunt the severity of such swings?

The next general election is due in 2012.-assuming that the FF/Green coalition survives. If the economy has not rebounded strongly FF will lose marginal seats. This would be sufficient to send the party into opposition unless it could cobble together a coalition with Labour.

• Fine Gael 35% (+2%)
• Fianna Fail 30% (+4%)
• Labour 14% (-1%)
• Greens 5% (-1%)
• Sinn Fein 8% (-2%)
• Independents/Others 8% (+0%)

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Fine Gael beats FF into second place in RedC/Sunday Business Post poll

The Red C poll in tomorrow's Sunday Business Post shows that for the first time since polling began, Fine Gael is 7% ahead of FF.

This public opinion poll however comes with a health warning. Red C carried out their monthly poll for the newspaper on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday - at the height of the medical card controversy. In addition opposition to education cutbacks had begun to gain momentum. The IFA has begun a campaign against cutbacks in agriculture whilst the closure of army barracks has spawned further opposition. Unemployment has risen sharply and will continue to rise in the immediate future. The increase in health charges is highly unpopular. VHI charges will also rise as a consequence of budget decisions. The underfunding of local authorities will cause a sharp rise in rates and water rates. In addition a supplementary budget cannot be ruled out- probably after next Summers Local Elections.

A fall in support for FF is not unexpected. However the scale of the fall is rather surprising. The party is down 10% to 26%.FF has shown a capacity to recover in the run in to General Elections. However the harsh decisions required to put the economy on a firm footing may sap the party's energy somewhat. The results are hugely encouraging for FG and Labour. However both parties must convert this support into votes at the ballot box. FG will underestimate FF at its peril. Prior to the 07 General Election FG rose sharply in the polls but fell back in the final week of the campaign.

• Fine Gael 33% (+5%)
• Fianna Fail 26% (-10%)
• Labour 15% (+6%)
• Greens 6% (-1%)
• Sinn Fein 10% (+1%)
• PDs 2%(-1%)
• Independents/Others 8% (+0%)

Just 23% of those polled said they were confident the Government could manage the public finances out of the recession, down 19% since last month, while 59% said they were not confident and 21% said they did not know.

Red C Poll:Yes marginally ahead with the No side gaining

The last Red C/Sunday Business Post opinion poll on the Lisbon Treaty -before the referendum- shows Yes at 42% a gain of 1% and No at 39% a gain of 6% since the last Red C poll.

The poll also found that among those who say they are certain to vote, the Yes side is even further ahead. However the Red C and the Irish Times/TNS polls have now shown large rises in support for the No campaigners. Dont knows stand at 19% down 7%. Of those very likely to vote-50% of total- Yes stands at 46% and No at 37%.

This referendum is wide open and could go either way. The fact that the number of Dont knows stands at 19% less than a week before the referendum indicates major uncertainty amongst a large segment of the electorate.

Irish Times/TNS mrbi poll shows Lisbon Treaty heading for shock defeat

"The Lisbon Treaty is heading towards a shock defeat with the No side now in the lead, according to the findings of the latest Irish Times/TNS mrbi poll.

It will take an unprecedented swing in the last week of the campaign for the Treaty to be carried.
The poll shows the number of people intending to vote No has almost doubled to 35 per cent (up 17 points) since the last poll three weeks ago, while the number of the Yes side has declined to 30 per cent (down 5 points).
The number of undecided voters is still a significant 28 per (down 12 points) cent, while 7 per cent won’t vote.

The massive increase by the No vote since the last poll has mainly come through gains among undecided voters but, even more ominously for the Yes side, it has lost some support to the No camp.

While the final outcome is still in the hands of undecided voters, the clear momentum is now with the No campaign, and it will take a dramatic shift in public attitudes over the next few days for the Yes side to win.

The swing to the No camp has not been prompted by domestic considerations, with just 5 per cent of those opposed to the Treaty saying they are influenced by a desire to protest against the Government.
The reason most often cited by No voters is that they don’t know what they are voting for or they don’t understand the Treaty, with 30 per cent of No voters listing this as the main reason for their decision. ......................................." Read full story at Irish Times

Latest Sunday Business Post/Red C poll shows FF down 4% on 2007 General Election.

Since the March Poll another was taken in early April in the immediate aftermath of the resignation of Bertie Ahern. The latest figures must be judged against the poll taken in the first week of April.
The following is the outcome of the latest poll taken from Monday 21st April-Wednesday 23rd April. In brackets are the percentage changes since the early April poll.

• FF 38% (-2%)


• FG 29% (+1%)


• Labour 10% (NC)


• Greens 8% (NC)


• Sinn Fein 7% (-2%)


• PD 2% (+1%)

FF support is down 4% on the 07 General Election. Meanwhile the Government is faced with 5% inflation, a 30,000 rise in unemployment in the last three months, a shambolic health service, a likely deficit of €5/6 billion and an increasingly disaffected rural electorate disenchanted with the WTO. Harsh decisions will undoubtedly erode Government support further.

FG at 29% is up 2% on the 2007 General Election. With economic storm clouds gathering FG must aim to drive its support up to 35% to ensure that it will participate in the next Government.

Labour has remained static having secured 10.1% in the 07 General Election. Sinn Fein has undoubtedly eaten into the potential Labour support base.

The Greens at 8% are up 3.3% on their General Election result and are in all probability a temporary abode for dissatisfied FF voters. If we add 3.3% to the FF poll result of 38% we are quite close to the FF General Election outcome of 41.6%

Sinn Fein is static having secured 6.9% of the vote in 2007 General Election.
Sinn Fein appears in recent years to be a refuge for disaffected FF voters who return home in a General Election situation. In previous Sunday Business Post/Red C polls Sinn Fein trended higher when FF dipped to the mid 30’s.

The PDs at 2% are down 0.7% on their 07 election result.

Iowa-Huckabee leads high spending Romney

According to a poll in the DesMoinesRegister Mike Huckabee has maintained his lead over Mitt Romney. Huckabee leads Romney 32% to 26% . John McCain is on 13%. Such an outcome - in the GOP caucus -on Thursday night would be a massive boost the Huckabee campaign and an embarrassing defeat for Mitt Romney. It is estimated that Romney is outspending Huckabee by 20 to 1. The Huckabee campaign has been hamstrung some what by a lack of funds. Nevertheless the candidate is making excellent use of the net and newspapers and TV to propagate his message. This has enabled him to partially neutralize negative campaign ads from Romney.

To win Huckabee must over the next three days

• Emphasize his conservative credentials-he is a fiscal and social conservative.
• Hammer home his support for the Fair Tax.
• Counter misrepresentations of his record as Governor of Arkansas. Here he left a surplus approaching $1 billion and balanced the budget annually. He also modernized motorways and greatly improved education. 100,000 new jobs were created during his tenure as Governor of Arkansas.

Ireland-FF crashes in Sunday Business Post/Red C poll

FF support has collapsed in the latest Sunday Business Post/Red C poll. It is now down 11% on its general election result and 7% on the last Red C poll.

STATE OF THE PARTIES:

• Fianna Fail 32% (-7)
• Fine Gael 31% (+4)
• Labour 13% (+3)
• Greens 9% (+2)
• Sinn Fein 7% (-1)
• PDs 2% (no change)
• Inds 7% (-1)

There are a number of reasons for the decline in FF support:

• The large pay rises awarded to the Taoiseach and government ministers have ignited public indignation. They have undermined the governments moral authority as it seeks public pay restraint and attempts to control public expenditure.
• The cancer debacle at Portlaoise General Hospital has shocked the general public. The HSE which was set up by the last FF/PD government to streamline the health service has failed abysmally to get to grips with the problems. The general public is now apportioning blame to the FF and PD parties.
• Unemployment has begun to rise. There is an incipient crisis in building and construction with forecasts that new house starts may drop from 90,000+ in 2007 to 50,000-60,000 in 2008. There have been lay offs in the building and manufacturing industries. Job losses at Waterford Crystal are the latest.
• Government finances are deteriorating sharply with a likely deficit of €1.3 billion for 2007.
• The collapse of share prices on the stock market has further fueled a feeling of insecurity.
• House prices are falling. So there is now a fear of negative equity.
• There is a perception that the Government misled the electorate on the state of the economy-prior to the election

It is probable that the rise in Green Party support is temporary. Some disillusioned FF supporters may have moved their support to the Greens. This is likely to return to FF in any General Election.

FG support has risen sharply on the back of a strong performance by the new front bench. James Reilly, Charlie Flanagan, Richard Bruton and Brian Hayes amongst others have performed very strongly. The party must consolidate this support and continue to expand its organization. It must aim to replace FF as the largest party.

Labour has also performed strongly. However Eamon Gilmore realises that much more is required.

The PDs are becalmed. Realistically the party has little future. Sensible PD councillors will melt back into FF or join FG.

The drop in support for Sinn Fein and Independents is within the statistical margin of error.