Ireland-FF crashes in Sunday Business Post/Red C poll

FF support has collapsed in the latest Sunday Business Post/Red C poll. It is now down 11% on its general election result and 7% on the last Red C poll.

STATE OF THE PARTIES:

• Fianna Fail 32% (-7)
• Fine Gael 31% (+4)
• Labour 13% (+3)
• Greens 9% (+2)
• Sinn Fein 7% (-1)
• PDs 2% (no change)
• Inds 7% (-1)

There are a number of reasons for the decline in FF support:

• The large pay rises awarded to the Taoiseach and government ministers have ignited public indignation. They have undermined the governments moral authority as it seeks public pay restraint and attempts to control public expenditure.
• The cancer debacle at Portlaoise General Hospital has shocked the general public. The HSE which was set up by the last FF/PD government to streamline the health service has failed abysmally to get to grips with the problems. The general public is now apportioning blame to the FF and PD parties.
• Unemployment has begun to rise. There is an incipient crisis in building and construction with forecasts that new house starts may drop from 90,000+ in 2007 to 50,000-60,000 in 2008. There have been lay offs in the building and manufacturing industries. Job losses at Waterford Crystal are the latest.
• Government finances are deteriorating sharply with a likely deficit of €1.3 billion for 2007.
• The collapse of share prices on the stock market has further fueled a feeling of insecurity.
• House prices are falling. So there is now a fear of negative equity.
• There is a perception that the Government misled the electorate on the state of the economy-prior to the election

It is probable that the rise in Green Party support is temporary. Some disillusioned FF supporters may have moved their support to the Greens. This is likely to return to FF in any General Election.

FG support has risen sharply on the back of a strong performance by the new front bench. James Reilly, Charlie Flanagan, Richard Bruton and Brian Hayes amongst others have performed very strongly. The party must consolidate this support and continue to expand its organization. It must aim to replace FF as the largest party.

Labour has also performed strongly. However Eamon Gilmore realises that much more is required.

The PDs are becalmed. Realistically the party has little future. Sensible PD councillors will melt back into FF or join FG.

The drop in support for Sinn Fein and Independents is within the statistical margin of error.