TNSmrbi Poll-FF support collapses

• Fianna Fáil 33% - 9%
• Fine Gael 31%, + 4%
• Labour 15%+5 %
• Sinn Féin 7% +0%
• PDs 2% -1%
• the Greens 5% +0%
• Independents and others 7%+0%
  On satisfaction ratings, 37% feel the Government is doing a good job, down 15 points on the last comparable poll.

These results mirror feeling on the ground.The Government's attempt to tighten restrictions on some provisional licence holders and the announcement of big pay hikes for the Taoiseach and his ministers smack of a Government beginning to lose touch with reality.

The attempt to clamp down on provisional licence holders -whilst correct in principle-was ill conceived and unjust. If implemented it would have triggered a massive revolt. Many drivers faced the prospect of ignoring the law if they wished to continue in employment. The tentacles of this law would have extended into most households in the country. Young children, the old and the seriously ill would also have been affected through a lack of transport. It is highly unlikely that waiting lists for driving tests will have been removed in eight months. Expect another u-turn in June 2008.

The pay hikes further cemented the feeling that the Government was impervious to public opinion. Its moral authority has been dented. Ministers who have benefited from large pay hikes cannot with any semblance of credibility seek public expenditure cuts.

Luckily for the Government the next General Election will probably take place in 2012. The electorate may vent its spleen in the Euro and Local Elections in 2009. FF fared so poorly in the 2004 Local Elections that it can hardly fare much worse in 2009.

The challenge for FG is to consolidate its support. It must win 30%-32% of the vote in the next General Election if it wishes to smash the FF grip on power. In this poll it is just 2% behind FF. However it is unlikely that FF will drop to 33% in the next General Election. FG must wrest support from both the Greens and FF if it wishes to lead the next Government. Labour must take support from Sinn Fein and the Greens. The support for the Greens has remained at 5% because they are in a honeymoon period. It may soon wither away.The PD support is abysmal. PD county councillors may begin to jump ship and join FF and FG in an effort to save their political careers.