FF support crashes in Irish Times /TNS mrbi poll.

• Fianna Fail 27 (-15)
• Fine Gael 34 (+11)
• Labour 14 (-1)
• Sinn Fein 8 (+0)
• Greens 4 (-1)
• Independents 13 (+7)

"The level of dissatisfaction with the Government is now a massive 76 per cent, while 61 per cent of people are dissatisfied with the way Mr Cowen is doing his job.Satisfaction with the Government is now just 18 per cent, a drop of 28 points since the last Irish Times poll in June, while satisfaction with Taoiseach Brian Cowen has fallen to 26 per cent, a drop of 21 points." The poll puts Fine Gael ahead of Fianna Fáil for the first time ever in an Irish Times opinion survey.

Source: Irish Times

Whilst all polls are just a snapshot in time this particularly survey is sure to shock even the most ardent FF and Green Party supporters. Unpopular government decisions on the medical card for over 70s and severe education and agricultural cutbacks have sapped popular support for the government. Unemployment in Ireland has reached a 10 year high of 6.7 percent and has grown by 60 percent over the past year to more than 250,000. The decision to defer the cervical cancer vaccination programme for young girls has further angered voters.

With a deficit projected at 7% more unpopular cutbacks and rises in unemployment are in the offing. Can the government withstand the inevitable outcry, which will ensue? The next general election is not due until 2012. Ireland faces at least two very difficult years on the economic front. Next year it is anticipated that unemployment may reach 350,000. This will further strain government financial resources whilst efforts must continue to bring the deficit down below the 3% level required by the EU.

In any general election situation FF support would quickly rise to 40%. Much of the support lost to FG would probably return. FF supporters have an amazing capacity to rally behind their party.

FG has benefited strongly in this poll. However the party must learn to consolidate this rise in support. Richard Bruton -FG spokesman on finance- has starred in the economic debates and the party has benefited accordingly.

Labour Party support is also well up on its general election showing in 2007.

The poll is a warning to the Green Party that its support has begun to wane. Indeed the Greens may become the new PDs. The PDs acted as FFs mudguard and have now voted themselves out of existence. The Green Party is trapped. If it pulls down the Government the electorate will hammer it in any ensuing election. If it remains in government it must tolerate more unpalatable measures. FG and Labour can now mop up Green Party support.

Red C Poll:Yes marginally ahead with the No side gaining

The last Red C/Sunday Business Post opinion poll on the Lisbon Treaty -before the referendum- shows Yes at 42% a gain of 1% and No at 39% a gain of 6% since the last Red C poll.

The poll also found that among those who say they are certain to vote, the Yes side is even further ahead. However the Red C and the Irish Times/TNS polls have now shown large rises in support for the No campaigners. Dont knows stand at 19% down 7%. Of those very likely to vote-50% of total- Yes stands at 46% and No at 37%.

This referendum is wide open and could go either way. The fact that the number of Dont knows stands at 19% less than a week before the referendum indicates major uncertainty amongst a large segment of the electorate.

Shane Coleman in Sunday Tribune compares FF and FG support in opinion poll

In today's Sunday Tribune-in an otherwise good article- Shane Coleman states: "FF is at 42% in the opinion polls...... Fine Gael has slipped back to a core vote of 20%. Why is Coleman comparing FF's share of the vote -after the redistribution of dont knows- with FGs share of the vote prior to redistribution of dont knows.

After redistribution of dont knows FF is on 42%, FG is on 26%. FG is down just 1% on the 2007 General Election result.

Undecided voters stood at 15% in the Irish Times/MRBI poll of 16th May. This makes interpretation hazardous.