Obama hammers Clinton in South Carolina

Barack Obama has scored a crushing victory over Hillary Cinton by 2 to 1. John Edwards polled very poorly scoring 18% of the vote. Obama won 81% of the African-American vote and 25% of the White vote. The fact that more than 50% of the Democratic electorate here is African-American made the victory inevitable. Nevertheless the decisiveness of the Obama victory must boost his prospects on Super Tuesday. Caroline Kennedy's endorsement will not hurt Obama.

Many African-Americans had intended to vote for Clinton. The ugly campaign fought by Bill and Hillary Clinton backfired and galvanised them to support Obama. There is evidence that a sizeable minority of white voters in the last days of the campaign recoiled in disgust at the Clintons and voted for Edwards. Obama can legitimately claim that he represents both communities as he secured 25% of the white vote in a three person race.

The Clintons have attempted to inject a racial element into the campaign in a subtle manner. Polarisation of the electorate would ensure that Obama is seen as the African-American candidate and Hillary is seen as the White candidate. The Clinton reasoning is that the White candidate will secure the Democratic nomination. The racial element to the campaign boosted Hillary in New Hampshire. It may yet tilt the race in Hillary's favour. In addition the majority of Latinos will vote for Clinton. Clinton remains the favourite

Clinton pips Obama in New Hampshire Primary-subtle negative campaigning works

Hillary Clinton’s machine worked tirelessly to get the vote out. She won the support of the majority of female voters and very strongly targeted the pro-abortion vote. Her subtle negative campaigning in recent days ably assisted by Bill Clinton sewed doubts in the minds of uncommitted Democrats. The cry-baby episode won her a sympathy vote from females. The Clintons fought like scalded cats.
There is some evidence that the Obama campaign had become complacent and assumed that victory was assured. There was residual resistance among some white Democrats to the idea of an African American president. Obama has failed to fully clarify his ideas on change.

Obama will probably defeat Clinton in South Carolina. The race for the Democratic nomination is wide open. Many of John Edwards’s supporters may now desert their favourite. The destination of their support will be important in determining the outcome. African American voters will also play a key role as will Latinos. The majority of Latinos will probably support Clinton.
Clinton has a slight advantage.