Ireland:Government plans public sector pay cuts-5% reduction likely with further cuts to follow

2008 Exchequer figures released yesterday confirm a 12.7 billion euro deficit in the public finances after the tax take came in 8.1 billion euro less than what was predicted for the year. Last year's tax revenues fell to levels last seen in 2005. At the height of the construction and property boom in 2006, the Government took in €10bn on property-related taxes, almost a quarter of all tax revenues. The government allowed public expenditure to grow by 25% in 2006 and 2007. This rate of public expenditure growth was patently unsustainable. However it helped FF to return to power in the 2007 general election. FG Finance Spokesman Richard Bruton in 2006 and 2007 warned the government of the likely consequences of this policy. These dire consequences have come to pass. Unfortunately the property boom on which this public expenditure splurge was based could not be expected to continue forever.

The crash in Irish building and construction has decimated property taxes. Unemployment is heading for the 300,000 mark further straining government finances. The rise in the value of the euro is increasing pressure on Irish exporters whilst the international recession is further depressing the economy. In 2009 it is likely that Ireland will have a negative growth rate of around -4%. Ireland is now caught between its own internal economic problems and the international recession.

It is anticipated that the deficit could reach 21 billion euro in 2009 without further remedial action. A public sector pay cut is a certainty. 5% is regularly mentioned as a likely figure. It is more likely to be at least 10% in the longer term. Finance Minister Brian Lenihan and Taoiseach Brian Cowen intend to consult with the social partners. Decoded this means a public sector pay cut with the blessing of the unions.

Tax receipts 2.8 billion below expectations-Hairshirt budget anticipated in December

Figures released by the Department of Finance show another sharp deterioration in the public finances last month. Tax receipts are now almost €2.8 billion short of budget time projections.The tax shortfall for 2008 will be double (€6bn) the amount predicted by Brian Cowen and Brian Lenihan a mere 7 weeks ago when they said that there would be a €3billion shortfall in taxes, according to Fine Gael's Deputy Leader and Spokesman on Finance, Richard Bruton T.D .The Exchequer deficit for the first eight months of the year was just over €8.4 billion. This is three times the figure for the same period last year.

August is the worst month on record with tax revenue over 20% short of expectation. It is anticipated that the Exchequer deficit will amount to €10 billion by the end of the year.

Total tax receipts were just under €24.8 billion, with VAT receipts running more than €1.1 billion behind expectations as consumer spending weakens. Stamp duties are almost €500m behind target and capital gains taxes are more than €400m lower than expected. The contraction in the building industry is a major causative factor here. Income tax is around €150m behind expectations.

"The Government has breached the 3% Stability Pact constraint on borrowing. It is heading for 4% borrowing in 2008 as a percentage of GDP. It will in all probability come in at 4.5%- 5% in 2009.

It is time to take out the hair shirts once more. A savage December budget is a certainty.

The excessive rise in public expenditure-13% in 2007- in the run in to the 2007 General Election has further exacerbated the situation. The Government now has nothing in reserve to stimulate the economy. All in all not a very pretty picture in the run up to Christmas

Ireland-Exchequer deficit is €5.65bn for first six months as recession looms.

The Exchequer returns show a deficit of almost €5.65bn for the first half of the year (2.75% of GDP). Tax Receipts at €19.127 billion are €1.45bn lower than anticipated for the first six months of the year. The lower tax receipts are due mainly to the poor performance of VAT and capital gains tax. The tax shortfall for the full year is expected to come in at €3bn. The collapse in the house-building sector has impacted strongly on tax receipts. Only 40,000-45,000 new houses will be built this year. The folly of over reliance on this sector is plain for all to see.

Total current receipts in the first half of 2008 were €19.525 billion compared to receipts of €21.124 billion for the same period in 2007.
Non-tax revenue in the first six months of 2008 was €398 million. This compares to €310 million for the same period last year.

Brian Cowen’s Government must administer some harsh medicine. The country faces swingeing public expenditure cuts and huge rises in stealth taxes as Finance Minister Brian Lenihan attempts to grapple with the problem. Increased exchequer borrowing will also help plug the gap. In addition interest rates will remain high as the European Central Bank grapples with inflation. Increasing interest rates at this time is economic lunacy and will serve to strengthen the Euro further. This will reduce exports from the Euro zone. Irish exports have begun to lag. Much of the Euro inflation has resulted from higher oil prices. So it is arguable that interest rates should not be increased.
Tightening of lending policies by the banks will hinder investment.

Pay rises below the rate of inflation will take further steam out of the economy. There is a danger of stagflation if public expenditure cuts are too severe.
In addition unemployment has risen rapidly in recent months. It broke the 200,000 barrier last month and currently stands at c207,000. Where is the purchasing power to come from if the consumer lacks sufficient disposable income?

In recent tears public expenditure has galloped out of control. It rose by 13% in 2007 in the run in to the General Election and by 50% over four years. Huge tax receipts from the then booming building sector funded much of this. The FF/PD Government erred in not restraining public expenditure. Excessive public expenditure fuelled inflation in an economy that was already growing strongly.
It threw petrol on the fires of economic growth. Restraints in public expenditure in good times would have provided the Government with some leeway.

There has been a tendency to dump on economists who warned that this scenario would unfold. David McWilliams, Alan Aherne and George Lee in particular have come in for strong criticism. Richard Bruton FG Spokesman on Finance has long criticised Government policy. Critics were accused of talking down the economy. Of course this is utter nonsense
Interestingly George Lee was referred to today on an RTE programme as George Gloom. Attack the messenger when you do not like the message. What utter nonsense. It is time for realism.
Some debate has cantered on the dreaded “R” word. The country is either in recession or about to enter a recession. It can weather the storm.

Irish Economy-Storm clouds gather

The CSO says an extra 12,000 people signed on the Live Register in March.
This follows an increase of 8,500 in February. Since December alone the number of claimants has gone up by 30,000

The Exchequer figures reveal that after just three months, tax revenue is €600 million behind Budget day projections and €727 million down on the same time last year. The fact that nearly all taxes are significantly behind predictions (Capital Gains Tax and VAT at €311 million and €253 million respectively) suggests the downturn in the house building sector has now spread across the economy. Fine Gael Enterprise, Trade & Employment Spokesman Leo Varadkar TD has said, "In contrast to previous months, when new arrivals on the dole queue were mostly men, the 12,000 increase in March was split evenly between men and women. This confirms that the housing downturn has now spread from the male-dominated housing sector to the wider economy, discrediting Mr Cowen's assertion that what we are witnessing is simply a 'housing sector adjustment'.

House completions in 2006 were 93,419. Completions for 2007 were 78,027. Brian Cowen estimates house completions for 2008 at 55,000. However it is more likely to be closer to 45,000. Failure to tackle the Stamp Duty issue promptly damaged confidence. Also a 2% rise in interest rates helped to burst the bubble.

With inflation stubbornly high at 5%, high interest rates, rising fuel costs and falling house prices, 2008 is shaping up to be a very difficult year for the economy. According to Fine Gael the cost of Government-regulated services has risen by 45% since 2002 and accounts for one half of all non-mortgage inflation.

The Government has sought to blame external factors. This is only partially true. The Government itself opened the purse strings in 2006 and 2007 and allowed an unsustainable escalation in public expenditure. In 2007 it rose by 13%. This poured petrol on the flames and over inflated economic growth leading to a feel good factor, which enabled the Government to win the 2007 General Election. Now the Government must endeavour to reign in public expenditure at a time when the economy could benefit from a stimulus.
Gradually growth projections for the year have been revised downwards. The country could face an Exchequer deficit of over €6 billion for 2008.

Ireland: House construction nose-dives

In 2006 approx 93,000 new houses were built. In 2007 this dropped to 78,000. The prognosis for 2008 is bleak with forecasts generally in the range of 40,000 to 45,000 house completions. The estimate for 2009 is even bleaker with suggestions that figures could drop to 37,000. In 2007, 20,000 construction workers were laid off
Clearly the bubble has burst.

There are a number of reasons for the slow down:

(1) The 2% rise in EU interest rates is a contributory factor.

(2) Uncertainty on the Stamp Duty issue contributed to the instability.

(3) Excessive house price inflation has priced houses out of the reach of many in the middle class.

(4) The Government tax takes is too high.

(5) The 5% general inflation rate has weakened purchasing power.

(6) Up to 200,000 houses remain unsold.

A major reduction in EU interest rates will not be sufficient to return the house building sector to health. Further reductions in VAT and Stamp Duty are required. The 200,000 overhang in unsold houses must be substantially cleared. A further substantial reduction in house prices is required. General inflation must fall substantially.

The implications for Government finances are quite severe. There was an Exchequer surplus of €2.3 billion in 2006. A deficit of €4.9 billion is projected for this year.
Tax receipts for January and February are 684 million lower than for the corresponding period in 2007 . VAT receipts for January and February are 7.3% lower than anticipated whilst Stamp Duty receipts are down 44% on the first two months of 2007. The unemployment hate has risen to 5.2%. A rocky road lies ahead for the economy.

Ireland -Exchequer deficit for 2006

The exchequer deficit for 2006 was just over €1.6 billion . This was more than three times Government projections. Stamp duty receipts for 2006 were €700+ million below Government expectations, while VAT receipts were almost €400m below the level anticipated by Brian Cowen. In addition public expenditure rose by 13% in 2006. The Government was determined to win the 2006 General Election and the massive rise in public expenditure contributed to a feel good factor. This provided a harvest of votes for FF at the ballot box. The rise in public expenditure was unsustainable.

The Celtic Tiger is no more. It has floated on a sea of excessive government spending and private borrowing. It has grown flabby. The government must take the scalpel to public expenditure. The withdrawal symptoms will be severe. The growth rate for the economy will drop to around 2%. Unemployment may rise quite sharply due to the down turn in building and construction. The electorate will now pay for the good times. This is the same scenario as unfolded in 2002 in the immediate aftermath of the general election.

The rise in the value of the euro against the dollar has insulated the economy somewhat against rising international oil prices and served to depress inflation. Nevertheless the governments record on inflation is poor. Inflation currently stands at 5%. Recently on RTE Tom McGurk stated that Brian Cowen left FG flat on the floor in debates on the economy in the run up to the 2006 General Election. Not for the first time McGurk's analysis was fatally flawed.
The next massive rise in government expenditure is anticipated to occur in the run in to the next general election-expected in 2011. After all the electorate has short memories.

Ireland-Exchequer Deficit Blues

Ireland will have a deficit of €1.62 billion this year, compared with an Oct. 2 forecast of €1 billion, according to the Department of Finance. This contrasts with a budget surplus of €4 billion just a year ago.

The Government must bear much of the responsibility for the deterioration in the public finances. In 2007 there has been a 13% growth in the rate of public expenditure as FF and the PDs wooed the electorate. This paid political dividends as the FF/PD government duly returned to power with the support of the Greens and Independents. Already many of the FF election promises have been binned. Prior to the 2002 General Election the FF/PD government allowed public expenditure to escalate out of control. In the immediate aftermath of the 2002 General Election FF Finance Minister Charlie McCreevy set about reigning in public expenditure and introduced a raft of stealth taxes. He failed to index income tax allowances thereby pushing large numbers of PAYE tax payers onto the higher tax rate. Prior to the 2002 Election FF and PD Ministers denied that there would be public expenditure cuts.

A similar scenario to 2002 has now unfolded in 2007. The Government will once more cut public expenditure and introduce stealth taxes. Over the next 2/3 years it will build up a a financial war chest. As the anticipated 2012 General Election approaches public expenditure will once more mushroom. Brian Cowen and Dermot Ahern -during the 2007 election campaign -strongly berated Richard Bruton(FG) Finance Spokesman when Bruton drew attention to both waste and rocketing government expenditure. He can now claim retrospective vindication. Many in the media have spoken of Cowen in messianic terms.

In less than two years the ECB has raised Euro interest rates by 2%. This has knocked some of the fizz out of the housing market. Stamp Duty receipts have slumped and lay offs in the building industry are increasing rapidly. This crisis has been exacerbated by the failure of the Government to reform stamp duty. House prices are falling and negative equity looms on the horizon. Mortgage debt in Ireland is now €136 billion. There is also an astronomical level of credit card debt.

New house starts may fall to c 55,000 in 2008. The huge slump in property tax receipts looks set to continue in 2008. In addition a tightening up of bank/building society lending policies will further restrict the amount of credit available to house buyers. For too long the government has been over reliant on taxes from the property market to boost public expenditure. One eighth of the workforce is employed in construction. 20% of private sector workforce depends on construction.

Rising energy costs will reduce economic growth.This has implications for unemployment which is already rising. Rising unemployment will further depress tax receipts and damage consumer confidence.

For FG and Labour this was the election to lose.