Pennsylvania Primary: Clinton engages in the politics self delusion-Obama is still odds on favourite for Democratic Party nomination

Whilst Hillary Clinton may have won the Pennsylvania primary by a margin of 10% (55%-45%) and kept her hopes of securing the Democratic Party nomination alive, the outcome only marginally improves her delegate count vis a vis Obama. Barack Obama will fall from a lead of 161 in elected delegates to about 145.

Obama holds a massive financial advantage, with $41 million raised in March and $42 million available to spend against Clinton this month.Clinton raised $20 million in March and had $9 million for the primary available at the beginning of April. However she has debts of $10.3 million, putting her in the red.

There are nine pre-convention contests remaining.It is anticipated that Clinton will win in West Virginia and Kentucky, whilst Obama is expected to take North Carolina, Oregon and South Dakota. Indiana and Montana are at this stage too close to call.
It is important to remember that Independents can vote in the Indiana and North Carolina primaries. The demographics of both are somewhat different from Pennsylvania-both have a younger age profile. Both of these factors may aid Obama.
The Guam caucus is insignificant whilst the Puerto Rico Primary is unlikely to give Clinton a huge delegate bonus. There are some indications of a growth in support for Obama here.

It is highly unlikely that either candidate will have the required 2,025 elected delegates necessary to secure the nomination.
However Obama will lead in terms of the popular vote and the number of elected delegates.
The thorny issue of Michigan and Florida has yet to be resolved.
It is probable that pressure will increase on Clinton to withdraw from the race with the conclusion of the primaries. The super delegates may come under pressure from Al Gore, Nancy Pelosi, Howard Dean and John Edwards to declare support for Obama. This could put Obama over the top.

If the issue is not finalised before the Democratic Convention- in August- the implications for the party are serious. The Clintons will utilize every strategy and stratagem to secure the nomination. If the super delegates were to deprive Obama of the nomination the party would be torn asunder. African Americans would walk. Clinton would lose to John McCain.
Obama is odds on favourite. It will take a political earthquake to deprive him of the nomination.

Virginia Primaries-McCain pips Huckabee. Obama blitzes Clinton

In the GOP primary Mike Huckabee has amassed huge votes in the rural conservative and evangelical counties. John McCain has polled very strongly in the more urban areas. This was sufficient for McCain to eke out a rather narrow victory. The conservative voters are sending out a strong message to John McCain that his platform is not conservative enough. Mike Huckabee's decision to remain in the race has been vindicated. McCain must continue to mend fences with conservatives,build a more powerful campaign organization to take on either Obama or Clinton and engage in a massive fund raising effort- if he hopes to compete with either. His choice of Vice Presidential candidate will be crucial. Mike Huckabees strong performance in Virginia strengthens his claims for the Vice Presidential slot.

In the Democratic primary Obama has blitzed Hillary Clinton. This result is a dagger at the heart of the Clinton campaign. Obama's support was strong among Whites and African Americans, male and female, rich and poor, young and old. Obama has made inroads into the higher age groups, poor and women-up to now bulwarks of the Clinton campaign. It appears that John Edward's supporters have moved towards Obama. A c27% margin of defeat for Clinton may be a portent of things to come.