Economists from Boston University and the Centre for European Economic Research analysed the Fair Tax and concluded that the long term effects of the Fair Tax would reward low-income households with 26.3% more purchasing power, middle-income households with 12.4% more purchasing power, and high-income households with 5% more purchasing power.
They state "While our model is highly stylized, it suggests that the Fair Tax offers a real opportunity to improve the U.S. economy's performance and the well-being of the vast majority of Americans. -source[
Simulating the Dynamic Macroeconomic and Micro economic Effects of the Fair Tax ]
Mike Huckabee statement on Fair Tax:
"But I am running to completely eliminate all federal income and payroll taxes. And I do mean all - personal federal, corporate federal, gift, estate, capital gains, alternative minimum, Social Security, Medicare, self-employment. All our hours filling out forms, all our payments for help with those forms, all our shopping bags filled with disorganized receipts, all our headaches and heartburn from tax stress will vanish. Instead we will have the Fair Tax, a simple tax based on wealth.
When the Fair Tax becomes law, it will be like waving a magic wand releasing us from pain and unfairness. The Fair Tax will replace the Internal Revenue Code with a consumption tax, like the taxes on retail sales forty-five states and the District of Columbia have now. All of us will get a monthly rebate that will reimburse us for taxes on purchases up to the poverty line, so that we're not taxed on necessities. That means people below the poverty line won't be taxed at all. We'll be taxed on what we decide to buy, not what we happen to earn. We won't be taxed on what we choose to save or the interest those savings earn. The tax will apply only to new goods, so we can reduce our taxes further by buying a used car or computer. Our current progressive tax system penalizes us for working harder and becoming more successful. As we climb the ladder, the government lurks on each rung, hungry for a bigger bite out of our earnings. The Fair Tax is also progressive, but it doesn't punish the American dream of success, or the old-fashioned virtues of hard work and thrift, it rewards and encourages them. The Fair Tax isn't intended to raise any more or less money for the federal government to spend - it is revenue neutral. Expert analyses have shown that the Fair Tax lowers the lifetime tax burden of all of us: single or married; working or retired; rich, poor or middle class.
The Fair Tax will instantly make American products 12 to 25% more competitive because the cost of those goods will no longer be inflated by corporate taxes, costs of tax compliance, and Social Security matching payments. When we buy products now, those taxes are built into the cost, so all of us pay corporate taxes indirectly on top of the personal taxes we pay directly. Compliance costs are just make-work with no real added value, yet they consume as much as 3% of our gross domestic product annually. These costs are an especially heavy burden on small businesses, which generate most of our jobs. If you buy a bottle of domestic wine, you're paying the taxes/compliance/matching payments of all the folks who produced the grapes, the wine, the bottle, the cork, the label. If you buy a bottle of French wine, the producers had their Value Added Tax rebated to them when the wine was exported. So French consumers pay those taxes, but you don't. Our current tax system puts our goods at a disadvantage both here and overseas. Other governments give their goods an advantage on the world market, an advantage estimated at 18% compared to American goods. So no matter how hard Americans work, no matter how innovative and creative we are, no matter how superior our products are, we suffer from a built-in competitive disadvantage simply because of our tax system.
A recent study by MIT found that our tax system deprives us of about $1 billion in exports annually. When you export over-priced goods as we have, you inevitably end up exporting jobs and industries as we now are. We are the square peg trying to fit into the round hole of international trade. The rest of the world isn't going to change, it's time that we do. Under the Fair Tax, American companies are far less likely to move overseas and foreign companies are far more likely to come here, hiring Americans to build and work in their new plants.
The Fair Tax encourages growth by promoting investment and capital formation. We have to scrap a 20th century tax system that is holding us back and keeping us down in the 21st century. The Fair Tax is the path to greater prosperity and job security for us and for our children".
-Mike Huckabee
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What Does the Fair Tax Really Do for You?
The implementation of the Fair Tax is predicated upon four assumptions:
Assumption #1 - All active businesses entities in the US, including US corporations, sub-chapter S corporations, limited liability corporations, sole proprietorships, trusts, and partnerships have embedded costs that average 23% and prices for all services and new products will decline by 23% if the Fair Tax is implemented.
Assumption #2 – A Federal sales tax of 30% will be imposed on all consumers, Federal, State, and Local governments, and non-profit organizations on the purchase of all services, such as medical, legal, loan interest, and insurance, and all new products (including houses, food, and prescription drugs).
Note: Business entities and investors will be exempted from paying the Federal Sales Tax on any new products or services constituting part of the business activity.
Assumption #3 - The Fair Tax proposal is defined as being "revenue neutral" in that it is expected take in the same approximate amount of Federal sales tax revenues as comes in from the existing Federal business income taxes, FICA payroll taxes and Federal personal income taxes.
Assumption #4 - The Fair Tax proposal assumes that the IRS will be replaced with 45 individual state sales tax collection agencies and a U.S. Treasury sales tax collection agency to represent the states that don’t have a sales tax or don’t want to be responsible for collecting the 30% Federal sales tax and forwarding it to the U.S. Treasury.
The Fair Tax assumptions have major shortcomings which will adversely affect all Americans, including children, working, and retired not in the top 5% of the income brackets as shown below.
(1) THERE IS NO GUARANTY OF PRICE REDUCTIONS: It appears intuitively obvious to the casual observer that most of tax savings, reduced costs and increased profits resulting from the elimination of the estimated 23% embedded cost will flow to the bottom line and be passed onto executives and investors and not to the customers or employees.
There is no legal requirement for businesses to reduce prices by the amount of any embedded cost elimination savings and no way to measure what they actually do.
Examples of windfall profits by US corporations in the past have a dismal track record. Look at the deregulation of the electric power generation and distribution industry that generated record profits and obscene long-term price increases to consumers; and Healthcare industry advocates stating that the "free market" healthcare HMOs were more efficient but required a 12% bonus to offer Medicare Part C over and above what Medicare was already obtaining from the healthcare industry for beneficiaries using Medicare Parts A and B.
The US pharmaceutical industry manufactures prescription medications around the globe, is given Federal government protection from allowing people to purchase prescription drugs outside the US, and gives Americans the highest prescription drug prices in the world.
Most of the profits resulting from savings for any purpose (elimination of “embedded costs”, moving jobs off shore, reducing employee wages and benefits, and importing manufactured products) went straight to executive perks (bonuses and salaries, stock option plans, and executive retirement programs) and investors with very little to none to employee salaries or reduced customer prices for products or services.
Anyone who seriously thinks a 23% reduction in costs will not disappear long before it hits the consumer prices or employee wages doesn't understand the current implementation of capitalism, business organization and tax regulations, and corporate protectionism existing in the US.
(2) IMPACT ON MOST AMERICANS: The Fair Tax program is a reverse “Robin Hood scheme” that shifts the raising of tax revenues to finance the US Government operations from the business community (reduced to zero) and higher income Americans to the working Middle Class, retirees, and children not in the top 5% income bracket.
(3) WHAT IF PRICES DO NOT DROP BY 23%? If the average cost of ALL new products and services does not decline by 23%, then the 30% Federal sales tax on the allegedly reduced prices from elimination of embedded taxes will increase the costs/prices of new goods and services over and above the current costs/prices for new goods and services.
(4) WILL INDIVIDUALS PAY MORE TAXES? The Fair Tax proponents allege that it will raise the same amount of Federal Revenue as the current tax code. This means that the revenue from Federal business income and payroll taxes currently paid by business entities will have to be paid by individuals and State and Local governments under the Fair Tax. By default, individuals will pay more in taxes over their lifetime under the Fair Tax, not less.
Also, the Fair Tax will result in everyone (children, everyone in the work force, and retirees) that is not in the top 5% of income brackets to pay the 30% Federal sales tax on every service and new product they buy from “cradle to grave”. Since this group spends just about all their available lifetime income on goods and services subject to the Fair Tax, their effective tax rate will be close to 30%.
(5) ELIMINATING THE IRS DOES NOT SAVE ANY MONEY - It is also important to realize that the proponents of the Fair Tax have already conceded the costs of collecting the proposed 30% Federal sales tax are the same as the current expenditures for the IRS to collect and process Federal tax revenues. While the Fair Tax eliminates the IRS, it does not reduce the costs for Federal tax revenue collection expenses.
Other impacts of the Fair Tax mean that nationwide or regional businesses will be dealing with up to 45 separate tax collection agencies (the states currently collecting sales taxes) depending on the number of states they operate in as well as a new Federal tax collection organization that the Fair Tax proposes to establish to monitor and collect the new Federal sales taxes.
Each of the individual states sales tax collection agencies has different organizations, business processes, and penalty determination and assessment policies. Businesses operating on a nationwide basis or large regional basis could find the tax compliance work increasing by having to report to up to at 20 – 46 agencies on a monthly basis.
If you think the IRS can be heavy-handed, you don't realize that state sales tax penalties can start at 25% for being one day late, and quickly climb to 100% penalties. Many state sales tax agencies can come directly into a business to monitor the business and revenue activity and seize cash if they suspect the business of not paying all taxes due.
CONCLUSION: Great for business (taxes go to zero), great for high income earners (top 5%) who do not spend the bulk of their income and disastrous for the remaining 95% of Americans. It will be onerous for Federal, State, and Local Governments; and non-profit entities (now exempt from all sales taxes), and an administrative nightmare to deal with dozens if individual state sales tax collection agencies regarding collection of the 30% Federal sales taxes.
In addition, State and Local governments will have to increase taxes to offset the Federal Sales taxes they pay, and non-profit entities will have less income available to provide services.
In closing, I have grave reservations that any savings achieved by corporations from not paying the business portion of the Federal payroll taxes and business Federal income taxes will result in wage increases or reduced prices for the products and services they sell.
I also have serious concerns about rampant avoidance and cheating by consumers (under the table cash payments, etc.) and businesses failing to remit the collected 30% Federal sales taxes to the appropriate agencies.
What Does the Fair Tax Really Do for You?
The implementation of the Fair Tax is predicated upon four assumptions:
Assumption #1 - All active businesses entities in the US, including US corporations, sub-chapter S corporations, limited liability corporations, sole proprietorships, trusts, and partnerships have embedded costs that average 23% and prices for all services and new products will decline by 23% if the Fair Tax is implemented.
Assumption #2 – A Federal sales tax of 30% will be imposed on all consumers, Federal, State, and Local governments, and non-profit organizations on the purchase of all services, such as medical, legal, loan interest, and insurance, and all new products (including houses, food, and prescription drugs).
Note: Business entities and investors will be exempted from paying the Federal Sales Tax on any new products or services constituting part of the business activity.
Assumption #3 - The Fair Tax proposal is defined as being "revenue neutral" in that it is expected take in the same approximate amount of Federal sales tax revenues as comes in from the existing Federal business income taxes, FICA payroll taxes and Federal personal income taxes.
Assumption #4 - The Fair Tax proposal assumes that the IRS will be replaced with 45 individual state sales tax collection agencies and a U.S. Treasury sales tax collection agency to represent the states that don’t have a sales tax or don’t want to be responsible for collecting the 30% Federal sales tax and forwarding it to the U.S. Treasury.
The Fair Tax assumptions have major shortcomings which will adversely affect all Americans, including children, working, and retired not in the top 5% of the income brackets as shown below.
(1) THERE IS NO GUARANTY OF PRICE REDUCTIONS: It appears intuitively obvious to the casual observer that most of tax savings, reduced costs and increased profits resulting from the elimination of the estimated 23% embedded cost will flow to the bottom line and be passed onto executives and investors and not to the customers or employees.
There is no legal requirement for businesses to reduce prices by the amount of any embedded cost elimination savings and no way to measure what they actually do.
Examples of windfall profits by US corporations in the past have a dismal track record. Look at the deregulation of the electric power generation and distribution industry that generated record profits and obscene long-term price increases to consumers; and Healthcare industry advocates stating that the "free market" healthcare HMOs were more efficient but required a 12% bonus to offer Medicare Part C over and above what Medicare was already obtaining from the healthcare industry for beneficiaries using Medicare Parts A and B.
The US pharmaceutical industry manufactures prescription medications around the globe, is given Federal government protection from allowing people to purchase prescription drugs outside the US, and gives Americans the highest prescription drug prices in the world.
Most of the profits resulting from savings for any purpose (elimination of “embedded costs”, moving jobs off shore, reducing employee wages and benefits, and importing manufactured products) went straight to executive perks (bonuses and salaries, stock option plans, and executive retirement programs) and investors with very little to none to employee salaries or reduced customer prices for products or services.
Anyone who seriously thinks a 23% reduction in costs will not disappear long before it hits the consumer prices or employee wages doesn't understand the current implementation of capitalism, business organization and tax regulations, and corporate protectionism existing in the US.
(2) IMPACT ON MOST AMERICANS: The Fair Tax program is a reverse “Robin Hood scheme” that shifts the raising of tax revenues to finance the US Government operations from the business community (reduced to zero) and higher income Americans to the working Middle Class, retirees, and children not in the top 5% income bracket.
(3) WHAT IF PRICES DO NOT DROP BY 23%? If the average cost of ALL new products and services does not decline by 23%, then the 30% Federal sales tax on the allegedly reduced prices from elimination of embedded taxes will increase the costs/prices of new goods and services over and above the current costs/prices for new goods and services.
(4) WILL INDIVIDUALS PAY MORE TAXES? The Fair Tax proponents allege that it will raise the same amount of Federal Revenue as the current tax code. This means that the revenue from Federal business income and payroll taxes currently paid by business entities will have to be paid by individuals and State and Local governments under the Fair Tax. By default, individuals will pay more in taxes over their lifetime under the Fair Tax, not less.
Also, the Fair Tax will result in everyone (children, everyone in the work force, and retirees) that is not in the top 5% of income brackets to pay the 30% Federal sales tax on every service and new product they buy from “cradle to grave”. Since this group spends just about all their available lifetime income on goods and services subject to the Fair Tax, their effective tax rate will be close to 30%.
(5) ELIMINATING THE IRS DOES NOT SAVE ANY MONEY - It is also important to realize that the proponents of the Fair Tax have already conceded the costs of collecting the proposed 30% Federal sales tax are the same as the current expenditures for the IRS to collect and process Federal tax revenues. While the Fair Tax eliminates the IRS, it does not reduce the costs for Federal tax revenue collection expenses.
Other impacts of the Fair Tax mean that nationwide or regional businesses will be dealing with up to 45 separate tax collection agencies (the states currently collecting sales taxes) depending on the number of states they operate in as well as a new Federal tax collection organization that the Fair Tax proposes to establish to monitor and collect the new Federal sales taxes.
Each of the individual states sales tax collection agencies has different organizations, business processes, and penalty determination and assessment policies. Businesses operating on a nationwide basis or large regional basis could find the tax compliance work increasing by having to report to up to at 20 – 46 agencies on a monthly basis.
If you think the IRS can be heavy-handed, you don't realize that state sales tax penalties can start at 25% for being one day late, and quickly climb to 100% penalties. Many state sales tax agencies can come directly into a business to monitor the business and revenue activity and seize cash if they suspect the business of not paying all taxes due.
CONCLUSION: Great for business (taxes go to zero), great for high income earners (top 5%) who do not spend the bulk of their income and disastrous for the remaining 95% of Americans. It will be onerous for Federal, State, and Local Governments; and non-profit entities (now exempt from all sales taxes), and an administrative nightmare to deal with dozens if individual state sales tax collection agencies regarding collection of the 30% Federal sales taxes.
In addition, State and Local governments will have to increase taxes to offset the Federal Sales taxes they pay, and non-profit entities will have less income available to provide services.
In closing, I have grave reservations that any savings achieved by corporations from not paying the business portion of the Federal payroll taxes and business Federal income taxes will result in wage increases or reduced prices for the products and services they sell.
I also have serious concerns about rampant avoidance and cheating by consumers (under the table cash payments, etc.) and businesses failing to remit the collected 30% Federal sales taxes to the appropriate agencies.
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