Ireland-Red C Opinion Poll analysis

According to the Red C opinion poll in tomorrow's Sunday Business Post there is little change in the state of the political parties.
The telephone poll was taken on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. This was before the provisional licence debacle and the controversy over Ministerial pay rises. The last poll was taken in September.

• Fianna Fáil 39 % (-1%).


• Fine Gael 27% (No change)


• Labour 10% (-1%)


• Greens 7% (No change)


• Sinn Fein 8% (+2%)


• PD 2% (-1%)


• Ind/Others 7% (+1%)

All changes are within the statistical margin of error. PD support is abysmal. That party which has been reduced to two TDs appears to have no future at this juncture. The rise in Sinn Fein support is within the statistical margin of error and no firm conclusions can be drawn from the 2% rise. That party has been quiet since September has achieved little of note. The Greens stand at 7%. This is a honeymoon period for them. Much of that 7% is soft and will probably melt away as the Government implements unpopular public expenditure cuts.

A 1% drop for Labour is insignificant. Labour must wrest support from the Greens and Sinn Fein. FG has held firm at 27%. The party will be pleased with this outcome, as it appears to have held its General Election gains. The challenge for FG is to drive its support above the 30% mark. FG will be confident of mopping up Green middle class votes in the long term.The drop of 1% for FF is marginal. However it is down 3% on the General Election result.